Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, highlighting its potential for profit growth and stable dividend value [3][5][7]. Core Insights - Shenzhen International is developing a comprehensive logistics model, focusing on key economic regions and maintaining a stable dividend policy. The company has a diversified business structure, with significant contributions from toll roads, environmental protection, and modern logistics [3][4][19]. - The logistics business is expected to provide performance elasticity through core warehousing assets and transformation opportunities, with ongoing projects anticipated to enhance revenue [3][4][21]. - The toll road and environmental protection sectors are stable, with the company benefiting from its stake in Shenzhen Expressway, which operates multiple toll roads in the region [4][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Comprehensive Logistics Service Platform - The company has seen revenue growth from HKD 10.1 billion to HKD 20.5 billion from 2017 to 2023, with a CAGR of 12.5%. The core business segments include toll roads and environmental protection, contributing approximately 50% of total revenue [14][18]. 2. Full-Chain Logistics Model Layout - The company is expanding its logistics assets in economically developed areas through self-construction and acquisitions. The logistics network includes various transport modes, enhancing its competitive edge [19][21]. 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are HKD 30.8 billion, HKD 40.2 billion, and HKD 42.5 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 5.0, 3.8, and 3.6. The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 50%, leading to a projected dividend of approximately HKD 15.4 billion in 2024 [5][7][32].
深圳国际：转型升级释放盈利弹性，高股息价值突显