Guotai Junan Securities·2024-07-03 23:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for Vanke A (000002) is maintained at "Buy" [3][8]. Core Views - The new housing market is operating at a low level, with the company adopting a price-for-volume strategy as a norm. The intensity of land investment has significantly decreased to a low level [3][8]. - The company achieved a cumulative contracted sales area of 9.4 million square meters in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 27.6%, with a contracted sales amount of 127.3 billion yuan, down 37.6% year-on-year [8]. - The average selling price of the company's properties dropped from 15,510 yuan per square meter at the beginning of the year to 13,553 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 12.6% quarter-on-quarter and 13.8% year-on-year [8]. - The company has continued to reduce inventory, with land acquisition in the first half of 2024 totaling 610,000 square meters, a year-on-year decline of 77%, and the total land acquisition amount of 2.9 billion yuan, down 94% year-on-year [8]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected to be 465.739 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.6% from 2022. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 12.163 billion yuan, down 46.4% year-on-year [8][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.74 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.65 yuan, respectively [8]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to be 0.53X for 2024, with a target price maintained at 11.53 yuan [8].