Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive and auto parts industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming mass production of Tesla's Optimus V3 and the transition of intelligent driving assistance systems into a "strong standard" era. It anticipates a high single-digit year-on-year growth in domestic passenger car wholesale and retail sales by 2025, with a notable slowdown in growth expected in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to AI themes and market sentiment [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential investment opportunities in the automotive sector, particularly focusing on the synergy between robotics and intelligent driving. It suggests that the L2+ industry chain is likely to benefit from the new mandatory national standards for intelligent driving assistance systems [1]. Summary by Sections Robotics - The report notes that the mass production of the Optimus V3 is approaching, with significant developments discussed by Elon Musk, including stock purchases and plans for production meetings. The report predicts that the V3 may be released in the fourth quarter of 2025 and enter mass production in 2026. It also highlights opportunities for tier-1 suppliers and potential new entrants into the supply chain [1]. Intelligent Driving - The report discusses the recent public consultation on mandatory safety requirements for intelligent driving assistance systems, which will categorize systems and impose strict functional and verification requirements. It predicts that the L2+ penetration rate in vehicles priced below 200,000 yuan will increase, and new components related to driver monitoring and data recording will emerge as growth areas [1]. Recommended Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on strong model cycle investment opportunities in the second half of 2025, suggesting specific companies for investment: - Complete vehicles: NIO, Xpeng Motors, SAIC Motor, Geely [1]. - Auto parts: Fuyao Glass, Wuxi Zhenhua, and others [1][3].

2025 年 9 月 19 日 行业研究 特斯拉 Optimus V3 量产渐近，智能驾驶辅助系统步入"强标"时代 ——汽车和汽车零部件行业跟踪报告 国汽研等。 风险分析：机器人量产进度、智驾推进节奏不及预期；新能源车需求不及预期等。 分析师：倪昱婧，CFA 执业证书编号：S0930515090002 021-52523876 niyj@ebscn.com 分析师：邢萍 要点 AI 主题催化，机器人+智驾同步共振：2025 年前 8 月国内乘用车批发、零售销 量分别同比增长 13%、9.5%；其中 7-8 月累计同比增速分别约 15.3%、5.9%（上 半年同比增速分别约 12.2%、10.8%）。我们预计 2025E 国内乘用车批发、零售 销量实现高个位数同比增速；其中，4Q25E 增速放缓，板块或受 AI 主题+市场 情绪催化。关注机器人+智驾主题，推荐 2H25E 强车型周期产业链标的投资机会。 机器人：利好催化，机器人 Optimus V3 量产渐近：9 月 9 日马斯克在 All-in 峰 会上谈及 Optimus V3 已进入设计敲定阶段；9 月 12 日马斯克增持 257 万股特 斯拉股票（对应 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the refrigerant industry [5] Core Insights - The refrigerant industry continues to experience high prosperity due to supply reduction and steady demand recovery, leading to significant profit growth for leading companies [1][20] - The rapid growth in AI computing power demand is driving fluorochemical companies to accelerate their layout in the liquid cooling industry, which is expected to create a secondary growth curve [2][4] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential for data centers and the computing era, offering energy-saving and high-density cooling solutions [3][31] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of second-generation fluorinated refrigerants will be further reduced by 2025, while the third generation will implement a quota system, tightening supply [1][20] - The domestic production of air conditioners and automobiles has shown steady growth, with production increasing by 5.1% and 10.5% year-on-year respectively as of July 2025, supporting the recovery of refrigerant demand [13] AI Computing and Liquid Cooling - The demand for liquid cooling is surging due to the rapid increase in AI computing power, prompting fluorochemical companies to focus on high-value products like fluorinated liquids [2][26] - Major companies like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. are expanding their production capacities and enhancing their product lines to meet the growing demand for liquid cooling solutions [27][28][29] Liquid Cooling Technology - Liquid cooling technology is a necessary evolution in the face of increasing computing power, providing superior cooling efficiency compared to traditional air cooling [3][31] - The global liquid cooling market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of reaching $4.5 billion by 2025 and $19.4 billion by 2032, reflecting a CAGR of 23% from 2025 to 2032 [3][46] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant and fluorochemical sectors, including Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, Xinzhou Bang, Bayi Shikong, and Runhe Materials, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the tightening supply and growing demand [4][55]

新股预览 ─ 紫金黄金国际（2259.HK） 金矿行业 2025 年 09 月 19 日 背景 公司是紫金矿业的所有黄金矿山（除内地之外）整合而成的全球领先 黄金开采公司之一。凭借紫金矿业在低品位难采选资源勘查、开发及 运营的管理竞争优势，公司已成为一家全球领先的黄金开采公司，主 要从事黄金的勘查、开采、选矿、冶炼、精炼及销售。公司通过全球 并购整合优质黄金矿山资源，并运用地质勘查、研究及开发（「研发」）、 工程、建设和矿山运营能力，以及国际 ESG 系统，使公司能够实现持 续增储增产与高效运营。 概要 增长速度比其他大型公司快：公司从 2007 年收购塔吉克斯坦吉劳╱塔 罗金矿起步，通过全球收购及多个大型黄金矿山的营运强化及扩产， 扩大公司的业务。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日及 2024 年公司的黄金储量及黄金产量综合计算分别位居全球第九 及第十一。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，2022 年至 2024 年黄金产量 的复合年增长率达到 21.4%，增长速度比其他大型公司快，归母净利 润的复合年增长率为 61.9%。 国家黄金储备具上升潜力：根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，截至 20 ...

2025 年 9 月 19 日 总量研究 对非美出口韧性还会持续吗？ ——《见微知著》第二十七篇 要点 引言： 2025 年以来，在全球贸易不确定性加剧的背景下，我国出口仍然维持了较高的 增速。究其原因，主要是对非美出口的高增长抵消了对美出口的下行。我们进一 步深入研究发现，我国对欧洲、东盟、非洲等市场出口增长的驱动因素其实是存 在差异的，这些因素还会持续拉动我国出口吗？本文围绕这个问题展开讨论。 核心观点： 2025 年至今我国出口表现如何？ 在全球贸易不确定性加剧的背景下，2025 年 1-8 月我国出口仍然强劲。分区域 看，东盟、非洲、欧盟是主要贡献项，美国是主要拖累项。分产品看，我国出口 产品进一步向高端制造业集聚，劳动密集型行业从产品出口转向产能出海。 对非美出口增长的驱动因素是什么？ 转口贸易并非出口高增的主因。由于全球制造业保持高景气叠加同比低基数，自 2024 年 5 月开始我国对非美区域就开始保持较高同比增速。在 2025 年 4 月我 国对美国出口大幅下跌时，仅对东盟出口同比增速在 4-5 月时存在明显的脉冲式 上行。 欧盟：居民消费回升是主要驱动力。我国对欧盟出口增速较高的是消费品。主要 ...

Macro Analysis - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of easing, with guidance indicating three rate cuts within the year, aligning with the Fed's dual mandate framework that emphasizes employment risks [2] - The fourth quarter's rate cut is likely to be more of a "preventive cut" rather than a "recessionary cut," which is favorable for risk assets [2] Fiscal Data - In August, improvements in PPI have led to a rapid increase in corporate income tax, positively contributing to overall tax revenue [3] - Government debt supply is increasing, and with accelerated fiscal spending, there is potential for improvement in infrastructure investment [3] - Public budget revenue is progressing faster than expenditure, indicating a focus on effectively utilizing fiscal funds in future policies [3] Industry Research Steel Industry - The steel sector's ROA is at a low level since 2010, with PB_LF still having a 6.67% gap compared to the average since 2013, indicating potential for investment [5] - Companies in the steel sector are prioritizing investor returns, with a commendable overall dividend level; key recommendations include Baosteel, Ordos, and CITIC Special Steel [5] Construction Industry - Qihang Group's float glass business saw volume increase but price decrease, leading to revenue decline, while photovoltaic glass business experienced significant growth in both production and revenue [6] - The forecast for Qihang Group's net profit for 2025-2027 is maintained at 1 billion, 800 million, and 1.06 billion respectively, with a "buy" rating [6] Cement and Chemical Industry - Qingsong Jianhua, a leader in the Xinjiang cement industry, faced significant declines in revenue and profit in H1 2025, prompting a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [8] - The company’s chemical business profitability remains under pressure, with new net profit forecasts of 350 million for 2025 and 380 million for 2026 [8] Internet Media - Baidu's net cash flow remains healthy, with its business model validated in Wuhan, and Kunlun chip shipments exceeding expectations [9] - The AI ecosystem's value is viewed positively, with revised Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 18.2 billion, 20.5 billion, and 23 billion respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qibin Group (601636.SH) [5] Core Views - In H1 2025, Qibin Group reported revenues of 7.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10% to 890 million yuan [1] - The float glass business experienced a significant decline in average prices, with revenues dropping by 24% to 2.8 billion yuan, despite a 7% increase in sales volume [2] - The photovoltaic glass segment saw a substantial increase in both production and sales, with revenues rising by 11% to 3.2 billion yuan, driven by policy support and a surge in demand [3] Summary by Sections Float Glass Business - Revenue decreased by 24% to 2.8 billion yuan, with sales volume increasing by 7% to 52.21 million weight boxes, leading to a 29% drop in average price [2] - Gross profit was 500 million yuan, with a gross margin of 17.8%, down 10.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The market is stabilizing due to government policies supporting real estate projects, although the float glass industry faces challenges from high fixed costs and low price elasticity [2] Photovoltaic Glass Business - Revenue increased by 11% to 3.2 billion yuan, with sales of photovoltaic glass reaching 26.67 million square meters [3] - The domestic installed capacity of photovoltaic systems grew by 107% year-on-year to 212 GW, driven by policies promoting distributed photovoltaic development [3] - Despite the growth, the industry faces challenges of oversupply and declining prices as the initial demand surge subsides [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for Qibin Group of 1 billion yuan, 800 million yuan, and 1.06 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The company is expected to maintain a stable revenue trajectory with slight fluctuations in profit margins due to market conditions [3]

2025 年 9 月 18 日 总量研究 美联储有望开启新一轮宽松周期 ——2025 年 9 月 FOMC 会议点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 相关研报 美联储在等待关税"冲击"——2025 年 6 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-06-20） 美联储短期强硬，下半年或更为主动—— 2025 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-05-08） 美联储"降息的心"始终不变——2025 年 3 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-03-20） 美联储将如何步入特朗普时代？——2024 年 11 月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-11-08） 美联储后续降息路径如何演绎？——2024 年 9 月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-09-20） 美联储降息窗口逐步临近——2024 年 7 月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-08-01） 为什么我们认为9月有望降息？——2024年 6 月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-06-13） 美联储整体偏鸽，9 月是降息关键窗口 ——2024 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评 ...

2025 年 9 月 18 日 从股息率角度分析钢铁板块投资价值 ——钢铁行业动态点评 要点 2025H1 普钢板块 ROA 处于 2010 年以来低位水平：由于行业需求持续下滑，行 业利润处于周期低位，2025H1 普钢板块 ROA 为 0.93%，处于 2010 年以来的低 位水平。 普钢板块 PB_LF 较 2013 年以来均值还有 6.67%的空间：截至 9 月 17 日，普钢 板块 PB_LF 为 0.96，较 2013 年以来均值还有 6.67%的空间，较 2017、2021 年高点分别还有 83%、69%空间；普钢板块 PB_LF 相对于沪深两市 PB_LF 的 比值为 0.53，较 2013 年以来均值还有 1.61%的空间，较 2017、2021 年高点分 别还有 55%、44%空间。 从个股角度来看，目前仍有 12 家普钢企业 PB_LF 低于 1 倍：截至 9 月 17 日， 普钢板块中 11 家钢企 PB_LF 高于 1 倍，其中安阳钢铁、包钢股份、杭钢股份 PB_LF 分别为 2.48、2.16、1.69 倍；另有 12 家钢企 PB_LF 低于 1 倍，其中河 钢股份、新钢股份、鞍 ...

2025 年 9 月 18 日 公司研究 重估百度：不只是搜索，AI 全产业链布局下的价值挖掘 ——百度集团-SW（9888.HK）跟踪报告 买入（维持） 当前价：131.00 港元 作者 分析师：付天姿 执业证书编号：S0930517040002 021-52523692 futz@ebscn.com 联系人：宾特丽亚 binteliya@ebscn.com 021-52523681 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 27.50 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 3603 | | 一年最低/最高(美元)： | 73.25/135.40 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 3.09% | 股价相对走势 资料来源：Wind | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 42.2 | 43.7 | 5.4 | | 绝对 | 49.0 | 59.5 | 57.7 | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | 相关研报 从美股科技公司资本开支看国内互联网行 业：AIDC 行情将如何演绎？——AI 产业前 瞻 ...