半导体ETF：看周期趋势向好，多板块预示复苏

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Positive" investment rating for the semiconductor industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, with product and inventory cycles indicating a positive trend. From November 2023 to April 2024, global and Chinese semiconductor sales have seen six consecutive months of growth, with current growth rates approaching 20% [3][21] - The establishment of the third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund is expected to improve the overall ecosystem of the industry, with a registered capital of 344 billion yuan, surpassing the previous two phases combined [3][36] - The AI wave continues to be the main driver of industry recovery, benefiting multiple sectors such as storage, analog, and packaging. The demand in industrial and automotive sectors is also showing signs of improvement [3][40] Summary by Sections 1. Semiconductor Cycle Perspective - The semiconductor industry is gradually showing recovery signs, with key indicators indicating a turning point. The current cycle is primarily driven by product and inventory cycles [10] - The sales figures for global semiconductors from 2021 to 2023 were $555.89 billion,$574.08 billion, and $520.13 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 26.23%, 3.27%, and -9.40% [17] 2. Semiconductor Industry Chain - The industry chain presents structured opportunities, with various segments facing different growth potentials. The AI wave is expected to drive growth in sectors such as SoC, storage, and power devices [40][54] - The storage segment is entering an upward cycle, with significant growth in demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) driven by AI applications [59][64] 3. Semiconductor Industry ETF and Investment Recommendations - The semiconductor industry ETF is worth attention as the industry is expected to enter an upward cycle. As of July 1, 2024, the semiconductor index PB is at 3.31, indicating a high safety margin [3][150] - The report suggests that while some segments of the semiconductor industry may still face short-term pressure, most segments are expected to see sustained growth or turning points in the second half of 2024 [150]