全球新能源车市2024年中展望
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2024-07-04 05:55

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The global new energy vehicle (NEV) market is projected to reach sales of 1,546 million units in 2024, with a growth trajectory continuing through 2026, reaching 2,024 million units [6][10]. - The Chinese NEV market is expected to achieve a wholesale sales volume of 1,050 million units in 2024, with a penetration rate of approximately 40% [20][24]. - The report indicates that the industry is entering a phase of clearing after a period of rapid growth, with increasing attention on overcapacity and policy interventions expected to stabilize profitability [17]. Summary by Sections Global NEV Market Forecast - Global NEV sales are forecasted at 1,546 million units in 2024, 1,772 million in 2025, and 2,024 million in 2026 [6]. - The global market growth rate is expected to decline from 33.4% in 2023 to 14.2% by 2026 [6]. Chinese NEV Market Analysis - The Chinese NEV market is projected to reach 1,100 million units in 2024, with a significant increase in both passenger and commercial vehicle segments [15]. - The penetration rate for NEVs in China is expected to rise to 40% in 2024, up from 37.6% in early 2024 [20][24]. Battery Demand Forecast - Global demand for power batteries is expected to reach 1.2 TWh in 2024, increasing to 1.8 TWh by 2026 [8]. - The report highlights a significant growth in battery production, with a forecasted production of 1,521 GWh in 2026 [12]. Company Performance Insights - BYD is projected to achieve sales of 360 million units in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 20% [38]. - Tesla's sales in China are expected to decline to 80 million units in 2024, a decrease of 16% compared to the previous year [43][45]. - The report notes that Aion's sales are expected to reach 40 million units in 2024, a decrease of 17% [53]. Market Trends - The report indicates a shift towards plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), with a notable increase in their market share compared to pure electric vehicles [34]. - The first five months of 2024 saw a 30% increase in wholesale sales of NEVs in China, indicating strong market demand [20].