Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - Moutai's batch prices have stabilized, and the beverage sector shows strong resilience, with ongoing structural upgrades and anticipation of marginal catalysts [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sales quality and actual sales performance in the liquor sector, while expecting improvements and catalysts in mass-market products [1][4]. - The beer and beverage sectors are experiencing accelerated terminal sales, with a positive trend expected to emerge first [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - For liquor, the report suggests overweight positions in stable performers such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Kweichow Moutai. It also highlights undervalued stocks like Wuliangye, Laobai Ganjiu, Jianshe, Luzhou Laojiao, and Hong Kong's Zhenjiu Lidu [4][5]. - In the beer and beverage segment, recommended stocks include Qingdao Beer, Yanjing Beer, Dongpeng Beverage, and Bai Run Shares, with beneficiaries being Master Kong Holdings and Uni-President China [4]. - For mass-market products, the report suggests overweight positions in high-growth stocks like Three Squirrels, Jin Zai Food, and Yan Jin Pu Zi, as well as supply chain stocks such as Qianhe Flavor Industry and Zhongju High-tech [4]. Liquor Sector Analysis - Moutai's batch prices have shown a phase of stabilization, with recent fluctuations in prices around 2550 RMB for box Moutai and 2300 RMB for loose Moutai [5]. - The report notes that Moutai has been actively engaging in market and marketing meetings to boost confidence among distributors and investors, emphasizing the importance of distributor relationships [5]. - Despite short-term demand weakness, some quality liquor companies maintain good sales momentum, and price and inventory levels are relatively stable, suggesting potential for valuation stabilization [5]. Beer and Beverage Sector Analysis - The report anticipates a slight decline in Qingdao Beer sales in Q2 2024, with a small positive growth in price per ton [7]. - Dongpeng Beverage is rated as "Overweight" due to its strong fundamentals, particularly in energy drinks and electrolyte water, which are expected to drive long-term excess returns [7]. - For Master Kong and Uni-President, the beverage business remains robust, with potential price increases or structural upgrades in the instant noodle segment [7].
食品饮料行业周度更新:茅台批价企稳,饮料韧性强
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-07-07 23:31