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美国经济:就业市场延续降温
Zhao Yin Guo Ji·2024-07-08 07:00

Group 1: Core Insights - The U.S. economy is showing signs of continued slowdown, with June non-farm payrolls exceeding market expectations but significantly lower than the previous month, indicating a cooling labor market [2][7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, the highest since 2022, suggesting a potential recession warning as per Sahm's Rule [2][7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September and December, with a total reduction of 50 basis points for the year and an additional 100 basis points in the following year [2][7] Group 2: Employment Trends - June saw an addition of 206,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 190,000, but revisions for April and May showed significant downward adjustments [2][4] - The average monthly non-farm job additions dropped from 267,000 in Q1 to 177,000 in Q2, indicating a marked slowdown in job growth [2][4] - The private sector added 136,000 jobs in June, down from 193,000 in May, with notable declines in retail and leisure sectors [2][4] Group 3: Wage and Inflation Dynamics - Wage growth is slowing, with private sector wage growth falling to 3.86% year-on-year, the lowest since May 2021, aligning closer to the 2% inflation target [2][7] - Core service inflation is expected to continue its downward trend, supported by the cooling wage growth and balanced labor supply and demand [2][7] - CPI rent inflation still has room to decline compared to market rent inflation, indicating potential further easing in inflationary pressures [2][7]