基础化工行业2024年中期策略：底部蓄势，把握供需优化机会

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [5] Core Views - The chemical industry is at a cyclical inflection point, with frequent price increases in certain products due to supply constraints and demand uncertainties [2] - The transition from supply constraints to supply optimization is expected to drive long-term growth, particularly in sectors like titanium, phosphorus, and refrigerants [3] - Demand release inflection points are imminent, with sectors like pesticides and vitamins showing potential for price recovery [3] Supply Constraints to Supply Optimization - Upstream energy capital expenditure has declined, keeping global oil prices high [3] - Resource-intensive industries like titanium and phosphorus are facing supply-demand mismatches due to long expansion cycles [3] - Policy-driven supply controls in sectors like explosives and refrigerants are improving supply-demand dynamics [3] - Oligopolies in sectors like chrome chemicals and polyester filament are gaining pricing power [3] - New policies on equipment upgrades and energy efficiency are expected to drive further supply optimization [3] Demand Release Inflection Points - Most chemical product price spreads are at historical lows, with potential for improvement if demand marginally recovers [3] - Pesticides: Global demand remains strong due to stable agricultural commodity prices, with export demand recovering as overseas inventories deplete [3] - Vitamins: Prices are bottoming out due to low inventories and high costs, with potential for significant price increases as the pig cycle bottoms out [3] Key Investment Opportunities - Supply Optimization: Focus on resource sectors like oil & gas (e.g., PetroChina, CNOOC), minerals (e.g., titanium, phosphorus), and manufacturing sectors like explosives and refrigerants [3] - New Technologies & Trends: Synthetic biology, vacuum materials, lubricant additives, and domestic fashion trends like sun-protective clothing [3] - Demand Recovery: Pesticides (e.g., Rainbow Chemical, Guoguang Agrochemical) and vitamins (e.g., Zhejiang NHU) [3] Market Performance - The chemical sector underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a relative market performance of -29% as of May 2024 [6] Industry Data Highlights - Oil Prices: WTI crude at $80.49/barrel, Brent at $85.33/barrel, and Dubai at $84.59/barrel as of June 19, 2024 [19] - Mineral Prices: Fluorite at 3,773 CNY/ton (99th percentile since 2010), phosphate rock at 1,005 CNY/ton (89th percentile since 2008), and titanium concentrate at 2,073 CNY/ton (72nd percentile since 2010) [19] - Chemical Price Index: The CCPI index rose by 5% in June 2024, recovering from a low of -1% in April 2024 [20] - PPI Growth: The PPI for chemical raw materials and products manufacturing increased, indicating a recovery in industrial prices [20]