2024年中宏观展望：固本培元，如日之升

Economic Performance - GDP growth in Q1 2024 reached 5.3%, slightly up from 5.2% in the previous year, exceeding market expectations[52] - Industrial production showed strong performance with an industrial value-added growth rate of 6.2% from January to May 2024[52] - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.6% in the same period, significantly higher than the previous year's levels, contributing 57.3% to fixed asset investment growth[52] Export Trends - Export growth has exceeded expectations, supported by a recovery in global demand as major economies begin to lower interest rates[55] - In April 2024, total exports reached $292.4 billion, and in May, they increased to $302.3 billion, indicating a recovery compared to the same period in previous years[42] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment totaled 18.8 trillion yuan from January to May 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%[52] - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year due to increased fiscal support, despite a current slowdown[52] Fiscal Policy - Central government expenditure growth was robust at 10.2% from January to May 2024, while local government expenditure growth lagged at 2.4%[10] - The issuance of special bonds is anticipated to accelerate, providing significant support for fiscal expansion in the latter half of the year[10] Credit and Monetary Policy - Credit growth is weakening, with a decline in the effectiveness of traditional lending practices, leading to a shift towards fiscal financing as the main driver of credit expansion[36] - M1 and M2 growth rates are both declining, indicating lower liquidity in the economy[36]