Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA US) with a target price of $200.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.3% from the current price of $173.47 [1][3][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the long-term growth potential of Alibaba's AI and cloud businesses, emphasizing the company's comprehensive AI strategy and its efforts to restructure its e-commerce framework through instant retail investments [2][8]. - The financial forecasts for Alibaba show a slight increase in total revenue projections for FY26E to RMB 1,040,807 million, reflecting a growth rate of 4.5% [6][10]. - The report notes that Alibaba's stock price has recently experienced a pullback, with projected P/E ratios for FY25/26 at 23 and 21 times, respectively [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Total revenue for FY26E is projected at RMB 1,040,807 million, with a growth rate of 4.5% [6][10]. - **Profitability Metrics**: Adjusted net profit for FY26E is expected to be RMB 117,622 million, with a net profit margin of 11.3% [6][10]. - **Segment Performance**: The report provides detailed segment forecasts, indicating that the Chinese e-commerce group is expected to generate RMB 572,000 million in revenue for FY26E, while the cloud intelligence group is projected to reach RMB 151,900 million [9][10]. Business Outlook - **E-commerce**: The report anticipates that GMV growth will align with market trends, with a focus on the impact of instant retail on user engagement and monetization capabilities [8][9]. - **Cloud Business**: Revenue growth for the cloud segment is expected to exceed 30%, with stable profit margins [8][9]. - **Other Ventures**: The report mentions the successful launch of AI products and their integration into various business lines, which may influence overall profitability [8][9].

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 10 月 21 日 中国宏观 中国经济 3 季度：韧性犹存，转型加速 2025 年前三季度，中国经济展现出较强韧性。前三季度 GDP 同比增长 5.2%， 其中 3 季度增长 4.8%，整体仍运行在合理区间。环比来看，3 季度 GDP 环比增 长1.1%，与2季度持平，增速变化主要源于：1）国际层面，关税情况波动下， 全球经贸关系以及国际贸易增长面临不确定性；2）中国经济正处于结构调整 关键期，新旧动能接续转换。总体来看，前三季度中国经济在复杂环境中保持 总体平稳、稳中有进的发展态势，新旧动能转换持续推进，高质量发展取得积 极进展，期待内生动力进一步加强，巩固经济回升向好基础。 从需求结构来看，内需贡献仍在稳步提升，前三季度最终消费支出对经济增长 贡献率达 53.5%，较 2024 全年提升 9 个百分点，继续发挥经济增长主引擎作 用。对外贸易展现强劲韧性，在全球贸易增长乏力的背景下实现逆势增长，前 三季度货物进出口总额同比增长 4.0%，其中出口增长 7.1%，凸显中国制造业 的全球竞争优势和产业链韧性。9 月当月经济数据有所分化：工业生产超预期 反弹至 6.5%，而消 ...

每日晨报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 交银国际研究 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 今日焦点 | 康方生物 | | 9926 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 依沃西较 | PD-1 显著提升一线肺鳞癌 PFS，海外开 评级: | 买入 | | 发路径进一步清晰 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 122.60 | 目标价: 港元 183.00 | 潜在涨幅: +49.3% | | 丁政宁 | Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com | | 依沃西第二项头对头 PD-1 III 期研究再获强阳性数据：公司在 ESMO 大会 上公布了 HARMONi-6 研究的首次 PFS 分析结果。依沃西联合治疗组相比 对照组显示出具有统计学意义的 PFS 改善：mPFS 11.1 vs. 6.9 个月，HR 0.60，P<0.0001。关键亚组分析显示，依沃西在 PD-L1 低表达人群中显示 长拖尾效应。非头对头比较显示，依沃西中位 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 10 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 1.29 | 港元 | 1.54↓ | +19.4% | | | 协鑫科技 (3800 HK) | | | | | | | 多晶硅价格显著上涨推动扭亏，增发募资用于产能收储等多种用途 | 个股评级 | | --- | | 买入 | 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 10/24 2/25 6/25 10/25 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 3800 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 1.72 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 0.73 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 38,694.48 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 1,449.64 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 19.44 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 1.07 | | 资料来源 : FactS ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 今日焦点 | 台积电 | | TSM US | | --- | --- | --- | | AI 需求较三个月前更强，关注后续产能规划；上 | | 评级: 买入 | | 调目标价 | | | | 收盘价: 美元 295.08 | 目标价: 美元 360.00 | 潜在涨幅: +22.0% | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | 3Q25 业绩超预期，再次上调全年收入指引：3Q25 收入 331 亿美元，毛利 率 59.5%，超过我们预期，亦超之前公司指引上限（330 亿美元/57.5%）。 管理层指引 4Q25 收入 322-334 亿美元，并将全年收入指引由同比增 30%+ 上调至同比增 35%左右（Mid-thirties）。公司指引 4Q25 毛利率 59%-61%， 经营利润率 49%-51%，均强于我们之前预期。 2026 年及之后产能规划为焦点：管理层将 2025 年资本开支上调至 400-420 亿美元（前值 380-420 美元）。管理层此前对于 AI 收入中期预测为 2024 ...

Banking Sector - In September, new RMB loans amounted to 1.29 trillion yuan, which was in line with market expectations but represented a year-on-year decrease of 300 billion yuan, primarily driven by bill financing [1] - New social financing in September reached 3.53 trillion yuan, slightly exceeding market expectations, but still down 229.7 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The M1 growth rate was 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points month-on-month, while M2 growth was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points [1] - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable profitability in Q3, making it attractive for investment despite recent stock price adjustments [2] Securities Industry - It is anticipated that the profitability of listed securities firms will grow by 20% quarter-on-quarter and maintain a high year-on-year growth rate of around 50% in Q3 [3] - Brokerage revenue is expected to increase further due to a low base effect, and IPO fundraising is projected to see significant year-on-year growth [3] - The A-share securities industry index currently has a price-to-book ratio of 1.45, which is below the historical median of 1.51, indicating attractive valuation [3] E-commerce Sector (JD.com) - JD.com is expected to see revenue in Q3 meet expectations, with profits slightly exceeding prior forecasts [5] - Retail growth remains robust, although the growth rate for certain categories is impacted by high base effects from government subsidies [5] - The company is projected to narrow its losses in the food delivery segment, with improved user engagement and significant growth in user numbers [5][6] Restaurant Sector (Jiumaojiu) - Jiumaojiu's same-store sales continue to face pressure, with declines of 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% for its brands in Q3 [7] - Despite negative growth, there are initial signs of recovery, particularly for the Taier brand, which has shown improvement in major cities [7][8] - The company has adjusted its store count, reducing inefficient locations, which has led to marginal improvements in operational efficiency [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD (JD US) with a target price of $40.00, indicating a potential upside of 20.7% from the current price of $33.14 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that JD's revenue for Q3 will meet expectations, with a slight improvement in profit. Retail growth remains robust, driven by daily necessities, while losses in the food delivery segment are narrowing [2][7]. - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of RMB 1,331,641 million for 2025, with a growth rate of 14.9%. Adjusted net profit is projected at RMB 29,316 million, reflecting a net profit margin of 2.2% [6][14]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025E: RMB 1,331,641 million, with a growth rate of 14.9% [6][14]. - 2026E: RMB 1,423,703 million, with a growth rate of 6.9% [6][14]. - 2027E: RMB 1,522,435 million, with a growth rate of 6.9% [6][14]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Adjusted operating profit for 2025E is projected at RMB 15,943 million, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 1.2% [6][14]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025E is projected at RMB 29,316 million, with a net profit margin of 2.2% [6][14]. - **Sales Breakdown**: - Product sales are expected to reach RMB 1,050,729 million in 2025E, with a slight increase in both electric and non-electric categories [6][14]. - Service revenue is forecasted to be RMB 280,912 million in 2025E, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [6][14]. Market Position and Trends - JD's retail business is expected to maintain steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10% in retail sales, particularly in daily necessities [2][7]. - The food delivery segment is showing signs of improvement, with a reduction in losses and an increase in order volume compared to Q2 [2][7]. Stock Performance - The stock has a 52-week high of $45.21 and a low of $30.39, with a market capitalization of approximately $44.79 billion [5][11]. - Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 4.41% [5]. Analyst Coverage - The report is part of a broader coverage of internet and education companies by the research team at CMB International, which includes various other companies with "Buy" ratings [11][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [2][18]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast downward due to a slow recovery in same-store sales, maintaining a neutral rating with a target price reduced to HKD 2.32, reflecting a potential upside of 13.7% [6][18]. - Same-store sales for the third quarter showed declines, but there are initial signs of recovery, particularly in the "Tai Er" brand, which has seen improvements in major cities [6][19]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its store network and upgrading its "Tai Er" model, which is expected to drive sales recovery in the latter half of the year [6][19]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 have been slightly reduced to RMB 5,553 million, with net profit estimates adjusted to RMB 143 million [5][19]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 0.10, reflecting a significant decrease from previous estimates [5][19]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 18.8 times, down from earlier estimates [5][19]. Store Performance - As of the end of September, the total number of stores was 686, with a net decrease of 43 stores primarily due to the closure of underperforming locations [6][19]. - The "Tai Er" brand has implemented a new operational model, with 106 upgraded restaurants as of September, aiming to expand to over 200 by the end of 2025 [6][19]. Sales Metrics - The average daily sales for the third quarter showed declines of 9.3% for "Tai Er," 19.1% for "Song Hot Pot," and 14.8% for "Jiu Mao Jiu," although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous quarter [6][19]. - The table turnover rates for "Tai Er," "Song," and "Jiu Mao Jiu" were 3.3, 2.4, and 2.5 respectively, indicating slight improvements in operational efficiency [6][19].

Group 1: Earnings Growth - The expected earnings growth for listed securities firms in Q3 is projected to be 20% quarter-on-quarter and over 51% year-on-year[1] - In the first half of the year, the earnings of listed securities firms increased by 51.5% year-on-year, with Q1 and Q2 growth rates of 53% and 50% respectively[1] - The average daily trading volume of A-shares in the first three quarters was 1.62 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 104.6%, with Q3 showing a significant increase of 208.8%[1] Group 2: IPO and Fundraising - The total IPO fundraising amount in A-shares for the first three quarters was 77.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 62%[1] - Total equity fundraising reached 896.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.4 times, with a notable increase of 84% when excluding state-owned banks' directed placements[1] - The top three firms in A-share IPO underwriting amounts were CITIC, Guotai Junan, and Huatai[1] Group 3: Market Performance and Valuation - The CSI 300 index rose by 17.9% in the first three quarters, with small-cap indices, especially the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices, increasing by over 50%[1] - The current price-to-book ratio of the A-share securities industry index is 1.45, which is at the 44th historical percentile over the past 10 years, indicating a relatively low valuation[1] - The strong performance in Q3 is expected to support further valuation increases for the securities sector[1] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The securities sector is rated as having high investment value, with leading firms expected to benefit from favorable market conditions[1] - Buy ratings are maintained for CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and CICC, reflecting confidence in their performance[1]

Group 1: Legendary Biotech (LEGN US) - 3Q25 Carvykti sales reached $524 million, exceeding expectations with a year-on-year growth of 84% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 19% [1] - The U.S. market contributed $396 million in sales, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11%, while international sales reached $128 million, up 374% year-on-year and 58% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Johnson & Johnson reaffirmed its peak sales target for Carvykti at over $5 billion, expressing increased confidence in achieving this goal [1][2] Group 2: Internet Industry - Tencent's domestic mobile game revenue decreased by $2.7 billion (8%) year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year, although new games partially offset this decline [4] - Tencent's overseas revenue increased by $670 million (9%) year-on-year, driven by new game releases like Clash Royale [4] - NetEase's domestic revenue showed a slight increase of $0.7 million (1%), while overseas revenue grew by $1.6 million (18%) due to contributions from new games [4] Group 3: Battery Industry - In September 2025, China's domestic power battery installation volume reached 76.0 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 39.5% and a month-on-month increase of 21.6% [7] - Battery exports remained robust, totaling 26.7 GWh in September, with a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [7] - China's export controls on certain lithium battery materials and equipment are expected to improve the competitive landscape overseas, potentially enhancing profitability for leading companies with overseas production capabilities [7][8] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 12.0% this week, underperforming the broader market, with traditional Chinese medicine and internet healthcare sectors showing relatively better performance [9] - Institutions have been increasing their positions in high-value innovative drug stocks, despite a slight decrease in holdings of pharmaceutical stocks through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [9][10] - The upcoming ESMO conference is anticipated to provide significant data releases, with recommendations to focus on companies like CanSino Biologics and Hengrui Medicine [10]