有色金属，大宗金属周报：美国6月失业率超预期，金价重回上涨趋势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the gold price has returned to an upward trend due to dovish comments from Powell and better-than-expected U.S. unemployment data for June. The expectation for a rate cut in September has increased, and the long-term logic for copper remains unchanged. It suggests continued focus on precious metals, copper with low smelting self-sufficiency, and electrolytic aluminum with high alumina self-sufficiency. Additionally, it recommends attention to tungsten, manganese, tin, and other minor metals, as well as lagging varieties like nickel and magnesium [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.5, below expectations of 49.1. Powell's dovish remarks indicated significant progress on inflation, and if the labor market weakens unexpectedly, the Fed may act sooner [6]. - U.S. June ADP employment figures were 150,000, below the expected 160,000. Initial jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations at 238,000 [6]. 2. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.59%, while the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index rose by 2.61%, outperforming the Shanghai index by 3.20 percentage points. The top five performing stocks included Yulong Co., Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet [8][9]. 3. Valuation Changes - The Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index had a PE_TTM of 21.53, a change of 0.05 from the previous week. The PB_LF was 2.08, with a change of 0.01 [14][15]. 4. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 2.07% in London and 1.54% on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Silver prices rose by 4.12% in London and 4.57% on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [16][18]. 5. Copper - London copper prices rose by 3.56%, and Shanghai copper prices increased by 2.65%. Copper inventories in London rose by 6.38%, while Shanghai inventories increased by 0.66%. The smelting fee was $2.7 per ton, and the profit margin for smelting decreased by 2.14% [24]. 6. Aluminum - London aluminum prices increased by 0.73%, and Shanghai aluminum prices rose by 0.72%. London aluminum inventories fell by 2.65%, while Shanghai inventories increased by 3.90%. The profit margin for aluminum companies rose by 3.86% to 3,081 yuan per ton [30]. 7. Lead and Zinc - London lead prices rose by 1.22%, and Shanghai lead prices increased by 1.81%. London zinc prices rose by 1.24%, and Shanghai zinc prices increased by 1.35%. The smelting processing fee decreased by 6.98% to 2,000 yuan per ton [34].