DEHUA TB(002043) 广发证券·2024-07-09 07:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.18 CNY per share [3] - The current price is 9.81 CNY, and the target price implies a potential upside of 34.4% [3] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is 11.17x, and for 2025E, it is 9.59x [7] Core Views - The company's core business is decorative panels, with significant growth potential in furniture factory and rural distribution channels [1] - The company's market share is entering an accelerated growth phase due to its strong competitive advantages in channel transformation [1] - The company's asset-light business model has resulted in a high ROE, averaging over 25% in the past five years [6] - The company has a stable and high dividend payout and share repurchase policy, with historical dividends and repurchases totaling 3.5 billion CNY, accounting for 86% of cumulative net profit from 2005 to 2023 [6] Industry Analysis - The global demand for wood-based panels is stable, with Europe and China being the two largest markets [145] - In Europe, the demand for wood-based panels is driven by renovation and replacement, with new housing accounting for only 10% of the demand [131] - The European wood-based panel industry is highly concentrated, with the top 3 companies accounting for 55% of the market share in 2021 [158] - In China, the wood-based panel industry has entered a mature stage, with the market size stabilizing at around 200 billion CNY, and the top 3 companies accounting for only 13% of the market share in 2023, indicating significant room for further consolidation [5] Company Analysis Decorative Panels Business - The company's decorative panels business has shown strong growth resilience, with revenue expected to grow by 10.1% in 2024E and 8.7% in 2025E [7] - The company's market share in the decorative panels segment is expected to accelerate, driven by its furniture factory and rural distribution channels [1] - The company's gross margin for decorative panels is expected to remain stable at around 11.5% from 2024E to 2026E [99] Customized Home Furnishing Business - The company's customized home furnishing business is expected to enter a stable growth phase, with revenue expected to grow by 20.0% in 2024E and 16.4% in 2025E [7] - The company's gross margin for customized home furnishing is expected to improve gradually, reaching 25.0% by 2026E [99] Asset-Light Business Model - The company's asset-light business model has resulted in a high ROE, averaging over 25% in the past five years [6] - The company's ROE is expected to remain stable at around 22% from 2024E to 2026E [7] Shareholder Returns - The company has a stable and high dividend payout and share repurchase policy, with historical dividends and repurchases totaling 3.5 billion CNY, accounting for 86% of cumulative net profit from 2005 to 2023 [6] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of at least 50% from 2024 to 2026 [82] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 10.1% in 2024E and 8.7% in 2025E, reaching 10.84 billion CNY in 2025E [7] - The company's net profit is expected to grow by 6.9% in 2024E and 16.4% in 2025E, reaching 858 million CNY in 2025E [7] - The company's EPS is expected to be 0.88 CNY in 2024E and 1.02 CNY in 2025E [7]