大健云仓：公司研究报告

Investment Rating - Outperform rating for GigaCloud Technology (GCT) [1] Core Views - GCT is a leading B2B e-commerce platform specializing in cross-border transactions of large goods, leveraging its innovative "supply chain front-loading" model and global warehousing and logistics network [3] - The global B2B e-commerce market, particularly for large parcels, has significant growth potential, with the US B2B market size estimated at $14.8 trillion and e-commerce penetration at only 9% [3] - GCT's business focus is shifting towards 3P (third-party) services, with service revenue growing at a CAGR of 49.07% from 2020 to 2023, outpacing product revenue growth [3] - The company's global warehousing and logistics network, combined with AI-driven operational capabilities, forms a strong competitive moat [4] Business Overview - GCT operates a global B2B e-commerce platform connecting manufacturers (primarily in Asia) with distributors (mainly in the US, Asia, and Europe), with total GMV reaching $999 million in 2023 [3][22] - The company has 21 large warehouses worldwide, with over 4 million square feet of storage space and annual container throughput exceeding 10,000 units [4] - GCT's AI software optimizes inventory management and logistics, enabling delivery within one week of order placement at prices lower than FedEx and UPS [4] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from $122 million in 2019 to $704 million in 2023, a CAGR of 54.88%, with adjusted EBITDA increasing from $5 million to $118 million over the same period [28][29] - Net income is projected to grow from $94.11 million in 2023 to $364 million in 2025, representing a CAGR of 96.8% [5] - The company's gross margin and net margin have shown an upward trend, reaching 26.80% and 13.37% respectively in 2023 [30] Market Opportunity - The global furniture and home decor e-commerce market has grown from less than 10% of total retail sales in 2008 to over 20% in 2022, with a CAGR of 11.35% [11] - The US B2B e-commerce market is expected to grow from $1.3 trillion in 2020 to $2.2 trillion in 2025, representing a CAGR of 10.7% [14] - China's cross-border e-commerce market expanded from 2.1 trillion yuan in 2012 to 15.7 trillion yuan in 2022, with exports accounting for approximately 80% of the total [15] Strategic Initiatives - GCT is focusing on expanding its 3P platform services, with platform revenue growing from $182 million in 2020 to $499 million in 2023, a CAGR of 39.91% [3] - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including Noble House in October 2023, which added 2.3 million square feet of warehouse space, and Wondersign in November 2023, enhancing its digital catalog capabilities [28][39] - GCT's AI-driven platform optimizes inventory management, generates seller ratings and credit profiles, and enables dynamic pricing based on volume, delivery date, and fulfillment method [43] Valuation and Projections - The company is projected to achieve net income of $260 million in 2024 and $364 million in 2025, representing year-over-year growth of 175.9% and 40.1% respectively [50] - Based on comparable company analysis, GCT is valued at 15-18x 2024E PE, implying a fair value range of $33.83-$40.56 per share [50] - Revenue is expected to grow from $958 million in 2024E to $1.85 billion in 2026E, with service revenue projected to increase at a CAGR of 55% over the same period [51]