环保行业深度报告：欧盟碳关税临近，重塑国际贸易竞争力

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the environmental industry, particularly focusing on the implications of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) [4]. Core Insights - The establishment of the CBAM aims to mitigate the competitive disadvantage faced by EU industries due to rising carbon prices, ensuring a balanced reduction pressure between domestic and foreign producers [4][16]. - The CBAM will be fully operational by 2026, following a two-year transition period where importers will report carbon emissions without incurring tariffs [4][28]. - The mechanism will cover six major sectors, including steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, hydrogen, and electricity, with plans to expand to all products in the EU carbon market by 2030 [4][21]. Summary by Sections EU Carbon Tariff Overview - The CBAM is designed to address the increasing pressure for emissions reduction within the EU and to prevent carbon leakage [16]. - The legislative process for CBAM was completed in 2022, with pilot implementation starting in 2023 [18]. Coverage and Implementation Timeline - The CBAM will cover six key industries, with a focus on both direct and some indirect emissions [21]. - The transition period from October 2023 to the end of 2025 will allow importers to report emissions without paying tariffs, with full implementation starting in 2026 [28]. Impact on Chinese Exports - The overall trade impact of CBAM on Chinese exports to the EU is limited, with affected exports accounting for approximately 3.2% of total exports [4]. - In 2022, China exported €15.1 billion in steel and €4.5 billion in aluminum to the EU, indicating a relatively small exposure to the CBAM [4]. Sector-Specific Analysis - In the steel sector, the CBAM is expected to increase export prices by approximately 378 CNY per ton, leading to a projected market for energy-saving equipment of about 6.725 billion CNY [5]. - For the aluminum sector, the direct impact of CBAM is minimal, with potential tariffs estimated at 476.28 CNY per ton, and a market for energy-saving equipment projected at around 2.6 billion CNY [5]. Global Trends in Carbon Tariffs - Other developed countries, including the US, Canada, and Japan, are also advancing their carbon tariff legislation, reflecting a global trend towards carbon neutrality [5].