宏观研究报告：马克龙告诉拜登，坚持就会有奇迹

Labor Market Insights - The difficulty in interpreting the U.S. non-farm payroll report has increased over the past few years, with investors seeking insights into the labor market and economy while finding the data itself questionable[2] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.1%, driven significantly by an increase in labor participation, particularly among men[23] - In June, the job growth exceeded expectations, but prior data for April and May was revised down by 57,000 and 54,000 jobs respectively, leading to a reduction of 90,000 in average job growth for Q2 compared to Q1[10] Economic Projections - The market is betting on two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, particularly after the recent employment data and rising unemployment rate[3] - The average unemployment rate for the last three months is approaching the Sahm Rule threshold of 0.5%, indicating potential recession concerns[27] - Wage growth has slowed, with June's year-on-year wage growth at 3.8%, down from 6% in March, reflecting reduced pressure on wages[27] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm payroll data release, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.3%, and the market is increasingly anticipating a rate cut in September[11] - The euro has strengthened above 1.08 against the dollar, as the latter weakens with declining interest rates[11] - Overall, the report suggests a resilient U.S. economy, with a "soft landing" being the most appropriate description despite rising unemployment[19]