Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals (SH:688319) GF SECURITIES·2024-07-07 23:01Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 14.20 CNY per share [30] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.15, 0.20, and 0.25 CNY per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [29] - The company's fair value is estimated at 14.20 CNY per share using a risk-adjusted DCF valuation method [29] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 580 million CNY in 2024 to 740 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 11.1% [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 580 million CNY in 2024 to 740 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 11.1% [1] - EBITDA is projected to increase from 115 million CNY in 2024 to 182 million CNY in 2026 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 59 million CNY in 2024 to 102 million CNY in 2026 [1] - EPS is expected to grow from 0.15 CNY in 2024 to 0.25 CNY in 2026 [1] Product Pipeline and Market Potential - The tetanus vaccine market is expected to exceed 1.7 billion CNY by 2030, with the company holding a leading market share [3][47] - The company's AC-Hib combination vaccine is expected to reach a sales peak of 1 billion CNY [3] - The recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is in Phase III clinical trials and is expected to complete Phase III by 2025, with a potential market size of 1 billion CNY in China [3][64] - The company has 11 products in its R&D pipeline, including global innovative vaccines such as the recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine and the Helicobacter pylori vaccine [3] Competitive Landscape - The company holds a dominant position in the tetanus vaccine market, with a favorable competitive landscape [3][51] - The recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is globally leading in clinical progress, with no similar products approved worldwide [3][42] R&D and Innovation - The company has a differentiated R&D pipeline, with a focus on adult vaccines, hospital-acquired infection vaccines, and innovative vaccines [42] - The company has optimized the antigen selection, adjuvant use, and immunization schedule for the recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine, significantly improving the probability of success [69][70] Market Performance - The company's stock has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 37.47% over the past 6 months [30]