《印尼经济展望》，2024年6月：释放印尼商业潜力（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Indonesia's GDP growth remains resilient at 5.1 percent in Q1-2024, supported by robust private consumption which accounted for 57 percent of GDP growth [23][48] - Inflation pressures are re-emerging, with headline inflation rising to 2.8 percent year-on-year in May 2024, driven by food prices and climate conditions affecting domestic production [23][50] - The fiscal stance has expanded slightly amid rising social spending, with a small budget surplus of 0.1 percent of GDP in Q1-2024 [23][25] - The private sector is crucial for Indonesia to achieve high-income status by 2045, requiring an annual growth rate of over 6 percent and a productivity increase of 3 percent [33][35] Summary by Sections Economic Update - Indonesia's GDP growth was 5 percent in 2023 and 5.1 percent in Q1-2024, surpassing the world average of 2.6 percent [48] - Public consumption rebounded in Q1-2024, driven by election-related and social spending, while net exports negatively contributed to growth due to weak global demand [23][49] - Inflation accelerated again in 2024, with food prices significantly impacting the overall inflation rate [23][50] Unleashing Indonesia's Business Potential - The private sector is characterized by a large number of small firms, with 66 million businesses, predominantly micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) [34] - Regulatory reforms have improved the business environment, but challenges such as regulatory unpredictability and corruption persist [36][42] - Enhancing productivity and addressing structural challenges are essential for sustaining economic growth and improving living standards [35][44] Structural Challenges - The manufacturing sector is becoming less diversified, with a concentration in food and beverages, leading to vulnerabilities [29] - Regional income convergence has slowed, with disparities particularly evident in eastern Indonesia [30] - Labor productivity in Indonesia lags behind comparator countries, necessitating improvements to enhance competitiveness [38][39]