大类资产跟踪周报：强美元趋势延续，A股横盘整理

Core Insights - The report highlights the continuation of a strong US dollar trend and a sideways consolidation in the A-share market [3][18] - A-share and Hong Kong stock valuations remain relatively low, supported by intensive policy measures, but the market is expected to continue its consolidation due to a lack of incremental capital [6][10] Equity Market - In June, the PMI remained in the contraction zone at 49.5, indicating a passive inventory accumulation state in the manufacturing sector [10][22] - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises in China showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.4% from January to May 2024, with May's monthly growth slowing to 0.7% [10][22] - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend and defensive sectors such as coal and public utilities, as well as upstream resource sectors benefiting from improved external demand [10][22] Bond Market - The report notes an increase in cross-quarter funding demand, leading to an overall decline in interest rates, with the central bank increasing reverse repo operations [26][31] - As of June 28, the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 5.13 basis points to 2.21%, indicating a downward trend in long-term interest rates [61][26] Commodity Market - The commodity market experienced more declines than increases, with LME zinc leading the gains [19][49] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict, have provided some support for oil prices, while the overall market remains volatile [19][49] Key Data and Events Outlook - The report anticipates significant events such as the French parliamentary elections and the US non-farm payroll data for June, which could impact market sentiment [54][55]