交银国际研究 每日晨报 2026 年 2 月 26 日 今日焦点 | 金融行业 | | --- | | 银行业追踪：整体经营环境改善；关注股份 | | 制银行结构性机会 | | 金天 Timothy.Jin@bocomgroup.com | 伴随市场主体内生增长动力逐步修复，银行经营环境正在改善。以招商 银行（3968 HK/未评级）、中信银行（998 HK/未评级）等为代表的股份 制银行 2025 年经营业绩保持稳健。其中，招商银行作为公认的零售业务 标杆银行，当前中高端客群风险偏好在改善中，对营收贡献略有下降， 但整体营收、净利润等核心指标已有改善；中信银行作为传统对公银行， 净利润同比增速企稳回升。 2026 年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，财政、货币政策进一步发力有望 拉动企业端信贷需求，改善个人端投资和消费预期，助力银行业务发展 稳中向好；同时，净息差有所企稳，不良率保持低位，亦将为银行业绩 增长提供支撑。在长线资金持续入市过程中，建议重点关注基本面稳定、 同时股息较高的股份制银行的结构性机会。 | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 资料来源： FactSet 2/25 6/25 10/25 2/26 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 1347 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 122.70 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 25.75 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 125,206.32 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 10.47 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 26.72 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 75.36 | | 资料来源： FactSet | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1867 童钰枫 Carrie.Tong@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1804 | 科技 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 2 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 94.15 | 港元 120.00↑ | +27.5% | | | 华虹半导体 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the financial industry, suggesting a "Leading" rating for the sector over the next 12 months, indicating expected performance to be attractive compared to the benchmark index [16]. Core Insights - The financial industry is experiencing a recovery in credit demand from households, with January 2026 seeing new RMB loans of 4.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion yuan. However, household loans increased by 456.5 billion yuan, showing a marginal recovery in demand [4][5]. - The total social financing (社融) in January 2026 reached 7.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.2 billion yuan year-on-year, driven by fiscal efforts and seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival [4]. - M1 and M2 growth rates accelerated in January 2026, with M1 growing at 4.9% and M2 at 9.0%, indicating an increase in liquidity in the market [4]. - The report highlights a shift in deposit structure, with total new RMB deposits of 8.09 trillion yuan in January 2026, an increase of 3.77 trillion yuan year-on-year, although household deposits decreased by 339 billion yuan [4][5]. Summary by Sections Credit Demand - In January 2026, household loans increased by 456.5 billion yuan, with short-term loans rising by 159.4 billion yuan, while corporate loans totaled 4.45 trillion yuan, a decrease of 330 billion yuan year-on-year [4][5]. Social Financing - New social financing in January 2026 was 7.22 trillion yuan, with government bonds increasing by 283.1 billion yuan and bank acceptance bills rising by 163.9 billion yuan [4][5]. Monetary Supply - M1 growth rate was 4.9%, ending a three-month decline, while M2 growth rate was 9.0%, indicating improved liquidity conditions in the financial system [4]. Deposits - New RMB deposits totaled 8.09 trillion yuan in January 2026, with household deposits decreasing by 339 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate deposits increased by 2.82 trillion yuan [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the financial industry, suggesting a "Leading" rating for the sector over the next 12 months, indicating expected performance to be attractive compared to the benchmark index [16]. Core Insights - In January 2026, new RMB loans amounted to 4.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion yuan, with household loans increasing by 456.5 billion yuan, showing a marginal recovery in demand [4][5]. - The total social financing (社融) in January 2026 reached 7.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.66 trillion yuan year-on-year, driven by fiscal efforts and seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival [4][5]. - M1 and M2 growth rates accelerated in January, with M1 increasing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0%, indicating improved liquidity in the market [4][5]. - The report highlights a shift in deposit structure, with total new RMB deposits reaching 8.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.77 trillion yuan, although household deposits saw a decrease [4][5]. Summary by Sections Credit and Social Financing Data - New RMB loans in January 2026: 47,100 million yuan, down 4,200 million yuan year-on-year [5]. - Household loans: 4,565 million yuan, up 127 million yuan year-on-year; short-term loans increased by 1,594 million yuan [5]. - Corporate loans: 44,500 million yuan, down 3,300 million yuan year-on-year; short-term loans increased by 3,100 million yuan [5]. - Total new social financing: 72,200 million yuan, up 1,662 million yuan year-on-year [5]. Deposit Trends - New RMB deposits: 80,900 million yuan, up 37,700 million yuan year-on-year; household deposits decreased by 33,900 million yuan [5]. - Corporate deposits increased by 28,160 million yuan year-on-year [5]. Monetary Supply Growth - M1 growth rate: 4.9%, ending a three-month decline; M2 growth rate: 9.0%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [4].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor, with a target price raised to HKD 120, indicating a potential upside of 27.5% from the closing price of HKD 94.15 [1] - The revenue for Q4 2025 reached USD 659.9 million, a 3.9% increase quarter-over-quarter, aligning closely with previous guidance [1] - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 13.0%, which is the median of the prior guidance range of 12-14%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] Production Capacity and Financial Projections - Huahong's ninth factory is accelerating production, with an expected increase of 42 kwpm in 12-inch equivalent capacity in 2025, potentially reaching a total capacity of 83 kwpm by the end of 2026 [2] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected at USD 1.81 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 34%, with forecasts of USD 1.62 billion and USD 2.40 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted to USD 2.843 billion and USD 3.349 billion, respectively, with gross margin estimates of 14.2% and 16.2% for the same years [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,081.91, reflecting a 1.41% increase over the past five days and a 5.66% increase year-to-date [5] - Key global indices showed varied performance, with the Dow Jones down 1.66% and the S&P 500 down 1.04% [3] - Commodity prices have seen significant movements, with Brent crude oil rising by 7.36% over the past three months and gold futures increasing by 19.95% [3]

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 科技 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 2 月 12 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 70.00 | 港元 91.00↓ | +30.0% | | | 中芯国际 (981 HK) | | | | | | 存储器涨价对需求影响或相对可控；维持买入 王大卫, PhD, CFA Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1867 童钰枫 Carrie.Tong@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1804 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万美元) | 8,030 | 9,327 | 10,685 | 12,357 | 14,060 | | 同比增长 (%) | 27.0 | 16.2 | 14.6 | 15.6 | 13.8 | | 净利润 (百万美元) | 493 | 68 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the battery industry, including CATL (宁德时代), EVE Energy (亿纬锂能), Guoxuan High-Tech (国轩高科), and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [3][4]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the installed capacity of power batteries in China experienced a seasonal decline, with a total of 42.0 GWh, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year increase but a 57.2% month-on-month decrease due to the Spring Festival [4]. - Exports of batteries remained robust, with a total export of 24.1 GWh in January, marking a 38.3% year-on-year increase, although it was down 26.0% month-on-month [4]. - The global power battery market is expected to continue its high growth trajectory in 2025, with a projected increase of 31.7% to 1,187 GWh, and Chinese manufacturers are expected to gain market share [4]. - The performance of leading companies in the lithium battery supply chain is showing signs of recovery, with significant profit increases forecasted for several key players [4]. Summary by Sections Installed Capacity and Exports - In January 2026, the installed capacity of power batteries was 42.0 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 8.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 57.2% [4]. - The export volume for batteries was 24.1 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 38.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 26.0% [4]. Market Trends - The global power battery market is projected to grow by 31.7% in 2025, reaching 1,187 GWh, with Chinese manufacturers increasing their market share [4]. - CATL and BYD's global market shares are expected to rise to 30% and 7.9%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0 and 3.8 percentage points [4]. Company Performance - Key companies in the lithium battery sector are expected to report significant profit increases, with Guoxuan High-Tech forecasting a net profit growth of 107% to 149% [4]. - The overall performance of the lithium battery supply chain is entering a recovery phase, with leading companies showing early signs of performance elasticity [4].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 消费 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 2 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 7.83 | 港元 8.90↓ | +13.7% | | | 百威亚太 (1876 HK) | | | | | | 中国市场仍待修复，但股息率吸引；小幅下调目标价，维持买入 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万美元) | 6,246 | 5,764 | 6,070 | 6,277 | 6,465 | | 同比增长 (%) | -8.9 | -7.7 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | | 净利润 (百万美元) | 726 | 489 | 679 | 731 | 772 | | 每股盈利 (美元) | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.06 | | 同比增长 (%) | -14.7 | -32.8 | 38 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading" indicating expected performance above the benchmark index over the next 12 months [3]. Core Insights - Recent performance shows that US and Hong Kong tech stocks underperformed the market, while A-share tech stocks outperformed. The MSCI Information Technology Index slightly declined by 0.2%, lagging behind the MSCI Global Index which rose by 1.8% [3]. - AI capital expenditures from cloud service providers are expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 65% year-on-year to reach $619.4 billion in 2026, surpassing previous expectations of 33% growth [3][39]. - TSMC reported a 37% year-on-year revenue growth in January 2026, indicating a strong demand for AI infrastructure and a robust capital expenditure guidance of $52-56 billion for 2026 [3][25]. - The semiconductor manufacturing equipment imports in December 2025 decreased by 3% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing, suggesting a stable demand for domestic semiconductor equipment [3][34]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the period from January 10 to February 9, 2026, the software sector saw a significant decline of 15.8%, while hardware and semiconductor stocks performed better [3]. - The A-share Wind Information Technology Index increased by 0.6%, contrasting with the 0.8% decline in the CSI 300 Index [3]. Semiconductor Market - The average spot price for DDR5 (16Gb) has slightly decreased to $33.61, while the contract price for DDR4 (8Gb) rose to $13.00 in January 2026 [3]. - NAND prices have stabilized after a significant increase over the previous months, with the average price for 1Tb QLC remaining flat in February 2026 [3][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investors focus on AI infrastructure and domestic substitution opportunities, while also being cautious of high valuations that may increase market volatility [3]. - Recommended stocks include Nvidia (NVDA US), Broadcom (AVGO US), and TSMC (TSM US), all rated as "Buy" with reasonable valuations [3][40].

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent national procurement has been stable, with limited disruptions, and institutions are increasing their positions in innovative companies, maintaining a positive outlook on undervalued innovative targets [1][4] - The overall market sentiment has improved, driven by significant business development transactions, and the pharmaceutical sector is expected to continue its steady growth in 2026, despite potential short-term volatility [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.3% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 5.0%, ranking second among 12 industry indices [4][6] - Sub-sectors such as biopharmaceuticals and CXO both saw a growth of 7.4% [6] Institutional Holdings - Since Q4 2025, the proportion of domestic capital holding pharmaceutical stocks through Hong Kong Stock Connect has slightly decreased, while foreign capital holdings have increased [32] - As of February 10, 2026, domestic holdings were at 22.2%, down 0.2 percentage points, while foreign holdings rose to 39.7%, up 0.9 percentage points [32] Sales Performance - In 2025, China's pharmaceutical market sales decreased by 1% year-on-year, with public hospitals accounting for the largest market share at 10,977 billion RMB, down 2.1% [5] - Retail pharmacy sales reached 5,878 billion RMB, growing by 2.4%, with online pharmacies seeing a significant increase of 13.6% [5] National Procurement - The recent national procurement round had a high selection rate of 93%, with 1,020 products from 1,091 participating companies expected to be implemented by the end of March 2026 [5] - The procurement process has seen increased participation and a diverse range of selected products, ensuring stability in clinical demand [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs, particularly companies like Sanofi and Hengrui Medicine, which have rich catalysts and clear long-term growth logic [4] - It also suggests looking into CXO companies benefiting from high downstream demand and improving financing conditions, such as WuXi AppTec [4]