财信宏观策略&市场资金跟踪周报：市场缩量调整，关注结构性机会

Strategy Overview - The report highlights a market contraction with a focus on structural opportunities as the A-share market continues to experience fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.59% and remaining below 3000 points [1][36] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased by 8.31% to 608.19 billion yuan, indicating a lack of new capital inflow [1][36] - The resource sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, retail, and steel, showed positive performance amid expectations of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][36] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2949.9 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.73% to 8695.55 points [1][36] - The large-cap blue-chip indices outperformed smaller indices, with the dividend index rising by 0.49% [1][36] - The valuation of all A-shares is at a price-to-book ratio of 1.38, lower than 99.5% of the past decade, suggesting an increase in long-term investment value [1][36] Industry Insights - The real estate sector showed signs of stabilization due to the 517 real estate policy, with the top 100 real estate companies achieving sales of 438.93 billion yuan in June, a month-on-month increase of 36.3% [22] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 key cities was 14,423 yuan per square meter, continuing a downward trend [22] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the sustainability of policy effects in the real estate market, as the second-hand housing prices have not yet stabilized, adding uncertainty to the sector [22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines for investment in Q3 2024: high-dividend large-cap blue chips, resource sectors, export industries, and the AI industry chain [27][43][46] - The resource sector is expected to benefit from improved external demand and potential price increases for non-ferrous metals and precious metals [27][45] - The export industry is anticipated to maintain resilience due to inventory replenishment in the U.S. and demand for durable consumer goods [29] Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment is projected to be in a recovery phase, with moderate economic growth and a favorable monetary environment for equity asset allocation [27] - The report notes that the recent expectations of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have influenced market sentiment and commodity prices [42]