中国制造业，如何从比较优势迈向竞争优势？

Global Trade and Economic Trends - From 1995 to 2005, developed economies maintained stable growth despite the dot-com bubble, with no severe inflation or unemployment spikes, partly due to cheap exports from developing countries like China[2] - China's exports to the U.S. shifted from low-value to high-value goods between 2000 and 2022, with U.S. import prices from China declining significantly from 2012 to 2020[9] - China's global value chain position has risen since 2008, with rapid progress in high-end manufacturing, narrowing the gap with the U.S. in both value-added and value chain indices[6] Manufacturing and Industrial Shifts - China's manufacturing is transitioning from comparative advantage to competitive advantage, pressuring high-value industries in developed economies[6] - In 2024, three industries (food, non-metallic mineral products, and automotive) had capacity utilization rates below the international standard of 70-78%, at 69.07%, 61.97%, and 64.87% respectively[21] - China's "new three" (EVs, lithium batteries, and PV products) exports reached 1.06 trillion yuan in 2023, up 29.9% year-on-year, marking a significant shift towards high-value manufacturing[54] Policy and Structural Adjustments - China's industrial policy focuses on optimizing capacity, merging, upgrading, and directing investments to emerging industries to enhance economic growth and structural upgrades[7] - The government emphasizes the importance of developing new productive forces while maintaining traditional industries, avoiding overcapacity and market bubbles[9] - Historical overcapacity adjustments in 1995-2001 and post-2008 financial crisis involved measures like eliminating outdated capacity, tightening credit, and promoting market reforms[16] Market and Competitive Dynamics - China's domestic brands now dominate 74.4% of the market share in key industries, reducing the competitive edge of foreign enterprises[43] - Foreign enterprises face challenges due to high R&D costs and lack of localization, leading to declining profit margins since 2017[44] - The rise of trade protectionism and tariffs may further complicate foreign enterprises' entry into the Chinese market, impacting their profitability[13] Technological and Innovation Impact - Technological advancements in China's manufacturing sector have offset rising costs, maintaining the competitive pricing of Chinese goods globally[9] - The development of new productive forces is expected to further elevate China's position in the global value chain, addressing "bottleneck" technologies and enhancing high-end manufacturing[13]