ANTA SPORTS(02020) 国信证券·2024-07-09 10:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][2][12] Core Views - The company reported strong retail performance in Q2 2024, with the main brand Anta achieving high single-digit growth, FILA achieving mid-single-digit growth, and other brands experiencing a growth of 40-45% [1][2] - The second quarter showed a healthy inventory turnover and a significant reduction in online discounts, indicating improved operational quality [2][5] - The company is expected to maintain its industry-leading growth due to the star effect of the Anta brand, product matrix upgrades, and multi-brand incubation efforts [2][6] Summary by Sections Q2 Performance - In Q2 2024, Anta's main brand recorded high single-digit growth, while FILA saw mid-single-digit growth, and other brands grew by 40-45% [1][2] - All brands achieved a target completion rate of 100%, with inventory turnover ratios improving and online discounts narrowing significantly [2][5] Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is as follows: 134.6 billion, 134.8 billion, and 147.8 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 31.5%, 0.2%, and 9.6% respectively [2][7] - Adjusted net profit estimates, excluding a one-time gain from AmerSports, are approximately 118.6 billion, 134.8 billion, and 147.8 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.8%, 13.7%, and 9.6% [2][6] Valuation and Target Price - The target price is set between 104-113 HKD, with a relative P/E ratio of 23-25x based on the adjusted EPS for 2024 [2][6] - The company is expected to continue enhancing its competitiveness in the global sports market through its multi-tiered brand matrix in China and its multi-brand layout globally [2][6]