Global Macro - Global manufacturing shows moderate expansion with a PMI of 50.4% in November, while the US manufacturing PMI is at 51.8% and the Eurozone at 48.8%[7] - The US manufacturing sector is benefiting from geopolitical tensions, while the Eurozone, particularly Germany, faces significant challenges with a PMI of 47%[7] Domestic Macro - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is set at 5%, with nominal GDP growth at 4%[11] - Consumption contributes 2.6% to GDP growth, investment contributes 0.77%, and net exports contribute 1.64%[11] - December data shows a 0.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales, with significant declines in sectors like construction materials (-11.8%) and home appliances (-18.7%)[17] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in December fell by 16%, with manufacturing investment down 10.5% and real estate investment down 36.3%[19] - The stock market is expected to perform well due to the rapid economic transition and high demand for technology sectors[33] Policy Environment - The policy focus remains on stability, with no significant new stimulus measures announced in December[30] - The government aims to support domestic demand through fiscal and monetary policies, including increased consumer loan subsidies[28] Inflation and Financial Cycle - December CPI rose by 0.8%, while PPI decreased by 1.9%, indicating a mixed inflation outlook[24] - The financial cycle is in a downward trend, with social financing growth slowing to 8.3% year-on-year[24]

政策：外部环境表面趋稳、地缘风险抬头，国内延续稳节奏为明年蓄力。12 月 以来，全球宏观环境呈现出"经济与政策层面平稳、地缘政治风险持续上升" 的特征。外部环境已从年中的"高频政策冲击"，转向"低频但具有更高冲击 力"，对全球风险偏好的影响方式正在发生变化。国内经济与货币政策层面保 持稳定，地缘政治风险边际上升但尚未对我国经济带来明显冲击。我们认为 12 月政策的关键词不是"加码"，而是"稳住"，为下一阶段增长与应对潜 在外 部冲击预留空间，特别是 26 年贸易顺差、地缘政治可能带来的新扰动。 大类资产：人民币升值，贵金属大涨，股市上涨。近一个月影响全球市场的交 易主线有两条：一是地缘政治层面，美国抓捕委内瑞拉总统，并宣称要占领格 陵兰及对伊朗威胁动武。二是美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室对美联储主 席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，意在影响美联储独立性，也引起了市场对美元信用的 担忧。我们继续看好中国股市的表现。年初股市快速上涨之后出现一定调整， 我们认为长期趋势依然向好。一是中国经济转型较快，以科技产业为代表的新 经济具有较高的景气度；二是居民存款和社保、保险资金仍然大量欠配，有流 入股市的动力，在股市趋势向好的背景 ...

电气设备行业 混沌中寻找确定性 投资评级 看好 ——2026年全球储能发展趋势 五矿证券研究所 新能源行业 分析师：钟林志 登记编码：S0950525050001 电话：17378362019 邮箱： zhonglinzhi@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2026/01/23 Contents目录 全球储能发展回顾 01 02 未来有哪些短期变量 碳酸锂价格、现货峰谷价差、容量补 偿、关税、出口退税、欧洲创新机制 、电网接入能力、应用拓展等 抓住长期趋势 能源转型 03 人工智能 01 全球储能发展回顾 珍惜有限 创造无限 巴黎协定以来，中美欧风光渗透率快速增长 中美欧作为全球GDP最高的三大经济体，发电量也位居全球前三，2024年中美欧发电量分别达到10.0/4.4/2.7万亿kwh，分别占全球总发 电量33%/14%/9%，合计占全球总发电量的56%。随着能源转型推进，中美欧各自的发电结构发生了显著变化，煤电、 天然气等化石能 源占比不断下降，风电、光伏等可再生能源占比快速增长。 图表1：中美欧风光渗透率快速增长 2024 装机量 结构变化 中国 发电量 结构变化 0% 20% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the uranium industry is "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish trend for uranium, driven by geopolitical factors and the global push for clean energy solutions, particularly nuclear power [28] - Uranium is recognized as a strategic mineral, with its importance highlighted in various national critical mineral lists, including those of the US, China, and Canada [28] - The report outlines the nuclear fuel cycle, indicating that uranium constitutes 51% of nuclear fuel costs, which translates to approximately 9% of the overall cost of nuclear power generation [29] Summary by Sections 1. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Overview - The nuclear fuel cycle includes the preparation of nuclear fuel before it enters the reactor, its combustion within the reactor, and the subsequent processing of spent fuel [34] - The cycle can be categorized into front-end and back-end processes, with the front-end involving uranium mining, conversion, and enrichment, while the back-end includes spent fuel management and waste disposal [34] 2. Natural Uranium Price Review and Forecast - The report does not provide specific details in this section, indicating a focus on supply-demand dynamics instead [7] 3. Natural Uranium Supply and Demand Patterns - Natural uranium is widely distributed in the Earth's crust, with an average abundance of approximately 2.5 parts per million (ppm) [37] - The report identifies that the highest economic value uranium deposits are sandstone/sedimentary types, which account for about 18% of global resources [37] - Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia together account for over 50% of the world's uranium resources, with Kazakhstan being the largest producer [44][49] 4. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Technology Chain Overview - The report details the entire nuclear fuel cycle, emphasizing the importance of uranium as a critical resource for nuclear energy [28] - It highlights that uranium's cost constitutes a significant portion of nuclear fuel expenses, with the front-end costs being crucial for the overall economics of nuclear power [29] 5. Upstream - Uranium Resource Distribution - The report notes that the global uranium resource distribution is concentrated, with Australia, Kazakhstan, and Canada holding the majority of the resources [44] - It mentions that the global uranium production is expected to meet 90% of the demand, with Kazakhstan, Canada, and Namibia being the top producers [49] 6. Midstream - Conversion and Enrichment - The report states that only a few countries, including Russia, the US, France, and China, possess large-scale uranium conversion and enrichment capabilities [59][65] - It highlights the strategic sensitivity of the enrichment process, which is tightly regulated and dominated by a few key players [65] 7. Downstream - Nuclear Fuel Component Manufacturing - The manufacturing of nuclear fuel components is the final step in the nuclear fuel cycle, primarily involving the production of uranium oxide ceramic fuel pellets [74] - The report indicates that the global capacity for fuel component manufacturing is currently in surplus, with countries like China, India, and South Korea striving for self-sufficiency [74]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of the development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) on the demand for cutting tools, particularly in the automotive sector, which has traditionally been the largest consumer of tungsten and hard alloy materials [18][19] - MAPAL, a leading manufacturer of non-standard cutting tools, has successfully navigated its growth through a focus on innovation and specialization, particularly in the automotive industry [14][15] - The shift towards NEVs has led to a decline in the consumption of tungsten per vehicle, with a reported decrease of 23% for plug-in hybrid vehicles and 65% for pure electric vehicles compared to traditional fuel vehicles [49] Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus and Innovation - MAPAL has achieved significant growth in non-standard cutting tools through a four-phase development strategy, emphasizing innovation and specialization in precision tools for the automotive industry [14][15] Section 2: Impact of NEVs on Tool Demand - The automotive industry is experiencing a notable decline in tungsten consumption, dropping from 25.84% in 2017 to 18.44% in 2024 due to the rise of NEVs [23][24] - NEVs have simpler structures compared to traditional vehicles, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of cutting parts and overall machining workload, with machining time for pure electric vehicles reduced by 74% [31][30] - The increasing use of lightweight materials such as aluminum and magnesium alloys in NEVs is further impacting the demand for traditional hard alloy tools [47][40] Section 3: MAPAL's Solutions for NEVs - MAPAL has developed comprehensive machining solutions tailored for NEVs, including specialized non-standard tools that enable continuous processing without tool changes [50][52] - The company offers a range of solutions based on the complexity and volume of parts, ensuring high efficiency and quality in the machining process [55][56] Section 4: Opportunities in Non-Standard PCD Tools - The report emphasizes the growing market for non-standard polycrystalline diamond (PCD) tools in the NEV sector, projecting a potential growth of 1.9 to 2.7 times in the next five years [35][36] - PCD tools are particularly suited for the lightweight materials used in NEVs, providing superior machining performance and material compatibility [34][33]

Group 1: U.S. National Security Strategy Changes - The U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) 2025 marks a significant shift from promoting ideology to defending "Western civilization" and its core territories, emphasizing the importance of mineral resources[1] - The strategy identifies North America as an inviolable core area, while Latin America is viewed as a strategic depth that needs "purification" from external competitors, particularly China[12] - In the Indo-Pacific region, the U.S. aims to curb China through military deterrence and supply chain cooperation with allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India, focusing on economic competition as the decisive factor[15] Group 2: Methods to Contain Chinese Mining - Legal barriers will be implemented through the expansion of "Foreign Entities of Concern" rules, forcing a restructuring of global mining equity and restricting Chinese companies' overseas paths[2] - Financial sanctions will be utilized to cut off financing channels for Chinese companies, block IPOs, and freeze settlement channels, potentially affecting third parties that assist[2] - The U.S. will construct exclusive logistics networks to physically isolate Chinese mining operations and promote standards that exclude Chinese supply chains from high-end markets[2] Group 3: Risk Assessment of Mining Regions - North America is classified as a high-risk area for Chinese mining enterprises, with potential asset confiscation and administrative intervention due to national security concerns[36] - South America is deemed a dangerous zone, where U.S. strategies aim to create operational difficulties for Chinese companies through high tariffs and responsible mining certifications[39] - Africa is identified as a competitive zone, where the U.S. engages in resource competition without seeking to monopolize, allowing for some operational flexibility for Chinese firms[42]

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to remain stable in 2026, with a projected interest rate cut of 50-75 basis points (bp) by the Federal Reserve due to weakening economic conditions and increased pressure on the Fed's independence from the Trump administration[1] - Major economies are entering a "big fiscal era," with significant fiscal expansions breaking previous fiscal discipline to address geopolitical conflicts and supply chain security, leading to increased demand for physical assets[1] China Economic Insights - China's GDP growth is projected to be around 5% in 2026, supported by moderately loose monetary policy and more proactive fiscal policy, with a fiscal deficit rate maintained at approximately 4%[2] - The consumer growth momentum remains weak, with nominal GDP growth dropping to 3.7% in Q3 2025, leading to a disparity between macroeconomic data and microeconomic sentiment[2] - The PPI is expected to face challenges in turning positive in 2026, with inflation anticipated to recover slowly due to structural factors and weak financial cycles[2] Currency and Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar is expected to enter a long-term downtrend, influenced by its overvaluation relative to purchasing power parity and the US government's intention to promote a weaker dollar to reduce trade deficits[3] - The Chinese yuan is projected to appreciate gradually, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US, as well as China's significant trade surplus with regions like the EU and ASEAN[3] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The stock market is favored over bonds, with a slow bull market anticipated in China driven by factors such as improved global liquidity from a weak dollar and strategic government support for capital markets[4] - Commodity prices are expected to enter a long-term upward cycle, driven by the weak dollar, supply chain restructuring, and increased demand for physical assets due to expansive fiscal policies[4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electrical equipment industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of industry valuation driven by anti-involution measures and the growth opportunities presented by new technologies such as copper substitution for silver and the industrialization of perovskite materials [7] - The offshore wind power sector is expected to see significant growth, with companies expanding their overseas operations to enhance profitability [7] Summary by Sections Electricity Prices - The report indicates a downward trend in electricity prices for new energy, with spot prices declining due to oversupply, negatively impacting investment demand, particularly in the photovoltaic sector [1][12][21] Photovoltaics - Short-term demand for photovoltaics is weak, with production declining in recent months. The domestic market is constrained by electricity prices, while the European market faces challenges due to insufficient grid infrastructure. The U.S. market is hindered by the rapid phase-out of subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act [2] - The focus is on the supply side, with anti-involution measures showing positive effects, leading to price recovery in the industry chain. The estimated component price is projected to be between 0.80 and 0.85 yuan/W, assuming a 5% net profit margin across various segments [2][41] - Investment opportunities are identified in the valuation recovery from anti-involution and advancements in new technologies [2] Wind Power - The report emphasizes the growth trend in wind power, particularly in the European market, where onshore and offshore wind power are expected to grow at CAGRs of 14% and 34%, respectively. The first half of 2025 saw a significant increase in offshore wind power FID amounts, which grew by 1.8 times year-on-year [3] - The report notes that the wind turbine bidding prices have been recovering since Q3 2024, indicating improved profitability for wind turbine manufacturers. The trend towards larger wind turbines is expected to ease price pressures [3][69] - The global wind power supply chain is primarily located in the Asia-Pacific region, with China being a core supplier. Many components are sourced from China for the European and American markets, providing opportunities for Chinese wind power companies to expand internationally [3][60][70]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric equipment industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is expected to experience a new demand cycle and material iteration upgrade in 2026, driven by the growth in new energy vehicle demand and advancements in battery technology [2] - Key focus areas for 2026 include the outlook for lithium battery demand, the potential intensification of supply-demand balance, supply-side expansion conditions, and the limits of price increases under tight supply-demand conditions [2] Summary by Sections 2025 Review: Industry Bottom Confirmed, Energy Storage Battery Demand Exceeds Expectations - The lithium battery industry confirmed its bottom in 2025, with energy storage demand driving global battery shipments to approximately 2.26 TWh, a year-on-year increase of about 49% [13][16] - The supply side experienced a negative feedback loop in both quantity and price, leading to a tightening of supply and price increases in certain lithium materials [13][15] 2026 Supply and Demand Outlook: Tight Balance Continues, Four Key Issues - Demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow, particularly in commercial vehicles, which will enhance battery capacity per vehicle [20][23] - The supply-demand balance is likely to tighten further, with a projected battery shipment of over 2.7 TWh in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% [25][26] - Supply-side expansion is constrained due to general profitability and cash flow issues within the lithium battery industry, limiting aggressive capacity increases [37][41] 2026 Material Iteration Outlook: New Technologies Gradually Realizing - High-pressure lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) is expected to see increased industrialization in 2026, driven by the demand for fast-charging capabilities in electric vehicles [55] - Silicon-based anodes are anticipated to gain market share, with production expected to rise significantly in consumer applications [58] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on solid-state batteries, high-pressure LiFePO4, silicon-based anodes, and sodium batteries as key areas for investment in the evolving lithium battery landscape [2]

Group 1: Currency Appreciation Factors - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD is attributed to a 1.2% increase from November 24 to December 23, approaching the "7" mark[1] - The depreciation of the USD, with a 2.3% drop in the USD index, has led to a passive appreciation of the RMB[7] - Strong export performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.4% until November, supports the RMB's appreciation[8] Group 2: Future Outlook and Impacts - The trend of RMB appreciation is expected to continue, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US[13] - China's significant trade surplus, exceeding $1 trillion in the first 11 months, necessitates RMB appreciation[8] - The appreciation of the RMB enhances the attractiveness of Chinese assets, potentially increasing foreign capital inflow[17] - Export-oriented companies may face challenges due to reduced competitiveness, while import-oriented firms could benefit from lower costs[17] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential underperformance of the Chinese economy and unexpected tightening of US monetary policy[18] - Diplomatic pressures may arise from the expanding trade surplus, necessitating a balanced approach to currency appreciation[16]