紫金矿业：24H1业绩预告同比大增，量价齐升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with estimates ranging from approximately 145.5 to 154.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 41% to 50% [4] - The company has reported a substantial increase in production and prices of its main products, contributing to the expected profit growth [4] - The company has made breakthroughs in resource reserves, adding significant copper metal resources, which is a key part of its growth strategy [5] - The company is projected to see continued growth in gold and copper production over the next few years, with net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 showing strong growth rates [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 34% [1] Financial Performance - For 2024H1, the company anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 42.48 to 51.48 billion yuan compared to 2023H1 [4] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of around 82.9 to 91.9 billion yuan for Q2 2024, marking a 39.6% increase from Q1 2024 [4] - The average price of gold and copper has increased significantly, contributing to the expected profit growth [4] Production and Resource Development - The company reported a year-on-year increase in gold production of 9.6% and copper production of 5.3% for 2024H1 [4] - Major projects like the Kamoa Copper Mine and the Giant Dragon Copper Mine are expected to significantly boost production capacity in the coming years [5] - The company has added 1,837.7 million tons of copper metal resources, which is about 14.2% of China's copper reserves as of the end of 2022 [5] Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 313 billion yuan in 2024, with growth rates of 48.4%, 24.8%, and 14.1% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] - The expected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 15.7x, 12.5x, and 11.0x, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5]