农林牧渔行业深度分析：猪价与成本“剪刀差”扩大，看好养殖利润超预期

Investment Rating - The report rates the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry as "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry supply and demand continue to improve, with pig prices expected to rise in the third quarter. The breeding sow inventory has been declining for 16 consecutive months, with a cumulative decrease of 11.3% from January 2023 to April 2024, indicating a significant reduction in excess capacity [5][7] - The overall supply of pigs is projected to continue declining, reaching a low point in the current cycle, which is expected to drive pig prices upward [5][19] - The cost of raising pigs has decreased significantly due to falling feed prices and the gradual alleviation of seasonal disease impacts, leading to improved profit margins for breeding enterprises [5][39] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Supply and Demand Improvement - The breeding sow inventory is at its lowest level since 2021, with a total pig inventory of 408.5 million heads as of the end of Q1 2024, down 5.2% year-on-year [5][13] - The second quarter saw limited participation in secondary fattening, which has contributed to the upward pressure on pig prices [14][19] - Seasonal demand for pork is expected to rise in the third quarter, further supporting price increases [19][23] 2. Decrease in Industry Costs - Feed price changes typically take about two quarters to fully impact raising costs due to the biological growth cycle of pigs [24][39] - Since December 2023, feed raw material prices have dropped significantly, with corn and soybean meal prices down approximately 3.4% and 16.9% respectively compared to early 2024 [39][43] - The overall cost of raising pigs has entered a rapid decline phase, with the average cost significantly reduced [39][47] 3. Profit Margins Expected to Exceed Expectations - The widening gap between pig prices and costs is expected to lead to profits that exceed market expectations [5][39] - Sensitivity analysis indicates that as feed prices decrease, the average profit per pig can increase significantly, with potential profits rising from 180 CNY per head to 660 CNY per head as prices fluctuate [5][39] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the sector, such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, while also considering smaller firms like Tangrenshen and Tiankang Biological [5][39]