恩捷股份：2024H1业绩预告点评：Q2新增费用影响利润，业绩不及预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has released its H1 2024 earnings forecast, indicating that the performance is generally in line with expectations, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 260-360 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 75%-82% [3] - The Q2 2024 net profit is expected to be between 100-200 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 74%-87% and a quarter-on-quarter change of -37% to +26% [3] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to losses in the dry separator and aluminum-plastic film businesses, along with consulting fees impacting profits by over 100 million yuan [3] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Total revenue for 2022 was 12,591 million yuan, with a forecast of 13,935 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.72% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 4,000.46 million yuan, with a forecast of 903.89 million yuan for 2024, indicating a significant decline of 64.23% [2] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.92 yuan for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 33.45 [2] Performance Insights - Q2 2024 shipments are expected to increase by 20% quarter-on-quarter, with annual shipments projected to maintain over 30% growth, reaching approximately 6.5 billion square meters [3] - The company anticipates a stable operating profit per square meter in Q2 2024, with an expected decline in annual profit per square meter to over 0.1 yuan due to losses and consulting fees [3] - The company has a competitive advantage in overseas production capacity, with contributions expected from its Hungarian coating capacity starting in H2 2024 [3] Profitability and Investment Outlook - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised down to 900 million, 1.34 billion, and 2.31 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -64%, +48%, and +72% [3] - The corresponding P/E ratios for these years are projected to be 33, 23, and 13 [3] - Given the company's leading position in the separator industry, long-term profit growth is expected to recover, justifying the "Buy" rating [3]