| | | | 电气设备行业 | | --- | | 投资评级 看好 | 全球储能市场盘点及中长期展望 五矿证券研究所 新能源行业 分析师：钟林志 登记编码：S0950525050001 电话：17378362019 邮箱： zhonglinzhi@wkzq.com.cn Contents目录 全球能源转型进展 01 02 全球储能市场盘点 中长期储能需求展望 03 01 全球能源转型进展 珍惜有限 创造无限 我们正处在新一轮能源革命的开端 第一次能源革命——农业文明时代 图表1：人类目标通过第四次能源革命进入低碳时代 人类学会人工取火（4万年前） 第二次能源革命——化石能源时代 蒸汽机发明、内燃机发明 能源结构转向煤炭、石油、天然气 第三次能源革命——电气化时代 电磁感应现象、电力普及 社会生产力和人类文明到达前所未有的 高度 第四次能源革命——碳中和时代 能源可持续供应、气候变化 光伏风电等可再生能源将成为主体 珍惜有限 创造无限 2015年巴黎协定以来，中美欧风光渗透率快速增长 中美欧作为全球GDP最高的三大经济体，发电量也位居全球前三，2024年中美欧发电量分别达到10.1/4.4/2.7万亿kwh， ...

证券研究报告 [Table_ | 行业深度First] [Table_Main] 汽车轻量化进入"镁"时代，车企竞逐百亿 镁合金蓝海——新能源汽车新材料研究之 八 报告要点 镁合金市场空间凸显,潜在市场规模达 397.58 亿元。目前国内汽车上已经批 量使用加上正在换用以及试用中的镁合金零部件的总重量可达 106.47kg/车， 按照 2024 年国内汽车产量计算，镁合金 137 万吨/年的市场空间正在打开， 是 2023 年国内镁合金压铸件产量的 7 倍。 自 2024 年镁价低于铝价后，镁合金相比于铝合金价格更低，车用镁合金零部 件的成本优势更加明显。 耐蚀性镁合金突破带来的新机遇。传统镁合金的耐蚀性低于铝合金，所以目 前在汽车的应用主要是仪表盘支架、方向盘骨架等密闭区域零部件。随着行 业内对镁合金耐蚀性的研究和突破，电驱壳体等位于简单开放区域的零件已 经开始逐步被替换成镁合金零部件。目前，车厂已经开始在一体化压铸后车 体等大型位于开放区域的零部件上试用镁合金。 [Table_Invest] 汽车 评级： 看好 日期： 2025.09.04 [Table_Author] 分析师 孙亮 登记编码：S0950 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.726 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.7% to 126 million yuan [1][2] - The decline in net profit is attributed to several factors, including low overall industry gross margins for AHF products, reduced profits from a subsidiary due to technical upgrades, foreign exchange losses from a project in Mongolia, and losses from lithium-related businesses [2] - The company is advancing key projects as planned, which supports future growth, including the processing of raw ore in Mongolia and improvements in production efficiency at its fluorite operations [3] Financial Summary - The company expects continued high revenue growth in 2025, driven by the scale effects of its projects, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 305 million yuan, 470 million yuan, and 510 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][9] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 47, 30, and 28 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the cost reduction measures in the Australian lithium mining sector have reached a bottleneck, with companies now focusing on more nuanced strategies to manage costs rather than broad cuts [2][22] - Australian lithium production in Q2 2025 increased by 12% to 940,000 tons (equivalent to SC6), with expectations for FY26 production to rise by 6.4% year-on-year to 3.888 million tons [1][13] - The report highlights a significant drop in lithium prices, which has pressured profit margins, yet companies maintain a certain level of cash flow resilience [3][41] Summary by Sections Production - In Q2 2025, Australian lithium production was boosted by the successful ramp-up of the Pilbara P1000 project and increased output from Wodgina, leading to a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase [1][11] - The total sales volume of Australian lithium concentrate in Q2 2025 was 989,000 tons, reflecting a 16% increase from the previous quarter, despite a 10% year-on-year decline [11] Cost Analysis - Cost reduction strategies have become more selective, with companies weighing the relationship between stripping ratios, recovery rates, and costs [2][22] - The report notes that the average cash costs for Kathleen Valley have approached critical levels, while Pilbara and Wodgina have managed to lower costs through efficiency improvements [19][20] Financial Performance - The gross profit margins for major Australian lithium mines have significantly decreased, with Greenbushes maintaining a margin of 62%, while others like Pilbara and Marion saw margins drop to between 15% and 22% [43] - Operating cash flows for companies like Pilbara improved due to increased sales volumes and cost reductions, while others like IGO faced cash flow pressures [46][47] Strategic Decisions - Most Australian mining companies are currently unable to provide price guidance, reflecting a shift from broad cost-cutting measures to more refined operational strategies [54][55] - Companies are focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and management capabilities rather than aggressive workforce reductions [2][54]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [6] Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in H1 2025, with revenue of 7.713 billion and a year-on-year increase of 13.99%, while net profit attributable to the parent company reached 1.691 billion, up 16.78% [1] - The trade service segment has become a core driver of profit growth, with revenue of 531 million, a 43.2% increase, and a profit total of 302 million, surging 127% year-on-year [2] - The global digital trade center's successful招商 (招商 refers to the process of attracting businesses) indicates a new growth cycle, with high demand for commercial spaces and significant bidding prices [3] - The company's digital transformation strategy, empowered by AI, has created a closed-loop ecosystem that enhances user engagement and operational efficiency [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.713 billion, a 13.99% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.691 billion, reflecting a 16.78% growth [1] - Q2 2025 saw a revenue of 4.552 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.41%, and a net profit of 888 million, up 20.77% [1] Business Segments - The trade service segment's revenue reached 531 million, marking a 43.2% increase, and its profit total surged 127% to 302 million [2] - The Chinagoods platform achieved a net profit of 155 million, a 109.69% increase, while Yiwu Pay's profit exceeded 40 million, growing over 50% [2] Market Outlook - The招商 for the global digital trade center has attracted over 47,000 entities for the first batch and over 24,000 for the second batch, indicating strong market demand [3] - The bidding prices for commercial spaces reached 11-12.4 million per square meter for the first batch and up to 13.8 million for the second batch, highlighting the high value of the Yiwu market [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company has successfully implemented a digital and intelligent transformation strategy, creating a closed-loop ecosystem that integrates information flow, business flow, and capital flow [3] - The Chinagoods platform has registered over 5.1 million buyers, and the "Small Business AI" applications have surpassed 1 billion uses, significantly enhancing user retention [3] Investment Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.1 billion, 5.5 billion, and 6.3 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 27x, 20x, and 18x [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance amid the "anti-involution" trend, with a notable increase of 5.7% in the sector index in July 2025, ranking 8th among all industries [17][18] - The report highlights the ongoing supply-side reforms and the government's focus on promoting high-quality development, which is expected to lead to further consolidation and collaboration within the industry [4][38] - The analysis draws parallels between the current "anti-involution" movement and past supply-side reforms, suggesting that the current policies may have a more prolonged impact on the industry [4][38] Summary by Sections Section 1: Anti-Involution and Market Performance - The market in July 2025 was influenced by the "anti-involution" theme, with the non-ferrous metals sector experiencing significant gains [17] - The government has initiated measures to enhance product quality and phase out outdated production capacity [17] Section 2: Historical Comparison - The report compares the current "anti-involution" policies with the supply-side structural reforms initiated in 2015, noting the different macroeconomic contexts and targets of these policies [20][26] - The non-ferrous metals index ranked first in performance during key policy announcements in 2016, indicating a strong correlation between policy actions and market performance [22] Section 3: Japanese Experience - The report examines Japan's historical approach to anti-involution in the cement industry, highlighting the importance of government intervention and industry consolidation [4][35] - Japan's experience suggests that effective policy measures can lead to improved industry concentration and higher operational efficiency [4][37] Section 4: Market Trends - The report discusses the current market dynamics for key metals such as copper and aluminum, indicating a tight supply-demand balance that supports price stability [41][42] - The analysis also notes the performance of strategic minor metals, which are experiencing a reassessment of their value in the market [41] Section 5: Policy Changes - Recent government initiatives aim to deepen the construction of a unified national market and eliminate "involution-style" competition, which is expected to benefit the non-ferrous metals sector [17][38] - The report emphasizes the importance of aligning supply-side reforms with demand-side policies to sustain industry growth [32][38]

Investment Rating - The report rates the bismuth industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - Short-term bismuth supply and demand are in a weak balance, with tight raw material supply supporting high prices, but weak exports and high inventory levels limit recovery space, leading to a potential price fluctuation in the short term. In the medium to long term, domestic environmental regulations will tighten, maintaining a tight supply of smelting raw materials, with supply growth expected to be only 2-4%. Meanwhile, demand from electronics, photovoltaic solder, and semiconductor thermoelectric materials is expected to grow at 8-10%, leading to a gradual convergence of supply surplus and a balanced state in the next 2-3 years [1][2][3]. Supply Side - China dominates global bismuth supply, accounting for 75% of the 23,940 tons produced in 2023. The expansion of production capacity is constrained by raw material shortages, with supply growth expected to be around 2-4% [2][25][26]. - The supply of refined bismuth is limited due to a continuous shortage of raw materials, particularly bismuth ore and recycling materials from lead and copper production. Current visible inventory levels are decreasing, indicating reduced inventory pressure [26][28]. Demand Side - Domestic bismuth consumption remains focused on traditional sectors, but high-tech demand from semiconductors and renewable energy is creating a second growth curve for bismuth. Overall consumption has been stable, with significant growth expected in electronics and semiconductors [2][31][34]. - China is the largest exporter of bismuth, with over 60% of bismuth metal used for export. Long-term export volumes are expected to return to normal levels, with a shift from metal bismuth to bismuth oxide exports [34]. Industry Development Trends - The bismuth industry is transitioning towards high-value-added products, with a focus on high-purity bismuth and advanced bismuth-based materials. There is a notable technological gap compared to Europe, the US, and Japan in high-end bismuth products [3][19]. - The report highlights the potential applications of bismuth in superconductors, nuclear reactor coolants, and electronic devices, indicating a strong future demand in high-tech fields [36][41][42].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is showing signs of pressure, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, significantly below expectations, and previous months' data revised downwards[6] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, indicating a cooling labor market[6] - In contrast, the Eurozone continues its recovery, with the manufacturing PMI index at 49.8 in July, showing a seven-month upward trend despite being below the growth threshold[13] Domestic Economic Conditions - In July, China's retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from June, reflecting weak consumer demand[15] - Fixed asset investment in China fell by 5.2% year-on-year in July, marking the largest monthly decline since March 2020[19] - China's exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year in July, with a notable decline of 21.67% in exports to the U.S., while exports to ASEAN and the EU increased by 16.59% and 9.24%, respectively[21] Inflation and Policy Outlook - China's CPI remained flat year-on-year in July, while PPI decreased by 3.6%, indicating significant deflationary pressure[25] - The necessity for a new round of large-scale stimulus policies in the second half of the year is emphasized due to ongoing economic pressures[27] - The Chinese government is expected to maintain a focus on "stabilizing growth and adjusting structure" in its policy approach for the latter half of the year[30] Market Trends - The stock market has seen a broad rally, particularly in China, driven by improved liquidity and risk appetite, while long-term government bonds have significantly declined[32] - The technology sector is anticipated to remain a key focus for market investment in the near term, with potential policy announcements in September or October likely to boost market sentiment[34] Risks - Key risks include potential reversals in U.S.-China trade negotiations and rapid declines in consumer spending and exports[35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is optimistic [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of tariffs on the copper and aluminum markets, indicating that the copper market is experiencing a "split" due to tariff policies, which could lead to a potential return of copper processing to the U.S. [18][31] - The aluminum market is facing tight supply conditions, with fluctuations in alumina prices significantly affecting profitability [49][50] - The report anticipates that the copper supply-demand gap will support long-term price stability, with projected deficits in the coming years [44][46] Summary by Sections Copper and Aluminum Price Trends - The report reviews the price trends of copper and aluminum, noting significant fluctuations influenced by tariff expectations and supply chain disruptions [12][15] - Copper prices have been affected by U.S. tariff announcements, leading to a drop in both LME and domestic copper prices [19][31] Tariff Impacts on Copper Market - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper products, which is expected to impact the domestic copper processing industry significantly [19][31] - The report suggests that the tariff policy may lead to a return of copper processing to the U.S., with potential increases in domestic processing costs [31] Supply Constraints in the Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is experiencing supply constraints, with alumina prices being a core factor affecting profitability [50][54] - The report notes that while there are disruptions in alumina supply from Guinea, overall imports have increased, indicating a gradual recovery [50][51] Long-term Supply-Demand Outlook for Copper - The report projects a supply-demand gap for copper, with deficits expected in 2025 and 2026, which could support higher price levels in the long term [44][46] - The global refined copper production is expected to increase, but the growth rate may be limited due to declining ore grades and production challenges [44][46]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment industry is optimistic [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the transition from silver paste to copper paste in photovoltaic cells as a significant trend for cost reduction in the industry. The rising silver prices and the competitive landscape in the photovoltaic sector are driving this shift towards cheaper metal alternatives [55][56]. - The report anticipates that the introduction of copper paste will occur between 2025 and 2026, with rapid penetration expected from 2027 to 2028. By 2030, the demand for copper paste is projected to reach approximately 6,000 tons, while the demand for silver paste is expected to decrease to around 3,000 tons [42][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Role and Principle of Copper Paste - Metalization is a crucial process in photovoltaic cell production, impacting efficiency, cost, and reliability. The main goal is to reduce costs and improve efficiency through various metalization techniques [14][15]. - The transition from silver to copper is driven by the need to lower costs, as copper has a similar conductivity to silver but is significantly cheaper [22]. 2. Impact of Copper Paste on Cost Reduction - The report indicates that metalization costs are becoming a larger portion of the total battery cost, reaching approximately 30%. This makes it a primary target for cost reduction efforts [31]. - The copper alternative can significantly lower metalization costs compared to silver paste, with projections showing substantial savings in both TOPCON and BC cell applications [35][40]. 3. Industrialization Challenges and Solutions for Copper Paste - The report discusses the challenges of copper oxidation and migration during the manufacturing process, which can affect the performance of photovoltaic cells. Solutions include protective coatings and the use of seed layers to prevent copper diffusion into silicon [23][27]. - The anticipated industrialization of copper paste is expected to enhance profitability for paste manufacturers, as the shift to copper will likely increase processing fees compared to traditional silver paste [45]. 4. Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The transition to copper paste is expected to alter the competitive landscape among paste manufacturers, with companies needing to invest in new technologies and processes to maintain their market positions [49]. - The report notes that companies are already beginning to develop copper powder capabilities to enhance their competitiveness in the copper paste market [51].