2024年5月央行消费贷款数据点评：消费信贷连续少增，静待消费复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - In May 2024, the short-term consumer loans from financial institutions amounted to 99,120.24 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.6% and a decrease of 939.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year, marking five consecutive months of year-on-year decreases [2]. - The weak performance in short-term consumer loans is attributed to subdued consumer demand, which has not recovered as expected. Although the growth rate of social retail sales has improved, it still falls short of expectations, with optional consumption categories like jewelry and automobiles showing significant declines [2]. - The People's Bank of China has introduced several policies aimed at stimulating consumption, including lowering mortgage down payment ratios and interest rates, which are expected to boost demand in the real estate sector and related industries [2]. - The report suggests that under the current policy environment, there are potential investment opportunities in durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances, with specific stock recommendations including Qifu Technology and Yixin Group [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the ongoing weakness in consumer loan demand and the need for policy support to stimulate recovery in consumption [2]. Economic Indicators - In May 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,211 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, which is below the expected 4.5% [2]. - The unemployment rate in urban areas was reported at 5.0%, aligning with market expectations [2]. Policy Developments - Recent policy measures from the People's Bank of China and the State Council are aimed at enhancing consumer spending and supporting the real estate market, which could lead to a recovery in consumer demand [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies potential opportunities in the consumer finance sector, particularly in durable goods, and recommends specific stocks for investment [2][3].