GEELY AUTO(00175) 东吴证券·2024-07-03 06:31Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Geely Auto aims for a group sales target of 2 million units in 2024, with multiple brands showing continuous growth [1] - Geely Auto's June wholesale sales reached 166,085 units, up 20.44% YoY and 3.38% MoM [3] - The company's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in June were 65,959 units, up 71.00% YoY and 12.42% MoM, with a NEV penetration rate of 40% [3] - Geely Auto's export sales in June were 35,347 units, up 56.22% YoY, accounting for 21.28% of total group sales [3] - The company's brand matrix is well-developed, with significant achievements in both domestic and overseas markets [4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 213.465 billion in 2024E to RMB 300.070 billion in 2026E, with YoY growth rates of 19%, 21%, and 16% respectively [2][4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 7.929 billion in 2024E to RMB 13.816 billion in 2026E, with YoY growth rates of 49%, 45%, and 21% respectively [2][4] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.79 in 2024E to RMB 1.37 in 2026E, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10x, 7x, and 6x [2][4] Market and Financial Data - Closing price: HKD 8.48 [5] - 52-week low/high: HKD 7.24/HKD 11.64 [5] - Price-to-book ratio: 1.08x [5] - Market capitalization: HKD 85.337 billion [5] - Total shares outstanding: 10,063.38 million [6] - Net asset per share: RMB 7.88 [6] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 53.90% [6] Brand Performance - Geely brand sales in June were 121,540 units, up 13.92% YoY and 1.06% MoM, with Galaxy sales at 15,975 units, up 12.56% MoM [3] - Zeekr brand sales in June were 20,106 units, up 89.32% YoY and 8.00% MoM [3] - Lynk & Co brand sales in June were 24,439 units, up 49.25% YoY and 12.22% MoM [3] Overseas Market Strategy - Geely's overseas market strategy has shown significant results, with the Emgrand model selling in 17 countries and cumulative sales exceeding 3.86 million units [4] - The company's export sales accounted for 21.28% of total group sales in June, with a YoY increase of 56.22% [3] Product Matrix and New Launches - Geely's domestic product matrix covers the 100,000-300,000 RMB price range, with models like the Lynk & Co 07 EM-P and Lynk & Co Z10 accelerating the brand's electrification transformation [4] - New launches include the Xingrui Longteng Edition, priced at RMB 99,700, and the new Boyue, priced between RMB 92,800 and RMB 118,800 [4]