仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | | | | | 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | 日 度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 | 月庚涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 9 | | BB | 18.50% | 17.43% | 航运 | 集运欧线 | 1115 | -2.11% | -2.11% | -11.58% | -16.73% | | 4% | 10.67% | 11.13% | | 黄金 | 866.52 | 1.22% | 1.22% | 10.05% | 12.63% | | 18 | 23.35% | 27.04% | 贵金属 | 白银 | 6860 I | 2.89% | 2.89% | 16 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/09/30 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: NDRC will implement macroeconomic policies in a timely manner. Futures Pri ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the National Day holiday approaching, it is advisable for long - position holders to reduce positions to control risks. In the short - to - medium term, weak US dollar and supply disruptions support metal prices, while weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support basic metal prices. The report maintains the view of buying copper, aluminum, and tin on dips but suggests reducing long positions or taking profits due to the approaching holiday [1]. - Copper: The reduction in Indonesian copper mine production has a significant impact, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Aluminum oxide: The fundamentals remain weak, and the upside of aluminum oxide prices is under pressure. Aluminum: Inventories have decreased, and aluminum prices will oscillate. Aluminum alloy: Cost support remains, and the market will oscillate. Zinc: The decline in ferrous product prices causes zinc prices to oscillate weakly. Lead: Pre - holiday stocking has weakened, and lead prices are under pressure. Nickel: LME nickel inventories continue to increase, and nickel prices will oscillate widely. Stainless steel: The slight decline in ferronickel prices leads to a correction in the stainless - steel market. Tin: Supply disruptions in Indonesia reappear, and tin prices will oscillate [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 Copper - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in Indonesian copper mine production has a significant impact, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly. - **Analysis**: Grasberg mine in Indonesia may see a 35% drop in 2026 production. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September 2025. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 tons month - on - month and increased by 15.59% year - on - year. As of September 29, copper inventories increased by 0.82 tons to 14.83 tons. After the release of "770 - document", there was a large - scale shutdown and production reduction in the recycled copper market [7][8]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut supports copper prices. The supply of copper mines is disrupted, and the cost of scrap copper recycling has increased, leading to expected production cuts in electrolytic copper. Terminal demand is in the peak season, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. If inventories continue to decline, copper prices may remain strong [9]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and with increased supply disruptions and a low - level US dollar index, copper is expected to oscillate strongly [9]. Aluminum Oxide - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the upside of aluminum oxide prices is under pressure. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the prices of aluminum oxide in various regions declined. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10,000 tons of aluminum oxide, with the winning bid price down 10 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. Aluminum oxide warehouse receipts increased by 10,548 tons to 159,759 tons [10][11]. - **Logic**: Macro - sentiment affects the market. The operating capacity remains high, and the strong inventory - accumulation trend continues. The fundamentals are weak, but the decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter is limited, which may restrict the downside. Potential production - cut expectations and Guinea - related disruptions will affect prices [11]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum oxide is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [11]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventories have decreased, and aluminum prices will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream consumption - area electrolytic aluminum inventories decreased by 2.5 tons compared to last Thursday and 4.6 tons compared to last Monday. Aluminum rod inventories also decreased. The State Council's eight - department document promotes the stable growth of the non - ferrous industry [11][12]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut makes the US dollar weak. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches. Pre - holiday stocking drives inventory reduction, and the spot is at a discount. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, consumption and inventory - reduction sustainability need to be observed. In the medium term, with limited supply growth and resilient demand, the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise [12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support remains, and the market will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports. In August 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy decreased by 16.7% year - on - year [13]. - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and cost reduction space is limited. Supply - side production is increasing, and demand is marginally improving. Inventories are accumulating, and prices are expected to oscillate. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage. In the medium term, supply and demand are weak, but raw - material disruptions are possible, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The decline in ferrous product prices causes zinc prices to oscillate weakly. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a discount to the main contract. As of September 29, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventories decreased by 0.90 tons. CZSPT set the import zinc concentrate processing fee for the end of Q4 2025 at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton [15][16]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is slightly negative. Zinc ore supply is loosening, and smelters' profitability is good. Domestic consumption is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand is average. Fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation makes the non - ferrous sector strong, and zinc prices may oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the long term [16]. - **Outlook**: Zinc ingot production will remain high in September, and inventories may accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Pre - holiday stocking has weakened, and lead prices are under pressure. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM 1 lead ingot decreased by 125 yuan/ton. Social inventories of lead ingots decreased by 0.43 tons. After pre - holiday stocking, there may be new low - price stocking intentions, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation after the holiday [17]. - **Logic**: Spot premiums are narrowing, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is decreasing. The cost of recycled lead smelting is rising, and production is increasing. Demand is in the transition period, and the lead - acid battery industry's operating rate is high. - **Outlook**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the US dollar rebounded slightly. Pre - holiday battery factory stocking is almost over, and demand may decline. Supply may increase, and costs are rising slightly. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [21]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: LME nickel inventories continue to increase, and nickel prices will oscillate widely. - **Analysis**: On September 29, LME nickel inventories increased by 1188 tons to 231,312 tons. High - nickel pig iron prices are under pressure. A battery recycling company in Germany will build a large - scale lithium - battery recycling plant [21][22]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Nickel salt prices are slightly weakening, and inventories are accumulating. Short - term trading is recommended, and the performance of the ore end and macro - sentiment should be observed [23]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the non - ferrous sector is strong, but LME nickel inventories are increasing significantly. Nickel prices may strengthen in the short term, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended in the long term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The slight decline in ferronickel prices leads to a correction in the stainless - steel market. - **Analysis**: As of September 29, stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 357 tons. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.5 yuan/nickel point [25]. - **Logic**: Ferronickel and ferrochrome prices are stable. Stainless - steel production increased in August. Social inventories increased slightly, and warehouse receipts decreased. The structural over - supply pressure has eased. - **Outlook**: There is a risk of increased production cuts by steel mills. The fundamentals suppress prices. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and inventory and cost changes. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions in Indonesia reappear, and tin prices will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, LME tin warehouse receipts decreased by 105 tons to 2670 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased by 127 tons to 5950 tons. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingot decreased by 2300 yuan/ton [25]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is the core concern. The resumption of production in Wabang's Manxiang mining area is slow, and African tin production is unstable. Tin concentrate processing fees are low, and the operating rate of refined tin is low. Supply is tight, but terminal demand is weakening in the second half of the year, and inventory reduction is difficult in Q4. - **Outlook**: With tight supply at the mine end, tin prices have bottom support and are expected to oscillate [26]. 3.2行情监测 Not provided in the content 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities was 2235.10, down 0.13%; the commodity 20 index was 2510.22, down 0.08%; the industrial products index was 2238.46, down 0.50%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2406.68, with a daily decline of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 1.43%, a one - month increase of 0.89%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.26% [152][154].

中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-30 股市偏积极，债市偏谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指期货：整体情绪偏积极 股指期权：情绪偏强，但期权节前仍建议买权防御 国债期货：债市震荡偏谨慎 股指期货方面，整体情绪偏积极。周一权益市场情绪整体偏积极，新 能源及保险券商异动，市场量能略收缩，节前预计以成长局部行情为主。 值得注意的是，券商股昨日异动，或隐含资金对于节后相对积极的看法。 我们认为节后行情能够持续的原因如下，其一，外部扰动有限，资金对于 美联储四季度降息计价偏积极，弱美元环境利于全球资本市场走势，其 二，十五五规划临近，预计科技及反内卷成为关键词，这或诱发资金提前 布局，政策的看涨期权仍在，其三，9月盘面虽有波折，但整体呈现强韧 性，这有利于吸引增量资金进入股市。故操作层面，节前半仓过节应对不 确定性，节后仍建议积极参与成长及反内卷博弈行情。 ⾦融衍⽣品团队 研究员: 康遵禹 从业资格号:F03090802 投资咨询号:Z0016853 股指期权方面，情绪偏强，但期权节前仍建议买权防御。昨日权益市 场震荡偏强，沪指单日涨幅0.90%。期权方面，各个品种市场成交额提 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-30 节前补库暂告段落，节后政策仍有预期 昨⽇⽇盘⿊⾊建材板块整体震荡回调，⼀⽅⾯，临近⻓假，前期交易 补库需求的资⾦趋于离场；另⼀⽅⾯，焦化限产未被证实，则使得市 场"反内卷"情绪降温。夜盘时段期价震荡为主。虽然补库逻辑趋于 结束，但考虑到10⽉份重磅会议召开，有望再度增加市场信⼼，因 此预计板块品种价格下⽅空间有限。 昨日日盘黑色建材板块整体震荡回调，一方面，临近长假，前期交易 补库需求的资金趋于离场；另一方面，焦化限产未被证实，则使得市 场"反内卷"情绪降温。夜盘时段期价震荡为主。虽然补库逻辑趋于 结束，但考虑到10月份重磅会议召开，有望再度增加市场信心，因此 预计板块品种价格下方空间有限。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿需求高位支撑，海外矿山发运平稳，到港节奏 则收到台风扰动，基本面仍有支撑，但考虑到节前补库需求暂告段落 以及建材旺季需求有待进一步验证，因此限制铁矿上方空间，预计短 期价格震荡。废钢供需双增，但钢企补库接近尾声，且成材价格承压 导致电炉利润收缩，预计短期价格跟随成材震荡为主。 2、碳元素方面，钢厂补库 ...

中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-09-30 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 OPEC+可能持续增产拖累油价，⼄⼆醇 港⼝库存五年最低将⾛正套 原油：地缘扰动偏多，关注假期风险 沥青：沥青跟随原油震荡，继续压缩利润 高硫燃油：地缘扰动驱动燃油期价震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油跟随原油震荡 甲醇：内地烯烃外采延续，甲醇期价震荡 尿素：节前备货基本结束，供需宽松下期价承压 乙二醇：港口库存再创新低，近强远弱格局延续 PX：成本支撑，然供需预期转弱，加工费承压 PTA：假期临近，商谈清淡 短纤：下游节前补货多已完备 瓶片：驱动有限，跟随上游波动 PP：节前多空均偏谨慎，PP关注前低支撑力度 丙烯：跟随PP波动，PL短期震荡 塑料：节前多空谨慎，塑料震荡 纯苯：节前观望情绪明显，纯苯震荡偏弱 苯乙烯：节前观望&港口累库，苯乙烯震荡偏弱 PVC：市场情绪降温，PVC震荡运行 烧碱：强预期弱现实，盘面偏震荡 展望：能化仍以原油为锚延续震荡，节前反弹可轻仓试空，低库存品 能源化⼯组研究团队 研究员： 10月5日OPEC+将召开产量决议，当前彭博报道，OPEC+正在考虑在 11月继续增产，且增产幅度不低于1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillating" rating for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, indicating that the expected price fluctuations for these commodities are within plus or minus one standard deviation in the future 2 - 12 weeks [6][7][10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the repeated supply expectations, the prices of new energy metals will fluctuate widely. It is necessary to wait for the policy clarity at the end of September. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in an upward stage, and the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1] - For industrial silicon, the loosening of coal prices has led to a decline in its price. For polysilicon, the repeated policy expectations have caused its price to continue high - volatility. For lithium carbonate, as the long holiday and the point of long - short game approach, it is necessary to avoid price fluctuation risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of September 29, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory increased by 0.5% month - on - month. As of August 2025, the domestic monthly production of industrial silicon was 386,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. In August, the export volume of industrial silicon increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in August decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [6] - **Main Logic**: The repeated coal prices affect the cost support of industrial silicon, and the resumption progress of large northwest factories has slowed down, so the silicon price continues to oscillate. The supply has been rising from August to September, but the resumption process has slowed down recently. The demand has slightly improved, and the inventory has remained stable [6] - **Outlook**: Before the holiday, the loosening of coal prices led to a decline in silicon prices. Recently, the resumption rhythm of large factories has slowed down, and the industrial silicon price shows short - term oscillation. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the impact of the resumption rhythm of large northwest factories on supply [6] 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: As of a certain time, the N - type polysilicon re - feeding material transaction price was in the range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased. In August, the export and import volumes of polysilicon decreased. From January to August 2025, the domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity increased year - on - year. Relevant policies on anti - involution and energy consumption standards were put forward [7] - **Main Logic**: The supply of polysilicon has recovered to over 130,000 tons in August and is expected to remain high in September. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will limit the supply. The demand for polysilicon may continue to weaken in the future. Overall, there is still pressure on the supply - demand situation, and the price fluctuation has increased [8][9] - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant boost to the polysilicon price. It is necessary to pay attention to the policy implementation. If the policy expectation fades, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [7] 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On September 29, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.43% compared with the previous day, and the total position increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. A new lithium project was put into production [9][10] - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand. There is a supply - demand gap, but the amplitude is less than expected. The supply has new investments, and there is uncertainty in supply. The apparent demand is strong, and the social inventory is decreasing, but the amplitude is less than expected. The warehouse receipts are gradually recovering, suppressing the price. It is recommended to close positions and wait and see [10] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the long - term surplus and supply recovery expectations suppress the price. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [10] 3.2行情监测 - The report only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate under this section, but no specific content is provided [12][18][29] 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all decreased, with decreases of 0.13%, 0.08%, and 0.50% respectively. The new energy commodity index decreased by 0.53% on that day, 0.22% in the past 5 days, 0.96% in the past month, and 3.50% since the beginning of the year [52][54]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-9-30 ⾦价再创新⾼，⻓假临近注意⻛险防控 金价突破3800美元/盎司，近期黄金高斜率上涨，长假临近注意风险 防控。 重点资讯： 1) 美国总统特朗普上周四公布了一系列新进口关税，包括从对专利 药品征收100%的关税，对重型卡车征收25%的关税。此举打破了近期 相对平静的贸易局面，引发了新的不确定性。 2) 中国央行货币政策委员会召开第三季度例会称，建议加强货币政 策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国内外经济金融形势和 金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏。 3) 俄罗斯上周日早些时候向基辅和乌克兰其他地区发射了数百个无 人机和导弹，造成至少四人死亡，数十人受伤，这是自俄乌冲突全面 爆发以来对乌克兰首都发动的最持久的袭击之一。 4) 为了在截止期限到来前通过立法以避免政府停摆，美国国会议员 即将与特朗普总统举行会谈，在此之前共和党领袖上周日试图将目前 面临的僵局归咎于民主党，并敦促后者同意一项短期法案以便争取时 间。 价格逻辑： 金价突破，创历史新高。伦敦金现货周一早盘突破3800美元/盎司， 再创纪录高位 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various agricultural and related commodity markets, providing short - and long - term outlooks and investment suggestions for each commodity. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some commodities expected to be weak, some to be in a range - bound state, and others with potential for short - term rebounds [1][6][8]. Summary by Commodity 1. Livestock - **Pig**: In the short term, the planned pig出栏量 in September increased by 4% month - on - month, and the completion rate was 64.6%. There is still significant pressure at the end of the month. In the medium term, the number of pigs for sale is expected to increase in Q4. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy of reducing 1 million sows is implemented, the supply pressure will ease in the second half of 2026. The outlook is weak - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage strategies [1][8]. 2. Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The outlook is that soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate, while rapeseed oil will oscillate with a stronger bias. The US soybean harvest is normal, but the good - quality rate is decreasing. The domestic soybean import volume will seasonally decline, and the soybean oil inventory will peak. The palm oil inventory accumulation in September may be limited, and the rapeseed oil inventory will decline. Attention should be paid to trade relations, supply in producing areas, and overseas biodiesel demand [6]. 3. Protein Meals - **Protein Meals**: The outlook is that both soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate. Internationally, the US crop harvest is progressing well, and Brazil's sowing has a record - fast start. Domestically, there is support from pre - holiday stocking, but the inventory pressure is large. The supply of soybean meal is expected to increase in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Attention should be paid to the impact of pig "anti - involution" on sentiment [6][7]. 4. Grains - **Corn/Starch**: New grain is gradually coming onto the market. In the short term, there is pressure from the concentrated listing of new grain, but there may be a small rebound before the holiday. In the long term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [7][8]. 5. Rubbers - **Natural Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are supportive, and the market is expected to maintain a range - bound state. The market has a strong spot, is de - stocking, and the basis is narrowing. However, there is an expectation of increased supply in Q4. Attention should be paid to raw material prices and domestic social inventory changes [10][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market will continue to oscillate within a range. There are many device overhauls expected from September to November, and the price is at a low level, so the bearish sentiment has cooled, but there is no continuous upward driving force [12]. 6. Fibers - **Cotton**: The medium - term outlook is weak - side oscillation. The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production in the 25/26 season will bring supply pressure. Before the holiday, the price fluctuation will narrow. After the holiday, as new cotton is listed, the downward driving force will increase. Attention should be paid to the seed cotton purchase price and trade negotiations [12]. 7. Sweeteners - **Sugar**: In the short term (around National Day), it will oscillate, and the decline may slow down with a potential for a rebound. In Q4, as new sugar is listed in the Northern Hemisphere, the supply pressure will increase, and the price is expected to be weak - side oscillating. Attention should be paid to production data in Brazil's central - southern region [13][14]. 8. Pulps and Papers - **Pulp**: The market is weak - side oscillating. The downstream paper production peak is coming to an end, and the supply is in an oversupply situation. Although there is support from the delivery price, there is no clear upward logic [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The market is weak - side oscillating. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is not strong, and there is no clear upward or downward driving force in the short term. The long - term outlook is weak [17]. 9. Logs - **Logs**: The market will oscillate around 800 before the holiday. The spot price is stable, the inventory is being de - stocked, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. However, the delivery situation has a negative impact on the market, and the selling hedging pressure is large [19][20].

中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 政府债发行追踪―2025年第39周 研究员: 程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 报告日期: 2025年9月29日 截至9/28, 新增专项债发行进度为83.2% 本周新增专项债发行1496亿，环比增加518亿 2025 近2年均值 2025 · - 2024 -- 2023 2022 - 2021 1.5 r 4500 r 4000 3000 0.5 2000 1000 - -0.5 L 第1周 第4周 第12周 第16周 第20周 第24周 第24周 第28周 第31周 第35周 第39周 第43周 第47周 第51周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 截至9/28, 9月新增专项债累计发行3971亿元 截至9/28, 9月新增一般债累计发行411亿元 2025 2024 -- 2023 - - 2022 - 2021 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 15000 F ...