财富通每周策略

Market Overview - The market experienced a low-level consolidation with all three major indices closing down, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording a seven-day losing streak [15][50] - As of July 4, northbound capital saw a net outflow of 16.906 billion yuan over the past five trading days, with the Shanghai market experiencing a net outflow of 2.871 billion yuan and the Shenzhen market 14.035 billion yuan [15][50] - The recent strong performance of the US dollar has contributed to the continuous outflow of northbound capital, adding pressure to the market [15] Economic Indicators - The central bank has maintained a supportive monetary policy stance, with expectations of a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment in July [5][47] - The real estate market in first-tier cities is showing signs of recovery, with transaction volumes in June reaching a three-year high [16] - The upcoming consumption tax reform is anticipated to boost market sentiment, with potential changes including expanding the tax base and shifting tax collection responsibilities [16] Sector Performance - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as finance, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), electric power equipment, public utilities, and machinery equipment for potential investment opportunities [50] - In terms of capital flows, industries such as public utilities, national defense and military industry, transportation, oil and petrochemicals, and construction decoration saw net inflows, while pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, electric power equipment, electronics, and basic chemicals experienced net outflows [7][15] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has been oscillating below the 3000-point mark, with trading volumes in the two markets falling below 600 billion yuan for three consecutive trading days [50] - The report indicates that after a prolonged period of oscillation and correction, investor pessimism may have been fully released, suggesting that the current A-share market has a high cost-performance ratio and safety margin [50]