2024年中期宏观策略：看云涌于天，待风归之时

Group 1: A-share Market Overview - The A-share market is currently characterized by a weak recovery and continued bottom-building, with a need for asset revaluation [1] - Defensive strategies are favored, with high dividend and export chains leading the market [1] - The market is awaiting external factors such as a weakening US economy and domestic economic recovery to improve risk appetite [1] Group 2: Investment Style and Focus Areas - Focus on dividend quality by considering dividend yield, sustainability, ROE, and expected catalysts, particularly in sectors like banking, home appliances, transportation, and public utilities [2] - Emphasis on recovery in sectors such as chemicals, home appliances, machinery, agriculture, consumer electronics, semiconductors, tourism, and aviation [2] - Attention to policy support in areas like vehicle-road-cloud integration, low-altitude economy, and new energy [2] - Highlighting technological growth driven by policy guidance, corporate innovation, funding support, and thematic catalysts, especially in semiconductors, consumer electronics, AI computing power, high-end equipment, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2] Group 3: Macro Economic Context - The overseas macroeconomic environment is shifting between gradual recession and re-inflation, with a focus on the upcoming elections [6][19] - Domestic macroeconomic conditions show improvements in volume but price pressures remain, necessitating attention to policy increments [6][65] - The report indicates that the economic recovery in China is not meeting expectations, with the stock and bond markets facing challenges from three major protective battles [64][65] Group 4: Key Economic Indicators - The report notes that the US economy is experiencing marginal declines without clear signs of recession, with consumer confidence and basic economic indicators trending downward [43][45] - The unemployment rate in the US has risen to 4.1%, indicating a potential shift in labor market dynamics [78] - Inflation risks are easing, particularly with no significant rebound in rental inflation, suggesting a reduction in re-inflation concerns [87][88] Group 5: Political and Economic Outlook - The upcoming US elections are expected to influence economic and monetary policy directions, impacting asset prices [108] - The report discusses the potential implications of Trump's return to power, including increased tariffs and fiscal spending, which could drive re-inflation trades [117][121] - Different candidates' economic strategies are outlined, with Trump favoring tax cuts and deregulation, while Biden emphasizes infrastructure investment and higher taxes on corporations [119]