2026年有色金属趋势展望 价值攀升 ——资源博弈与科技革命加速格局重塑，战略资源 有色金属行业 投资评级 看好 五矿证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：王小芃 登记编码：S0950523050002 联系方式： 021-61102510 邮箱：wangxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告|行业策略 2026/02/09 2025年有色金属走势 与预期差 1. 2025年有色金属——关税影响、降息预期与战略金属价值重估 1.1 2025年主要有色金属价格，宏观与地缘政治扰动成为主因 图表1：2025年有色金属价格涨跌幅与预期差异 | | 贵金属 | 130%/159% | | 工业金属 | 31%/27% | | | 战略金属 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 黄金 | 白银 | 铜 | 铝 | 铅 | 锌 | 锡 | 钨 | 锑 | 钼 | 稀土 | | 2025涨跌幅 | 81%/76% | 178%/242% | 51%/42% | 23%/21% | ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] 钨价中枢抬高存在强支撑，聚焦终端需 求反馈 事件描述 根据中钨在线，截至 2026 年 2 月 3 日，65%黑钨精矿价格 63.2 万元/标吨， 较年初涨 37.4%，钨粉价格 1550 元/公斤，较年初涨 43.5%，相关钨制品再 创新高。 事件点评 中国供给及出口均收缩，海外增量有限。供给方面，2025 年中国钨精矿开采 总量控制第一批指标 5.8 万吨，同比-6.5%，同时环保及安全督查严格限制表 外钨矿山产出。出口方面，根据安泰科统计，2025 年累计出口钨品 13149 吨 ， 同比-27.5%，进而 2026 年初中国对日本出口两用物项管制加强，预计对日 本市场下降幅度将加大。钨价高涨刺激哈萨克斯坦、加拿大、韩国及澳大利亚 钨矿项目推进，但产能释放节奏缓慢。我们预计，2026 年海外钨矿（非中资 控制）新增产能或不足 5000 吨（WO₃ 65%）。因此我们认为，在中国总量 控制及出口管制政策压制供应情况下，海外采购依赖度难减。在大国博弈背 景下管制战略性物资出口具有保障资源安全、产业安全与国防安全的作用， 将成为一项长期战略手段，进而海外有 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Main] 公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准 指引与操作细则解读 日期： 2026.02.02 [Table_Author] 分析师 徐林 登记编码：S0950525110001 [相关研究 Table_DocReport] 事件描述 2026 年 1 月 23 日，中国证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准 指引》（证监会公告〔2026〕3 号，以下简称《指引》）。同日，配合《指引》 的发布，中国证券投资基金业协会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准 操作细则》（以下简称《细则》）。本次《指引》和《细则》是，继 2025 年 12 月 31 日中国证监会修订发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》， 第二部根据《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》（以下简称行动方案）安排 制定发布的法规。 事件点评 《指引》共六章二十一条，主要内容包括：一是突出业绩比较基准的表征作用， 强调业绩比较基准运用的严肃性和稳定性。二是强化基金管理人的内部控制和 管理。明确基金管理人应当建立健全内控机制和管理体系，加强对基金经理、 基金产品投资风格稳定性的持续管理。三是加强对业绩比 ...

Global Macro - Global manufacturing shows moderate expansion with a PMI of 50.4% in November, while the US manufacturing PMI is at 51.8% and the Eurozone at 48.8%[7] - The US manufacturing sector is benefiting from geopolitical tensions, while the Eurozone, particularly Germany, faces significant challenges with a PMI of 47%[7] Domestic Macro - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is set at 5%, with nominal GDP growth at 4%[11] - Consumption contributes 2.6% to GDP growth, investment contributes 0.77%, and net exports contribute 1.64%[11] - December data shows a 0.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales, with significant declines in sectors like construction materials (-11.8%) and home appliances (-18.7%)[17] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in December fell by 16%, with manufacturing investment down 10.5% and real estate investment down 36.3%[19] - The stock market is expected to perform well due to the rapid economic transition and high demand for technology sectors[33] Policy Environment - The policy focus remains on stability, with no significant new stimulus measures announced in December[30] - The government aims to support domestic demand through fiscal and monetary policies, including increased consumer loan subsidies[28] Inflation and Financial Cycle - December CPI rose by 0.8%, while PPI decreased by 1.9%, indicating a mixed inflation outlook[24] - The financial cycle is in a downward trend, with social financing growth slowing to 8.3% year-on-year[24]

政策：外部环境表面趋稳、地缘风险抬头，国内延续稳节奏为明年蓄力。12 月 以来，全球宏观环境呈现出"经济与政策层面平稳、地缘政治风险持续上升" 的特征。外部环境已从年中的"高频政策冲击"，转向"低频但具有更高冲击 力"，对全球风险偏好的影响方式正在发生变化。国内经济与货币政策层面保 持稳定，地缘政治风险边际上升但尚未对我国经济带来明显冲击。我们认为 12 月政策的关键词不是"加码"，而是"稳住"，为下一阶段增长与应对潜 在外 部冲击预留空间，特别是 26 年贸易顺差、地缘政治可能带来的新扰动。 大类资产：人民币升值，贵金属大涨，股市上涨。近一个月影响全球市场的交 易主线有两条：一是地缘政治层面，美国抓捕委内瑞拉总统，并宣称要占领格 陵兰及对伊朗威胁动武。二是美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室对美联储主 席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，意在影响美联储独立性，也引起了市场对美元信用的 担忧。我们继续看好中国股市的表现。年初股市快速上涨之后出现一定调整， 我们认为长期趋势依然向好。一是中国经济转型较快，以科技产业为代表的新 经济具有较高的景气度；二是居民存款和社保、保险资金仍然大量欠配，有流 入股市的动力，在股市趋势向好的背景 ...

电气设备行业 混沌中寻找确定性 投资评级 看好 ——2026年全球储能发展趋势 五矿证券研究所 新能源行业 分析师：钟林志 登记编码：S0950525050001 电话：17378362019 邮箱： zhonglinzhi@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2026/01/23 Contents目录 全球储能发展回顾 01 02 未来有哪些短期变量 碳酸锂价格、现货峰谷价差、容量补 偿、关税、出口退税、欧洲创新机制 、电网接入能力、应用拓展等 抓住长期趋势 能源转型 03 人工智能 01 全球储能发展回顾 珍惜有限 创造无限 巴黎协定以来，中美欧风光渗透率快速增长 中美欧作为全球GDP最高的三大经济体，发电量也位居全球前三，2024年中美欧发电量分别达到10.0/4.4/2.7万亿kwh，分别占全球总发 电量33%/14%/9%，合计占全球总发电量的56%。随着能源转型推进，中美欧各自的发电结构发生了显著变化，煤电、 天然气等化石能 源占比不断下降，风电、光伏等可再生能源占比快速增长。 图表1：中美欧风光渗透率快速增长 2024 装机量 结构变化 中国 发电量 结构变化 0% 20% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the uranium industry is "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish trend for uranium, driven by geopolitical factors and the global push for clean energy solutions, particularly nuclear power [28] - Uranium is recognized as a strategic mineral, with its importance highlighted in various national critical mineral lists, including those of the US, China, and Canada [28] - The report outlines the nuclear fuel cycle, indicating that uranium constitutes 51% of nuclear fuel costs, which translates to approximately 9% of the overall cost of nuclear power generation [29] Summary by Sections 1. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Overview - The nuclear fuel cycle includes the preparation of nuclear fuel before it enters the reactor, its combustion within the reactor, and the subsequent processing of spent fuel [34] - The cycle can be categorized into front-end and back-end processes, with the front-end involving uranium mining, conversion, and enrichment, while the back-end includes spent fuel management and waste disposal [34] 2. Natural Uranium Price Review and Forecast - The report does not provide specific details in this section, indicating a focus on supply-demand dynamics instead [7] 3. Natural Uranium Supply and Demand Patterns - Natural uranium is widely distributed in the Earth's crust, with an average abundance of approximately 2.5 parts per million (ppm) [37] - The report identifies that the highest economic value uranium deposits are sandstone/sedimentary types, which account for about 18% of global resources [37] - Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia together account for over 50% of the world's uranium resources, with Kazakhstan being the largest producer [44][49] 4. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Technology Chain Overview - The report details the entire nuclear fuel cycle, emphasizing the importance of uranium as a critical resource for nuclear energy [28] - It highlights that uranium's cost constitutes a significant portion of nuclear fuel expenses, with the front-end costs being crucial for the overall economics of nuclear power [29] 5. Upstream - Uranium Resource Distribution - The report notes that the global uranium resource distribution is concentrated, with Australia, Kazakhstan, and Canada holding the majority of the resources [44] - It mentions that the global uranium production is expected to meet 90% of the demand, with Kazakhstan, Canada, and Namibia being the top producers [49] 6. Midstream - Conversion and Enrichment - The report states that only a few countries, including Russia, the US, France, and China, possess large-scale uranium conversion and enrichment capabilities [59][65] - It highlights the strategic sensitivity of the enrichment process, which is tightly regulated and dominated by a few key players [65] 7. Downstream - Nuclear Fuel Component Manufacturing - The manufacturing of nuclear fuel components is the final step in the nuclear fuel cycle, primarily involving the production of uranium oxide ceramic fuel pellets [74] - The report indicates that the global capacity for fuel component manufacturing is currently in surplus, with countries like China, India, and South Korea striving for self-sufficiency [74]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of the development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) on the demand for cutting tools, particularly in the automotive sector, which has traditionally been the largest consumer of tungsten and hard alloy materials [18][19] - MAPAL, a leading manufacturer of non-standard cutting tools, has successfully navigated its growth through a focus on innovation and specialization, particularly in the automotive industry [14][15] - The shift towards NEVs has led to a decline in the consumption of tungsten per vehicle, with a reported decrease of 23% for plug-in hybrid vehicles and 65% for pure electric vehicles compared to traditional fuel vehicles [49] Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus and Innovation - MAPAL has achieved significant growth in non-standard cutting tools through a four-phase development strategy, emphasizing innovation and specialization in precision tools for the automotive industry [14][15] Section 2: Impact of NEVs on Tool Demand - The automotive industry is experiencing a notable decline in tungsten consumption, dropping from 25.84% in 2017 to 18.44% in 2024 due to the rise of NEVs [23][24] - NEVs have simpler structures compared to traditional vehicles, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of cutting parts and overall machining workload, with machining time for pure electric vehicles reduced by 74% [31][30] - The increasing use of lightweight materials such as aluminum and magnesium alloys in NEVs is further impacting the demand for traditional hard alloy tools [47][40] Section 3: MAPAL's Solutions for NEVs - MAPAL has developed comprehensive machining solutions tailored for NEVs, including specialized non-standard tools that enable continuous processing without tool changes [50][52] - The company offers a range of solutions based on the complexity and volume of parts, ensuring high efficiency and quality in the machining process [55][56] Section 4: Opportunities in Non-Standard PCD Tools - The report emphasizes the growing market for non-standard polycrystalline diamond (PCD) tools in the NEV sector, projecting a potential growth of 1.9 to 2.7 times in the next five years [35][36] - PCD tools are particularly suited for the lightweight materials used in NEVs, providing superior machining performance and material compatibility [34][33]

Group 1: U.S. National Security Strategy Changes - The U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) 2025 marks a significant shift from promoting ideology to defending "Western civilization" and its core territories, emphasizing the importance of mineral resources[1] - The strategy identifies North America as an inviolable core area, while Latin America is viewed as a strategic depth that needs "purification" from external competitors, particularly China[12] - In the Indo-Pacific region, the U.S. aims to curb China through military deterrence and supply chain cooperation with allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India, focusing on economic competition as the decisive factor[15] Group 2: Methods to Contain Chinese Mining - Legal barriers will be implemented through the expansion of "Foreign Entities of Concern" rules, forcing a restructuring of global mining equity and restricting Chinese companies' overseas paths[2] - Financial sanctions will be utilized to cut off financing channels for Chinese companies, block IPOs, and freeze settlement channels, potentially affecting third parties that assist[2] - The U.S. will construct exclusive logistics networks to physically isolate Chinese mining operations and promote standards that exclude Chinese supply chains from high-end markets[2] Group 3: Risk Assessment of Mining Regions - North America is classified as a high-risk area for Chinese mining enterprises, with potential asset confiscation and administrative intervention due to national security concerns[36] - South America is deemed a dangerous zone, where U.S. strategies aim to create operational difficulties for Chinese companies through high tariffs and responsible mining certifications[39] - Africa is identified as a competitive zone, where the U.S. engages in resource competition without seeking to monopolize, allowing for some operational flexibility for Chinese firms[42]

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to remain stable in 2026, with a projected interest rate cut of 50-75 basis points (bp) by the Federal Reserve due to weakening economic conditions and increased pressure on the Fed's independence from the Trump administration[1] - Major economies are entering a "big fiscal era," with significant fiscal expansions breaking previous fiscal discipline to address geopolitical conflicts and supply chain security, leading to increased demand for physical assets[1] China Economic Insights - China's GDP growth is projected to be around 5% in 2026, supported by moderately loose monetary policy and more proactive fiscal policy, with a fiscal deficit rate maintained at approximately 4%[2] - The consumer growth momentum remains weak, with nominal GDP growth dropping to 3.7% in Q3 2025, leading to a disparity between macroeconomic data and microeconomic sentiment[2] - The PPI is expected to face challenges in turning positive in 2026, with inflation anticipated to recover slowly due to structural factors and weak financial cycles[2] Currency and Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar is expected to enter a long-term downtrend, influenced by its overvaluation relative to purchasing power parity and the US government's intention to promote a weaker dollar to reduce trade deficits[3] - The Chinese yuan is projected to appreciate gradually, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US, as well as China's significant trade surplus with regions like the EU and ASEAN[3] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The stock market is favored over bonds, with a slow bull market anticipated in China driven by factors such as improved global liquidity from a weak dollar and strategic government support for capital markets[4] - Commodity prices are expected to enter a long-term upward cycle, driven by the weak dollar, supply chain restructuring, and increased demand for physical assets due to expansive fiscal policies[4]