美国6月非农点评：美国就业市场趋势性放缓

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 117,000 jobs in the service sector, down from 181,000 in the previous month[1] - The healthcare and education sector contributed the most with 82,000 jobs, while retail lost 9,000 jobs and professional and business services lost 17,000 jobs[1] - The goods-producing sector added 19,000 jobs, with construction rebounding significantly by 27,000 jobs, while manufacturing lost 8,000 jobs[1] Labor Market Trends - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, with a total of 277,000 people added to the labor force, pushing the labor participation rate to 62.6%[2] - The average hourly wage increased by $0.10 to $35, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.86%, down from 4.05%[6] - Job openings in the U.S. are expected to continue declining, with the latest vacancy rate at 4.9%[14] Economic Outlook - The market is pricing in a 78% probability of a rate cut in September and a 77% chance in December, reflecting increased confidence in rate reductions for the year[2] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with the average monthly job addition over the last three months at only 177,000, indicating a trend of weakening since April[2] - Risks include the potential for stronger-than-expected resilience in the U.S. job market and tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve[3]