2024年7月01日-7月07日交通运输行业周报：集运运价涨势分化，快递进入暑期淡季

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Positive" (Overweight) [2][52]. Core Insights - The shipping industry is expected to maintain a strong performance due to ongoing capacity losses from rerouting and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased container prices even in off-peak seasons [8]. - The oil tanker sector is anticipated to see sustained growth over the next three years due to limited new orders and aging fleets, benefiting from increased oil transport demand [8]. - The express delivery sector is experiencing a competitive environment with prices at historical lows, but the potential for recovery in sentiment and profitability exists, particularly for leading companies [8]. - The aviation sector is poised for recovery with increased international flights and a favorable supply-demand balance, particularly during peak travel seasons [8]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.59% while the transportation index decreased by 0.20%, indicating a relatively better performance in the transportation sector compared to the overall market [14]. - The express delivery sector saw a significant decline of 4.39%, while the shipping sector showed a slight increase of 0.16% [14][16]. Sub-Industry Data Tracking Express Logistics - In the first half of the year, express delivery volume reached 80 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 24.4% [5][6]. - The average ticket price in the express delivery sector is at a historical low, with limited downward space for prices [8]. Shipping - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) reported a 4.6% increase, indicating a mixed trend across different shipping routes [3]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 5.9%, reflecting a recovery in bulk shipping [3][43]. Aviation - Domestic flight ticket prices decreased by 12% year-on-year during the summer travel season, while international flights are recovering to pre-pandemic levels [7][8]. - The passenger transport volume in civil aviation reached 59 million in May, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [33]. Road and Rail - In May, road passenger volume increased by 158.3% year-on-year, while freight volume grew by 3.5% [29]. - Rail passenger volume also saw a year-on-year increase of 10.87% [29].