建材行业周观点：中报高基数龙头预期平稳，两广水泥差异化错峰改善淡季预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term investment outlook for leading companies in the building materials sector, particularly in the consumption building materials segment, while highlighting the need for a cautious approach in the second-tier companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that leading companies in the consumption building materials sector are expected to maintain stable performance in Q2 despite high base effects, with mid-term dividend plans anticipated to catalyze market interest [2][4]. - The cement market in Guangxi is showing positive price signals that are expected to transmit to Guangdong, with a forecast that the off-season performance will be stronger than the peak season [7][8]. - The glass industry is facing challenges with increasing inventory levels leading to potential losses for some companies, while the photovoltaic glass segment is experiencing limited price declines due to tight production capacity policies [9][15]. Summary by Sections Consumption Building Materials - Leading companies like Oriental Yuhong and Beixin Building Materials are expected to show resilience in Q2, with profit growth forecasts of 15% for 2024, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term strategic positioning in the consumption building materials sector, with a focus on maintaining a low-risk profile while capitalizing on undervalued opportunities [2][3]. Cement - The report notes that the cement market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with price adjustments in various regions, particularly in Guangdong, where prices have increased by 20-25 yuan per ton [26][28]. - The differentiation in pricing strategies among leading companies is expected to stabilize the market and improve profitability during the off-season [7][8]. Glass - The float glass segment is facing significant inventory accumulation, with average prices dropping to 1658.99 yuan per ton, leading to a forecast of potential losses for some companies [9][11]. - The photovoltaic glass market is under pressure with limited price reduction potential due to stringent capacity policies, although profitability remains relatively stable for leading companies [15][16]. Fiberglass - The report highlights that structural product price increases are continuing, while direct yarn replenishment in the midstream is currently on hold [19][20]. - The electronic cloth segment is expected to see price increases due to improved supply dynamics and demand recovery [19][20]. Carbon Fiber - The carbon fiber market is experiencing weak stability in prices, with production and sales recovery not yet evident, indicating ongoing profitability challenges for the industry [22][23].