Topband(002139) Great Wall Securities·2024-07-08 03:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected PE ratios of 19x, 14x, and 11x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10] Core Views - The company achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and profit in H1 2024, driven by industry recovery and market share gains in key sectors [1] - The company's overseas expansion strategy is showing results, with overseas revenue accounting for over 50% of total revenue and expected to grow further [7] - AI terminal applications are expected to drive demand growth in the smart controller industry, benefiting the company's strong product capabilities [1] - The company's share buyback program demonstrates confidence in future growth and supports long-term sustainable development [22][23] Financial Performance - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 8,875 million in 2022 to RMB 15,642 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 19.8%-20.7% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 583 million in 2022 to RMB 1,198 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 28.7%-40.1% [6] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 20.1% in 2022 to 25.1% in 2026 [13] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 10.0% in 2022 to 13.3% in 2026 [6] Business Development - The company has successfully launched new products in the new energy sector, including charging piles, BMS, and PCS, contributing to incremental growth [1] - Overseas markets, particularly in Europe and America, have seen breakthroughs in energy storage business with major customers [7] - The company is focusing on multi-scenario comprehensive energy storage solutions and digital empowerment to accelerate energy transformation [7] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 22.9x in 2022 to 11.2x in 2026 [6] - P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 2.3x in 2022 to 1.5x in 2026 [6] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to drop from 13.9x in 2022 to 7.4x in 2026 [13] Shareholder Returns - The company has implemented a share buyback program, repurchasing 10,342,300 shares (0.83% of total shares) at an average price of RMB 6.34-9.15 per share [22] - EPS is expected to grow from RMB 0.47 in 2022 to RMB 0.96 in 2026 [6]