宏观研究报告：“我竞选的是首相，不是马戏团长”

Group 1: Political Landscape - Trump has a significant lead after the first presidential debate, causing disappointment among Democrats regarding Biden's performance[1] - The decision for Democrats to either support or abandon Biden is crucial in the near future[4] - Biden's potential withdrawal from the race could lead to a rapid shift in market dynamics favoring Trump[22] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. data indicates a dual cooling of the economy and inflation, with expectations for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to slide towards 4.20%[2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow data suggests further signs of economic cooling, impacting interest rate movements[7][18] - Core inflation in the U.S. is expected to approach 3%, reinforcing market expectations for two rate cuts within the year[7] Group 3: Market Reactions - The market's trading style has become increasingly extreme, influenced by hedge funds' roles[22] - A potential Biden withdrawal would shift market focus to upcoming non-farm payroll and inflation data[18] - The core of the Trump trade is the steepening of the yield curve, with short-term rates likely to decline regardless of the election outcome[36]