金属及金属新材料24年中期策略：百花齐放仍可期

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the basic metals sector is awaiting demand improvement, with potential for price elasticity to rise. Copper prices are expected to continue their upward trend supported by improving actual demand and tight supply conditions. The aluminum sector is also projected to benefit from strong cost support and improving global demand [2][42]. - In the steel sector, supply-demand improvements and cost reductions are anticipated to restore price and profit levels in the second half of 2024. The report suggests focusing on quality steel leaders [2][5]. - Precious metals are expected to benefit from anticipated interest rate cuts, with gold prices showing high elasticity for upward movement. The report highlights the importance of the strength of the US dollar in this context [2][5]. - Energy metals are entering a bottom price range, which may present rebound opportunities for the sector. The report notes that domestic demand remains resilient, while external tariff policies may suppress overseas demand [2][5]. Summary by Sections Basic Metals - Copper: Demand is improving, and supply remains tight, with expectations for prices to continue rising as actual demand strengthens and global inventory replenishment occurs [42]. - Aluminum: Global demand is improving, and strong cost support is expected to enhance price elasticity [2][5]. Steel - Supply: A slight decrease in crude steel production is expected in the second half of 2024 [5]. - Demand: Steel demand is projected to stabilize with slight increases in total volume [5]. - Costs: Steel costs are anticipated to fluctuate downwards [5]. - Price and Profit: Improvements in supply-demand dynamics and cost reductions are expected to restore price and profit levels [5]. Precious Metals - The report anticipates that the sector may experience a "Davis Double" effect due to expected interest rate cuts, with gold prices showing significant upward potential [2][5]. Energy Metals - Prices are entering a bottom range, which may lead to rebound opportunities. The report highlights that domestic demand is resilient, while external factors may impact overseas demand [2][5]. Other Minor Metals - Rare earths are expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, while tungsten and molybdenum are poised for upward momentum [2][5].