[Table_Main] 插电混动汽车进化论：经济性带来持续 繁荣，但终将因技术革命改变 报告要点 繁荣：中国插电混合动力（下简称插混）汽车市场增速连续 3 年多超过纯电 动汽车，补能效率的优势一直存在，经济性是本轮插混爆发的主因。中国市场 通勤需求大，2021 年开始，一系列购置成本和通勤油耗双低的混动产品带来 了销量爆发。这些主流混动技术主要通过发动机只发电，电机驱动车辆的串 联工作模式解决通勤油耗问题，将发动机转速和功率均与汽车行驶状态"解 耦"（解绑），避免频繁启停和低速、低功率运转损害燃油经济性。在串联结 构基础上，车企不断优化混动架构，降低制造成本。 纯电动汽车补能效率逐渐提升，插混汽车能否持续保持经济性成为后续发展 的关键。随着纯电动汽车单车带电量增加、快充技术普及和充电网络持续布 局，插混补能效率的优势逐渐减弱，经济性将决定插混市场会长期繁荣或仅 仅是全面电动化之前的过渡。 演化：插混汽车可分为发动机可直驱车辆（PHEV，取狭义概念便于区分）和 不可直驱车辆（EREV）两类，有以下趋势： 1） 传统车企凭借在发动机技术，燃油车车型平台等方面的产品技术积累，不 断优化 PHEV 产品。PHEV ...

海外宏观：关税战对经济冲击弱化，通胀开始抬头。6 月全球制造业 PMI 指数 录得 50.3%，重回景气区间。我们认为关税战对于经济的第一轮冲击正在弱 化。其主要原因在于随着美国豁免了对外的"对等关税"，并和各国关税谈判 持续进行，市场主体对于过高关税的担忧逐步降温，并恢复了较多的经贸活动。 全球贸易也有所恢复，典型出口国韩国、越南出口表现均较好。美国"滞胀" 预期降温，但是关税对通胀影响初步显现。我们预计随着关税传导效应进一步 显现，未来几个月内美国通胀还会继续上升，这也将降低美联储降息概率。 国内宏观：上半年运行良好，但边际变化值得关注。二季度中国 GDP 实际同 比增长 5.2%，表现良好。值得注意的是，二季度名义 GDP 同比增速只有 3.9% ， 较一季度下降了 0.6 个百分点，降幅较大，是 2023 年以来的最低增速。G DP 名义增速与实际增速之间的差值进一步扩大，这会导致企业和居民对经济的体 感受到负面影响。由于实际 GDP 表现较好，所以我们认为政策的定力会增强， 预计短期内不急于推出大规模经济刺激政策，政策节奏会视三季度经济走势而 定。6 月份经济的边际变化值得关注：第一是消费走弱。第二 ...

关税战后的全球新秩序 报告要点 4月2日,美国总统特朗普发动新一轮面向全球几乎所有国家的关税战。虽然 目前关税战力度已经大大减轻,但我们认为关税战造成的影响仍将非常深远。 特朗普在全球范围内发动大规模关税战,其目的有以下几点:一是缩减美国的 贸易逆差;二是促进美国制造业回流;三是保障国家安全,遏制中国发展。但 是特朗普政府也面临着现实约束,美国债券市场的稳定性至关重要;美国 通胀 压力和特朗普的支持率也制约着特朗普关税政策。目前关税谈判的结果还存在 较大不确定性,但是在面临多重现实约束和宪政困境下,美国对外关税很难达 到４月２日公布的最高水平,我们预计最终实际落地的关税幅度会大幅削减, 更可能是略高于 10%的基础关税水平，是市场可以接受的范围。 在特朗普发动新一轮关税战之后,各大机构和经济学者均下调了对于海外经 济的预期。但从全球经济的实际表现来看,到目前为止各国受到的冲击有限。 证券研究报告| 宏观研究 宏观研究 2025.07.17 目期: 分析师 尤春野 登记编码: S0950523100001 @ : vouchunye1@wkzq.com.cn 我们认为未来关税对全球经济的负面影响还会陆续显现,但 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 关税战后的全球新秩序 报告要点 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普发动新一轮面向全球几乎所有国家的关税战。虽然 目前关税战力度已经大大减轻，但我们认为关税战造成的影响仍将非常深远。 特朗普在全球范围内发动大规模关税战，其目的有以下几点：一是缩减美国的 贸易逆差；二是促进美国制造业回流；三是保障国家安全，遏制中国发展。但 是特朗普政府也面临着现实约束，美国债券市场的稳定性至关重要；美国通胀 压力和特朗普的支持率也制约着特朗普关税政策。目前关税谈判的结果还存在 较大不确定性，但是在面临多重现实约束和宪政困境下，美国对外关税很难达 到 4 月 2 日公布的最高水平，我们预计最终实际落地的关税幅度会大幅削减， 更可能是略高于 10%的基础关税水平，是市场可以接受的范围。 在特朗普发动新一轮关税战之后，各大机构和经济学者均下调了对于海外经 济的预期。但从全球经济的实际表现来看，到目前为止各国受到的冲击有限。 我们认为未来关税对全球经济的负面影响还会陆续显现，但是影响可控，有望 避免大衰退。对于中国而言，短期内经济会面临一定压力，乐观情形下关税战 对中国经济的影响略小于 0.5 个百分点。对中国经 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Main] 中央城市工作会议-不能简单理解为棚 改信号 事件描述 新华社北京 7 月 15 日电 中央城市工作会议 7 月 14 日至 15 日在北京举行。 中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平出席会议并发表重要讲话。 事件点评 城镇化下半场：从高速发展进入高质量发展。我国城市化已由"拼速度、扩规 模"转向"提质增效、内涵发展"。本次中央城市工作会议用"创新、宜居、美 丽、韧性、文明、智慧"六维目标为现代化人民城市画像，并强调"城镇化正 从快速增长期转向稳定发展期，城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量 提质增效为主的阶段"。这意味着城市治理考核将从土地出让与 GDP 转向公 共服务、生态韧性与文化传承，粗放式扩张时代基本结束。 登记编码：S0950523100001 [相关研究 Table_DocReport] 风险提示： 1、下半年经济增速仍然受到海外不确定性挑战； 2、财政力度偏弱，稳地产依然是首要工作之一。 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 1 / 7 城镇集群与产业集群协同，强调"集约高效"。 七大任务共同指向"集约高 效"——通过都市圈与城市群网 ...

[Table_Main] 有色月跟踪：掘金亚欧大陆腹地，中亚 金属矿产资源全景解析 报告要点 6 月 16 日-18 日，第二届中国-中亚五国峰会在哈萨克斯坦阿斯塔纳市举办， 峰会期间中国同中亚五国达成多项合作共识，其中，矿产是中国-中亚六大优 先合作方向之一。中亚五国地处欧亚大陆的中间地带，矿产资源极为丰富，多 种矿产资源储量居世界前列，但矿产资源开发利用程度较低，矿业投资潜力 巨大。中国矿企一方面要加强对中亚五国优质矿产的投资力度，积极拓展合 作方式及合作领域，另一方面也要结合自身优势，综合评价矿业项目，做好风 险预警防范。 2025 年 6 月宏观环境利多发酵，有色金属板块领涨。本月，中国央行货币政 策委员会第二季度例会召开，称将灵活把握政策实施力度和节奏，加力实施 增量政策；海外伊以冲突缓和，但仍有反复，特朗普继续喊话美联储降息，美 元承压回落，投资者偏好提升推动基本金属走强。受资源稀缺性、政策管控以 及下游新兴产业需求增长的影响，锂电、稀土、钼、钨等战略小金属价格上 涨。未来需重点关注美联储降息节奏、美国关税政策和伊以冲突局势变化 等。 全球多国围绕关键性矿产资源保护及开发密集出台政策，主要手段有资 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric equipment industry as "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The all-solid-state battery industry is currently in its initial development stage, with significant challenges related to material and equipment that need to be overcome for mass production [2][36] - The report suggests that the all-solid-state battery may be at a similar stage to the new energy vehicle industry in 2009-2010, characterized by policy catalysis, technology convergence, and supply chain improvement [36] - It is anticipated that small-scale production of all-solid-state batteries may begin around 2027, with large-scale production expected after 2030 [36] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The all-solid-state battery technology has made initial progress, primarily focusing on sulfide electrolytes, but faces significant challenges, particularly with the solid-solid interface [2][10] - The report identifies the solid-solid interface as a critical issue, which is influenced by both material properties and manufacturing processes [10][20] Material Challenges - The main materials for all-solid-state batteries include solid electrolytes, with sulfide electrolytes being the focus. Key challenges include air sensitivity and the need for cost reduction [18] - The cost of lithium sulfide, a core material, is currently high due to limited production capacity, with prices previously at 1000 RMB/g and expected to reach 500,000 RMB/ton as a potential industrialization milestone [18] Equipment and Manufacturing - The report highlights the importance of pressure in both the manufacturing and operational phases of all-solid-state batteries, with specific attention to the need for appropriate stacking pressure to ensure effective ion transport [20][23] - Equipment such as isostatic pressing is crucial for maintaining solid-solid contact during manufacturing, but scalability remains a challenge [23][26] Performance Metrics - The report emphasizes that the core performance metrics for all-solid-state batteries will focus on cycle stability and rate performance, particularly after multiple cycles of use [28] - Current industry standards suggest that single-cell power batteries should achieve a cycle life of 1000-1500 cycles, with a capacity retention rate of at least 80% [27][28]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 稳定币：技术革新重构全球支付体系 报告要点 全球支付体系走向多元化。2008 年美国金融危机暴露出来的中心化金融体系 的脆弱性，引发公众对美国金融体系的信任崩塌。金融危机催生了新的技 术发 展，比特币，以构建一个无需通过金融机构的点对点的电子支付体系为核 心目 标，通过密码学和分布式账本技术来解决支付交易中的信任与双重支 付问题 ， 开启了去中心化支付体系向中心化体系的挑战。技术的进步带来了效 率提升 ， 推动了监管升级，链接加密代币与法定货币的稳定币被逐步纳入金 融监 管框 架；技术的进步也为全球支付体系多元化提供了基础，作为替代传统跨境 支付 体系的第二选择，央行数字货币（CBDC）被用于建设新的多边跨境支 付体系 。 全球支付体系走向境内零售支付由稳定币或稳定币/央行数字货币（CB DC）组 合主导、境内批发支付由央行数字货币（CBDC）主导，跨境零售支付由 稳定 币主导、跨境批发支付由多个多边央行数字货币（CBDC）合作链与传统 跨境 支付体系并存的多元化体系。 稳定币未来的增长点来自于跨境零售支付和资产代币化（RWA）。稳定币作 为价值转移媒介在跨境零售支付场景具有高效低 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the electrical equipment industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The report expresses an optimistic outlook for the energy storage sector, predicting significant growth in installed capacity in China, with a projected increase of 43.7 GW/109.8 GWh in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 103%/136% [1][13] - It argues that the energy storage industry is just beginning its exponential growth phase, with a cumulative grid connection of 42.4 GWh and a tendering capacity of 176.6 GWh in the first half of 2025, showing year-on-year increases of 166%/281% [1][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term demand assessments and the industry's lifecycle position over short-term growth rates, suggesting that the energy storage market has 8.6 times growth potential before reaching its peak demand [2][10] Summary by Sections 1. Prerequisites for Energy Storage Demand - Energy storage demand arises primarily from two conditions: issues with photovoltaic (PV) consumption and the affordability of energy storage costs [17][25] - The report highlights that the most critical task for energy storage is to address the daily consumption issues of PV energy, especially as PV generation becomes a larger part of the energy mix [18][22] 2. Long-term Demand Forecast for Energy Storage - The report forecasts that global annual new installations of energy storage will peak between 2030 and 2035, with an expected annual addition of 264 GW and a total capacity exceeding 1.5 TWh [2][35] - It notes that the current energy storage penetration rate in China is only 4.9%, indicating significant room for growth as the industry matures [12][45] 3. Importance of Industry Lifecycle Position - The report stresses that understanding the industry's lifecycle position is crucial for investment decisions, as short-term demand predictions can often underestimate growth potential [40][43] - It draws parallels with the solar industry, which has seen consistent growth beyond initial forecasts, suggesting that energy storage may follow a similar trajectory [41][42] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong technological leadership in key areas such as electrochemistry, power electronics, and grid support [47] - It also recommends looking for companies with global order acquisition capabilities and those that can expand production capacity internationally to mitigate geopolitical risks [48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a key area for mineral exploration, particularly focusing on antimony resources in southern Xinjiang, with significant investments planned for geological exploration projects [1][4] - The report indicates that Xinjiang's three major mineralization belts possess rich mineral resources, with the western Kunlun-Altyn mineralization belt being particularly noted for its antimony deposits [2] - Recent years have seen an acceleration in the granting of antimony mining rights in Xinjiang, with several notable projects underway, including the Huangyangling and Shierkule antimony mines, which are expected to contribute significantly to the region's antimony output [3] Summary by Sections Exploration and Development - The report outlines that during the 14th Five-Year Plan, Xinjiang will continue to prioritize exploration and mining activities, particularly in the Hotan region, aiming to enhance the domestic supply of antimony resources [4] - Specific plans include the establishment of a new mining development framework in Hotan, targeting the discovery of 2-3 medium to large mineral deposits and increasing antimony resources by 50,000 tons during the planning period [4] Market Outlook - The report concludes that as eastern China's antimony resources are rapidly depleting, the westward shift of resources presents a viable alternative for the mining industry, with Xinjiang's favorable geological conditions and rich mineral resources positioning it as a critical base for mineral resources in China [4]