2026 年 1 月 4 日 行业研究 2025 年 12 月电线电缆企业开工率创近 6 年同期新低 ——铜行业周报（20251229-20260102） 要点 本周小结：短期铜价震荡， 2026 年供需偏紧仍支持铜价上行。截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 98240 元/吨，环比 12 月 26 日+2.23%；截至 2026 年 1 月 2 日，LME 铜收盘价 12461 美元/吨，环比 12 月 24 日+3.36%。（1） 宏观：美国铜关税预期仍导致全球铜库存持续流向美国，COMEX 铜库存持续新 高。（2）供需：国家发改委 12 月 26 日强调对铜冶炼等产业强化管理和优化布 局，中国铜冶炼产能增长或受限。12 月线缆企业开工率创近 6 年新低，铜价大 涨对需求有压制；但展望 2026 年，供需依然偏紧，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+23%，LME 铜库存环比-7%。（1）港口铜精矿库存： 截至2025年12月31日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存64.6 万吨，环比上周-16.7%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，全球三大交易所库存合 ...

2026 年 1 月 4 日 行业研究 保费"开门红"或超预期，资负共振推动股价上行 ——近期港股保险上涨点评 非银行金融 增持（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：黄怡婷 执业证书编号：S0930524070003 010-57378023 huangyiting@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 赤羽乘风，资负排云——保险行业 2026 年度 投资策略（2025-12-31） 从 2025 年以来上市险企资产端看权益投资 新变化：二十问二十答——保险机构资产负 债行为系列报告之一（2025-12-21） 完善资产负债监管框架，提升行业长期经营 韧性——《保险公司资产负债管理办法（征 求意见稿）》点评（2025-12-21） 股票风险因子差异化下调，推动险资进一步 发挥耐心资本优势——《关于调整保险公司 相 关 业 务 风 险 因 子 的 通 知 》 点 评 （2025-12-06） 长周期考核权重升至 70%，利好险资加大入 市力度——《进一步加强国有商 ...

2026 年 1 月 3 日 行业研究 4Q25 特斯拉交付低于预期，2026E 以旧换新补贴延续或提振销量 12 月蔚来重回新势力榜首：1）蔚来交付量同比+54.6%/环比+32.7%至 48,135 辆（NIO 品牌同比+54.8%/环比+75.4%至 31,897 辆、乐道品牌同比-13.1%/环 比-21.9%至 9,154 辆）；2）理想交付量同比-24.4%/环比+33.3%至 44,246 辆； 3）小鹏交付量同比+2.2%/环比+2.1%至 37,508 辆。 新年购车优惠陆续推出：特斯拉：国产 Model 3 全系将于 2026/2 交付， Model Y 长续航版本维持 2026/2 交付、后轮驱动版本维持 2026/1 交付，Model YL 将 于 2026/2 交付；Model 3 和 Model Y 延续 5 年 0 息金融政策，Model YL 延续 3 年 0 息金融政策。新势力：1）理想：L6 交付周期维持 1-3 周，MEGA 交付周期 维持 1-4 周，i8 交付周期维持 2-4 周，L9 交付周期维持 1-5 周（vs. 12 月为 3-5 周），L7 和 L8 交付周 ...

2026 年 1 月 3 日 行业研究 公募销售新规落地，理财配置如何演变？ ——《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》点评 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com 点评： 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 如何看待理财三季报的 3 个"异象"？——《中国 银行业理财市场季度报告（2025 年三季度）》点 评（2025-10-24） 公募销售新规对银行理财影响几何？——《公开募 集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见 稿）》点评（2025-9-9） 2Q 平稳收官，下半年还有哪些关注点？——《中 国银行业理财市场半年报告（2025 年上）》点评 （2025-7-27） 1、公募销售新规正式落地，赎回费、过渡期等政策安排较《征求意见稿》有调优 震荡中前行——《中国银行业理财市场季度报告 （2025 年一季度）》点评 2025-4-24 要点 事件： 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 510-520 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 59%-62% [1] - The company anticipates significant growth in mineral production for 2025, with gold production expected to increase by 23% and copper production by 2% [2] - The report highlights a favorable outlook for gold and copper prices due to a weakening US dollar and supply-demand dynamics, supporting the company's profitability [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of approximately 475-485 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses for 2025, which is a year-on-year increase of about 50%-53% [1] - For Q4 2025, the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is around 136 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 77% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.4% [1] Production Outlook - The company projects mineral production for 2026 to grow by 17% for gold, 10% for copper, 19% for silver, and 380% for lithium carbonate [2] - The planned production for 2026 includes 105 tons of gold, 1.2 million tons of copper, 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and 520 tons of silver [2] Price Trends - The average spot price of gold in London from October 1, 2025, to December 29, 2025, is expected to be 4,164 USD/ounce, a 56% increase from Q4 2024 and a 19% increase from Q3 2025 [2] - The average price of copper on the LME is projected to be 11,048 USD/ton, marking a 19% increase from Q4 2024 and a 12% increase from Q3 2025 [2] Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts the company's profit forecast based on rising gold and copper prices, estimating net profits of 515.1 billion yuan, 755.0 billion yuan, and 815.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 61%, 47%, and 8% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17, 12, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the agrochemical products industry. 2. Core Viewpoints The agrochemical products industry has stable demand supported by the "stable grain supply" policy and the growth of fertilizer and pesticide exports. The supply - side ecosystem is expected to optimize under the "anti - involution" policy, and the industry's profitability is expected to increase. Policy support for food security has strengthened the demand for agrochemical products, and multi - dimensional factors such as domestic consumption and exports have further boosted the demand. Meanwhile, the supply - side reform in the fertilizer and pesticide sectors is promoting industry concentration and high - quality development [1][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Agrochemical Products Industry Overview - **Policy Support and Demand Foundation**: The government has continuously strengthened food security policies. In 2025, the national grain output reached 14297.5 billion jin, an increase of 1.2% year - on - year, providing core support for agrochemical product demand. Domestic food consumption is rigid, and the demand for agrochemical products is driven by multiple factors such as domestic food, feed consumption, and exports. In 2025, from January to November, the export volume of fertilizers increased by 45.52% year - on - year, and the export volume of pesticides also increased significantly [12][13]. - **Supply - side Optimization**: The government and the industry are jointly promoting "anti - involution." The Chinese Pesticide Industry Association launched a three - year "Rectifying Involution" action, and the Chinese Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association issued an initiative to strengthen industry self - discipline. As backward production capacity exits and new capacity is limited, the industry ecosystem is expected to improve [14]. 3.2 Fertilizer Industry - **Industry Chain and Supply - side Reform**: The fertilizer industry includes phosphate fertilizers, nitrogen fertilizers, potassium fertilizers, and compound fertilizers. In recent years, the supply - side reform has advanced, with an increase in fertilizer production but a decrease in application and an improvement in utilization efficiency. In 2025, from January to November, the export volume of fertilizers increased by 45.52% year - on - year, mainly driven by nitrogen fertilizers and compound fertilizers, while the import volume decreased by 1.22% year - on - year [15][20]. - **Phosphate Fertilizer Sub - sector**: The supply of phosphate fertilizers is restricted by phosphate rock resources. In 2025, from January to November, the production of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate decreased year - on - year. The price of phosphate fertilizers has been rising due to the tight balance of phosphate rock supply and demand and strict policies on new phosphate ammonium capacity [32][54]. 3.3 Pesticide Industry - **Industry Structure and Policy - driven Supply Improvement**: Pesticides are used for pest control and plant growth regulation. China is the world's largest producer of pesticide technicals, but there is a problem of over - capacity. In 2025, the Chinese Pesticide Industry Association proposed a three - year "Rectifying Involution" action plan, and new policies such as the revised "Pesticide Registration Management Method" will optimize the industry's competition pattern [61][62]. - **Production, Demand, and Price Trends**: In 2025, from January to November, the growth rate of China's pesticide technical production decreased, but the export volume increased. The global demand for pesticides is rigid, and pesticide prices are expected to recover as over - capacity is alleviated [63][71]. - **Glyphosate Sub - sector**: Glyphosate is the most widely used single - product pesticide globally. Policy restricts new capacity, and the inventory has been decreasing since 2025. The growth of global transgenic crop planting area drives the demand and export of glyphosate, and the price is expected to rise, and the industry's prosperity is expected to increase [75][90]. 3.4 Agrochemical Products Industry Convertible Bonds Basic Situation - **General Information**: As of December 26, 2025, the outstanding balance of convertible bonds in the agrochemical products industry totaled 9.767 billion yuan, accounting for 25.27% of the convertible bond balance in the basic chemical industry. The un - converted ratio of all convertible bonds is over 90%, and the credit ratings range from AA - to AA + [91][94]. - **Trading and Valuation**: The trading volume of Hebang Convertible Bonds is the highest, with an annual trading volume exceeding 24 billion yuan. Since 2025, both the prices of agrochemical convertible bonds and their underlying stocks have risen, and the price increase of underlying stocks is generally stronger than that of convertible bonds. All agrochemical convertible bonds are balanced - type, with Yangfeng Convertible Bonds having a relatively high conversion premium rate of over 40% [95][99]. - **Financial Performance**: From Q1 to Q3 in 2025, the profitability of most issuers of agrochemical convertible bonds has recovered. The operating net cash flow of most issuers has shown continuous inflow or improvement, and the asset - liability ratio at the end of Q3 in 2025 is generally controllable [3][103]. 3.5 Individual Bond Situations - **Xingfa Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Xingfa Group, is a leading enterprise in the phosphate chemical industry, with advantages in phosphate rock mining rights and power costs. It has a complete phosphate chemical industry chain, and its new energy materials business is advancing. In 2025, from Q1 to Q3, its profitability was stable, and the net profit increased year - on - year [108][110]. - **Suli Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Suli Co., Ltd., is engaged in pesticides, flame retardants, and other fine chemical products. In 2025, the demand in the agrochemical market recovered, and the quantity and price of its products such as chlorothalonil and decabromodiphenylethane increased, driving the growth of the company's performance [111][112]. - **Fengshan Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Fengshan Group, is involved in pesticides, new energy electronic chemicals, and fine chemical new materials. In 2025, the company's net profit turned from loss to profit in the first three quarters, and its operating performance improved [113][115]. - **Hebang Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Hebang Biotech, is engaged in mining, chemicals, photovoltaic glass, etc. The company has strengthened its mining layout, and the phosphate rock business has been prosperous. Since the second quarter of 2025, the quantity and price of glyphosate have increased [116][117]. - **Yangfeng Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, New Yangfeng, is a leading enterprise in phosphate compound fertilizers. It has a complete industrial chain layout, and its new fertilizer business is developing. In 2025, from Q1 to Q3, its profitability was stable, and the net profit increased year - on - year [118][119].

2025 年 12 月 31 日 总量研究 PMI 重回扩张区间，助力全年经济圆满收官 ——2025 年 12 月 PMI 点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 相关研报 出口改善推动制造业 PMI 回稳——2025 年 11 月 PMI 点评（2025-11-30） 制造业 PMI 为何超季节性回落？——2025 年 10 月 PMI 点评（2025-10-31） 制造业 PMI 连续两个月回升，后续怎么看？ ——2025 年 9 月 PMI 点评（2025-09-30） 8 月经济运行的三点特征——2025 年 8 月 PMI 点评（2025-08-31） 7 月制造业 PMI 缘何回落？——2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评（2025-07-31） 外部扰动减弱，内生动能修复——2025 年 6 月 PMI 点评（2025-06-30） "抢出口"带动制造业 PMI 回暖——2025 年 5 月 PMI 点评（2025- ...

Group 1 - The insurance sector is expected to deepen its transformation and maintain a recovery trend in fundamentals through 2026 [4][7] - In 2025, the insurance sector outperformed the market with a cumulative increase of 27.0%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 8.8 percentage points, driven by strong growth in new business value (NBV) and improved investment returns [5][10] - The life insurance segment is seeing a stabilization in agent workforce and positive growth in new policies, supported by bank insurance and improved NBV margins [5][20] Group 2 - The property insurance segment is experiencing a slowdown in premium growth but is optimizing its business structure, with a focus on non-auto insurance [22] - The investment side of the insurance companies is benefiting from a rising equity market, with a projected increase in total investment returns and net profits expected to rise by 33.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters [5][7] - The high savings preference among residents and the reduction in bank deposit rates are expected to make participating insurance products with a guaranteed return of 1.75% more competitive in the market [7][8] Group 3 - The life insurance sector is projected to see continued growth in new business value, driven by the popularity of participating insurance products and the effective management of costs through the "reporting and operation integration" strategy [5][20] - The property insurance sector is expected to maintain its favorable conditions, with the "reporting and operation integration" policy further optimizing the combined ratio (COR) [5][22] - Investment strategies focusing on high dividend yields are anticipated to provide a safety net for net investment income, contributing to profit stability [7][8]

公司研究 心律管理业务重组合并，母公司亏损如期收窄中 2025 年 12 月 31 日 ——微创医疗（0853.HK）跟踪点评 要点 事件：公司近期公告 1）根据微创医疗集团会计政策其无法控制微创脑科学但仍 对其保持重大影响力，故终止合并微创脑科学，构成须予披露交易。2）微创心 通召开股东大会，审议通过并购微创心律管理有限公司的重大资产重组议案。此 次并购将推动微创医疗旗下结构性心脏病与心律管理两大核心业务板块的深度 整合。 点评： 治理结构改善注入新动能，出海业务成为核心增长引擎。公司治理层面，上实资 本旗下基金成为公司重要战略股东，有望在治理和业务发展方面注入新动能。公 司近期完成心律管理与结构性心脏病业务的重组，旨在打造综合心脏病平台，新 公司将融合微创心律管理的 AI 诊断及算法技术，与微创心通在结构性心脏病介 入治疗、输送系统及生物材料方面的技术积累，打造"结构性心脏病+心律管理 +心衰管理"一体化平台。公司亦公告终止合并微创脑科学，我们认为治理改善 持续推进中。同时，公司积极搭建全球通商业化平台，助力各业务板块产品出海， 25H1 出海业务收入已达 5,980 万美元，同比增长 57.3%，有效对 ...

2025 年 12 月 31 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】关注春季行情——2026 年 1 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 2026 年 1 月 A 股金股组合：顺络电子、中际旭创、新易盛、中芯国际、中国石油、 中国石化、海尔智家、工商银行、紫金矿业、上海临港。 2026 年 1 月港股金股组合： 阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股、中芯国际、华虹半导体、越疆、金风科技。 【金工】核心稳固，边际灵活：增量加速与定价权提升下的南向资金配置格局——南 向资金跟踪 南向资金规模与配置节奏显著加速，已成为港股流动性与定价的重要支撑。资金由情 绪与套利驱动转向以基本面为核心的长期配置，在行业轮动与估值形成中逐步扮演 "定价锚"角色。结构上，行业配置由金融地产主导演进为"金融+科技+消费"的多 元格局。2025 年以来，南向资金呈现"核心配置稳固、边际行业灵活轮动"的特征， 个股上增量集中于优质龙头，总体看对港股中长期定价权持续提升。 行业研究 | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3965.12 | 0.00 | | 沪深 300 ...