电动两轮车行业：行业整合引发马太效应，强者恒强创造Alpha机会

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Yadea (1585 HK) and Ninebot (689009 CH), while providing a "Neutral" rating for Greendot (2451 HK) [4][6]. Core Insights - The electric two-wheeler industry in China is experiencing new developments and opportunities driven by three main factors: the unfulfilled demand for replacement due to new national standards, the favorable old-for-new policies, and the growth in both consumer (To C) and business (To B) demand. The forecasted sales for electric two-wheelers in China from 2024 to 2027 are 53.6 million, 55.2 million, 58 million, and 61.5 million units respectively [2][3][28]. - The global demand for electric two-wheelers is increasing, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.6% from 2023 to 2027 for overseas markets. Chinese manufacturers have advantages in supply chain and cost, with export sales expected to grow at an 11.5% CAGR [3][33][38]. Summary by Sections Chinese Market - The industry is driven by three main factors: 1. The demand for replacement due to new national standards is not fully released, with over 40% of vehicles needing replacement [8][13]. 2. The old-for-new policy is beneficial, with a significant existing vehicle base of nearly 400 million units, potentially increasing the replacement rate by 2-3 percentage points [16]. 3. New demand from both consumer and business sectors is contributing to sales growth, with electric two-wheelers serving as a complement to four-wheel vehicles in congested urban areas [18][21]. Overseas Market - The global demand for electric two-wheelers is steadily increasing, with a projected CAGR of 25.6% from 2023 to 2027. By 2027, overseas markets are expected to account for 33% of global sales [33][38]. - China, as the largest manufacturer, benefits from production scale, supply chain advantages, and diverse product offerings, with exports expected to grow at an 11.5% CAGR from 2022 to 2027 [38][43]. Industry Integration - The report highlights that industry consolidation is timely, favoring leading companies with competitive advantages. Future competition will focus on product differentiation and high-quality profit growth [4][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that maintain sales growth, prioritize product quality, and invest in research and development [4][6]. Company Analysis - Yadea (1585 HK) is expected to continue increasing its market share, with growth anticipated in both domestic and overseas markets [6]. - Ninebot (689009 CH) is positioned for growth through multiple business drivers, including electric two-wheelers and robotics [6]. - Greendot (2451 HK) is expanding its store capacity but needs to improve profitability [6].