交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 9 月 5 日 今日焦点 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 新意网集团 1686 HK | 中国太平保险 | | 966 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 负债端表现突出 | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 港元 16.17 | 目标价: 港元 20.00↑ | 潜在涨幅: +23.7% | | 万丽, CFA, FRM | wanli@bocomgroup.com | | 盈利增长主要来自保险服务业绩。中国太平保险 2025 上半年归母净利润 同比增 12.2%，税前利润同比降 38%，其中保险服务业绩同比增 9.5%， 但投资业绩下降。新业务价值增长的渠道贡献较为均衡，向分红险转型 成效显著。财险 COR 改善，符合行业趋势。 维持买入评级。公司上半年负债端表现较为突出，向分红险转型成效显 著，新业务价值对于利率变动敏感性显著下降，但资产端仍具改善空间 。我们基本维持盈利预测。考虑股票市场 ...

交银国际研究 消息快报 数据中心 2025 年 9 月 4 日 新意网集团 (1686 HK) 2025 财年业绩稍低于预期；估值已充分反映良好基本面 谢骐聪, CFA, FRM philip.tse@bocomgroup.com 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1815 2025 财年业绩稍低于预期。2025 财年公司收入 29.38 亿元（港元，下 同），同比增长 10.0%，主因新数据中心带来电力容量及新数据中心爬坡 拉动。因租金收入构成及成本优化，EBITDA 利润率同比轻微上升约 3 个百 分点至 72%。经调整 EBITDA 为 21.28 亿元，同比上升 15%，稍低于我们 2025 财年预测的约 22 亿元，主要是由于 MEGA IDC 1 期租户进驻时间较我 们预测稍晚。经营性现金流入 20.63 亿元，同比上升 23.5%。公司建议派 发末期股息每股 0.12 元，同比上升约 7%，派息率维持在约 50%，公司 ...

Core Insights - NIO's 2Q25 revenue rebounded to approximately 19.01 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.9% [1] - The company is optimistic about its 3Q25 guidance, expecting deliveries of 87,000 to 91,000 vehicles and revenue between 21.8 billion to 22.9 billion RMB, driven primarily by the launch of the new L90 model [1][2] - For 4Q25, NIO aims to achieve a combined monthly sales target of approximately 50,000 vehicles, with an expected gross margin improvement to 17%-18% [1] Revenue and Sales Forecast - The sales forecast for NIO in 2025 has been raised from 300,000 to 340,000 vehicles, with revenue expectations adjusted upward by 17.5% to 99.5 billion RMB, reflecting strong sales expectations for the L90 and ES8 models [2] - The market focus is on the sustainability of marginal improvements, cost reduction effectiveness, and whether profitability can be achieved in 4Q25 [2] Investment Rating and Price Target - Based on the revised revenue forecast, the target price for NIO has been increased to 62.7 HKD (8.0 USD), corresponding to a 2025 price-to-sales ratio of 1.2 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for NIO Inc. (蔚来汽车) is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 62.75, indicating a potential upside of 22.9% from the current price of HKD 51.05 [1][10]. Core Insights - NIO's revenue showed a significant recovery in Q2 2025, with total revenue reaching approximately RMB 190.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.9%. The automotive revenue was about RMB 163 billion, aligning with market expectations [7]. - The company aims to achieve a monthly sales target of approximately 50,000 vehicles by Q4 2025, driven by the launch of new models and improvements in product mix [7]. - The report projects a strong outlook for Q3 2025, with expected deliveries between 87,000 to 91,000 vehicles and revenue between RMB 218 billion to RMB 229 billion, marking a historical high [7]. - The forecast for 2025 sales has been raised from 300,000 to 340,000 vehicles, with revenue expectations adjusted upwards by 17.5% to RMB 99.5 billion, reflecting strong sales expectations for the L90 and ES8 models [7]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the projected revenue is RMB 99,477 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.3% [6][12]. - The net loss for 2025 is estimated at RMB 15,767 million, which is an improvement compared to previous years [6][12]. - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles is expected to recover, with the report indicating a potential increase in margins due to cost reductions and improved sales performance [7]. Market Performance - NIO's stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 46.7%, with a 52-week high of HKD 59.15 and a low of HKD 24.50 [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sustainable marginal improvements and cost reduction effects to meet market expectations [7].

交银国际研究 2025 全年及长期业务增长预期：公司对收入规模有较强的把控力，现阶 段，随着扭亏为盈目标基本实现，收入规模加速放量进程跟进，公司将 继续深入挖掘头部客户需求，并拓展中腰部客户等相对下沉市场，预计 2025 年全年收入超 70 亿元，4 年后收入规模达到 200 亿元，利润率达 到 8-10%。对应 2026 年 4.5 倍市销率，目标价 81 港元，长期仍有上调 空间，维持买入评级。 | 国轩高科 | | 002074 CH | | --- | --- | --- | | 动力业务增长稳健，固态电池布局进展领先； | | 评级: 买入 | | 维持买入 | | | | 收盘价: 人民币 40.20 | 目标价: 人民币 41.14↑ | 潜在涨幅: +2.3% | | 李柳晓, PhD, CFA | joyce.li@bocomgroup.com | | 动力电池出货增长显著，但毛利率有所下滑。1H25 收入 193.9 亿元，同 比 +15.5% ， 其 中 动 力 / 储 能 电 池 收 入 140.3 亿 /45.6 亿 元 ， 同 比 +19.9%/+5.1%。上年公司毛利率 16.4 ...

交银国际研究 消息快报 汽车行业 8 月多家新能源车企销量创新高，看好 9 月车市销量表现 8 月新能源汽车销售延续增长，蔚来、小鹏、零跑创月度新高。根据部分已公 布的车企交付量数据，得益于以旧换新补贴政策，以及各车企推出的促销活动 ，8 月新能源汽车延续增长态势，其中 11 家车企销量同/环比增长约 13.4%/7.4%。此外，多家车企得益于新车型定价优势，销量创历史新高。 比亚迪：行业龙头比亚迪乘用车 8 月销量 371,501 辆，同比基本持平。其中比 亚迪汽车王朝和海洋当月销售 342,838 辆，方程豹汽车销售 16,265 辆，腾势汽 车销售 11,993 辆，仰望汽车销售 405 辆。出口方面，8 月比亚迪出口 80,464 辆 ，同比增长 146%，海外销售占比 22%。 蔚来汽车：8 月交付新车 31,305 辆，同/环比+55.2%/+49.0%，创历史新高。其 中，蔚来品牌/乐道品牌/firefly 萤火虫当月交付新车 10,525/16,434/4,346 辆。 乐道 L90 上市首月交付 10,575 辆。蔚来 ES8 预计在 9 月正式上市，租电 30.88 万元/整车购买 41. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 81, indicating a potential upside of 34.7% from the current price of HKD 60.15 [5][6]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning its business model from customized solutions to standardized platform delivery, focusing on building vertical models to provide decision-making support to clients [1]. - Revenue growth is expected to be strong, with an annualized growth rate exceeding 30% from 2024 to 2028 [1]. - The company is on a path to profitability, with long-term profit margins projected to be between 8% and 10% [1]. - The AI+X new business initiatives leverage existing technology to support long-term development [1]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's total revenue increased by 41% to RMB 2.626 billion, with the "Xianzhi AI" platform accounting for 82% of total revenue [1]. - Cost growth was 52%, leading to a 5 percentage point decline in gross profit margin year-on-year [1]. - The company reported a significant reduction in net losses compared to the previous year [1]. Customer Profile - The company's clients primarily consist of large state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, and foreign companies, with the top three industries being finance, energy, and telecommunications [1]. - The average revenue from benchmark clients increased significantly, with a retention rate of over 90% and a net revenue growth rate of 110% [1]. Business Expansion - The company is expanding into new business areas, including consumer electronics and energy storage, with expected contributions to revenue in the coming periods [1]. - The AI+X initiatives aim to optimize decision-making in various sectors, including real-time power supply and demand forecasting [1]. Long-term Growth Expectations - The company anticipates total revenue to exceed RMB 7 billion in 2025, with a target of reaching RMB 20 billion in four years, alongside maintaining profit margins of 8% to 10% [1].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 9 月 2 日 今日焦点 北方华创 002371 CH 半导体设备各业务线增长趋势不减；维持买入 评级: 买入 业绩超预期，汽车 CIS/模拟业务亮点突出：1H25 收入/归母净利润 139.6 亿/20.3 亿元（人民币，下同），均超业绩预告中位数和我们的预期。其 中汽车图像传感器贡献主要增长，1H25 同比增 30% 达 37.9 亿元，占图 像传感器收入（103.5 亿元）37%，接近智能手机图像传感器收入 39.2 亿 元（占比 38%）。 收盘价: 人民币 377.84 潜在涨幅: +13.8% 目标价: 人民币 430.00↑ 王大卫, PhD, CFA Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com 1H25 业绩基本符合预期，关注之后利润率水平：1H25 收入 161.4 亿元（人 民币，下同），（包含芯源微）同口径同比增 29.5%，毛利率 42.2%，同比 降 3.6ppts。归母净利润 32.1 亿元，同比增 15.0%。EPS 4.45 元，同比增 14.2%。 不同设备业务国产替代继续高速推进：刻蚀设备 1H25 收入超 50 亿元 （202 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 消费 2025 年 9 月 1 日 伊利股份 (600887 CH) 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 人民币 28.57 人民币 34.50↑ +20.7% 2Q25 业绩超预期，液体乳业务稳健发展；维持买入 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 126,179 | 115,780 | 119,064 | 123,078 | 126,999 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.4 | -8.2 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 10,429 | 12,453 | 10,980 | 12,086 | 13,092 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 1.63 | 1.96 | 1.72 | 1.90 | 2.06 | | 同比增长 (%) | 10.6 | 20.0 | -11.8 | 10.1 | 8.3 | | 前EPS预测值 (人民币) | | ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 汽车 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 9 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币 | | 136.91 | 人民币 | 180.50 | +31.8% | | | 赛力斯 (601127 CH) | | | | | | | 业绩强劲，2Q25 毛利率新高，强周期驱动下延续量价齐升，维持买入 1 年股价表现 : FactSet 8/24 12/24 4/25 8/25 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 601127 CH 上证综指 股份资料 | 52周高位 (人民币) | 145.87 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (人民币) | 73.74 | | 市值 (百万人民币) | 206,703.98 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 62.19 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 2.64 | | 200天平均价 (人民币) | 129.80 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 陈庆 angus.chan@bocomgr ...