电力行业深度报告系列一：成长性+稳健性兼备，电力改革助推行业优势持续

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power industry, highlighting its growth potential and defensive characteristics [3][54] Core Views - The power industry exhibits both growth and defensive attributes, driven by increasing electricity demand, stable supply, and ongoing power sector reforms [3][54] - Electricity demand is expected to grow steadily, with a projected annual increase of 6.85% in 2024, driven by terminal electrification and industrial upgrades [3][9] - The supply side is dominated by state-owned enterprises, with a stable competitive landscape and a rapid increase in the proportion of new energy sources [3][27] Demand Side Analysis - Electricity demand shows resilience to economic fluctuations, with the electricity elasticity coefficient rising to 2.35 in Q1 2024 [3][9] - Terminal electrification, industrial upgrades, and extreme weather conditions are key drivers of electricity demand growth [3][12] - The third industry, particularly sectors like wholesale, retail, and accommodation, has seen significant growth in electricity consumption, with a 12.2% increase in 2023 [13][14] - Industrial electrification is expected to reach 28.2%-30.6% by 2025, further boosting electricity demand [12] Supply Side Analysis - The power supply is steadily increasing, with new energy sources like wind and solar rapidly expanding their share in the total installed capacity [27][32] - In 2023, new solar installations reached 216.02GW, accounting for 58.53% of the total new installations, while wind power accounted for 21.52% [32] - State-owned enterprises dominate the power supply landscape, with a stable competitive structure and high barriers to entry [27][29] - The total installed capacity is expected to grow, with projections of 102151.81 billion kWh in 2024, a 14.66% increase from the previous year [3][36] Power Market and Policy Reforms - Power market reforms are accelerating, with the introduction of new rules and mechanisms to improve the efficiency and flexibility of the power system [45][46] - The power market has formed four trading types: medium and long-term trading, spot trading, auxiliary trading, and capacity trading, with green certificate trading also being introduced [3][48] - The reform aims to enhance the profitability of new energy sources and improve the valuation system of the power industry [48] Valuation and Dividend Policy - The power industry's valuation remains attractive, with high dividend payouts providing defensive advantages [51] - In 2023, the average dividend payout ratios for thermal, hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar power were 37.54%, 202.67%, 44.71%, 26.44%, and 28.39%, respectively, all higher than the CSI 300 average of 36.45% [3][51] - Policy-driven initiatives, such as state-owned enterprise valuation management, are expected to further enhance the industry's valuation [53] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in thermal, hydro, nuclear, and green power sectors, such as Huadian Power, Huaneng Power, China Yangtze Power, and China General Nuclear Power [55] - These companies are expected to benefit from the ongoing power reforms, increasing electricity demand, and favorable policy environment [54][55]