XD INC(02400) 光大证券·2024-07-02 11:01Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [1][2] Core Views - Game Performance: "Let's Go Muffin" has maintained a stable position in the iOS game bestseller list, with its ranking fluctuating but generally staying within the top 10. The game's revenue rebounded after the launch of a new event, with iOS revenue estimated at $32.54 million as of June 30, 2024. Total revenue across all platforms is estimated at approximately RMB 464 million [1] - New Game Launches: Heartbeat's self-developed games, including "Heartbeat Town" and "Sword of Linlang," are expected to launch in the second half of 2024. "Heartbeat Town" has a TapTap rating of 9.0 and over 2.3 million pre-registrations, while "Sword of Linlang" has a rating of 7.7 and nearly 2 million downloads [1] - TapTap Platform: The platform's daily downloads on iOS reached 31,000 in the first half of 2024, a 103% increase year-over-year. The platform's MAU is expected to recover to over 40 million, driven by the launch of high-quality games such as "Let's Go Muffin" and "DNF" mobile. The removal of "DNF" mobile from some Android app stores may benefit TapTap's ad revenue [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue and Profit: Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been slightly increased to RMB 4.71 billion, RMB 5.09 billion, and RMB 5.35 billion, respectively, representing increases of 10%, 4%, and 2% from previous forecasts. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 421 million, RMB 597 million, and RMB 781 million for the same periods [1][2] - Valuation Metrics: The company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 20x, 14x, and 11x, respectively [2] Market Data - Market Capitalization: The company's total market capitalization is HKD 9.046 billion, with a total share capital of 481 million shares [3] - Stock Performance: Over the past year, the stock has shown a relative return of 1.9% and an absolute return of -4.5% [4] Game Revenue Analysis - Revenue Trends: "Let's Go Muffin" has shown strong revenue performance since its launch, with daily revenue peaking at RMB 2.5 million on June 14, 2024. The game's revenue has been supported by in-app purchases and events [6]