紫金矿业2024H1业绩预告点评：金铜共振，业绩再创新高

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to 22.40 CNY [2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from significant price increases in copper and gold, alongside production growth and cost reductions, leading to a substantial increase in performance [2]. - The company is gradually building a diversified asset portfolio in copper, gold, lithium, and molybdenum, enhancing its investment value [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be between 145.5 billion CNY and 154.5 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 41% to 50% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 31.575 billion CNY and 37.215 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 49.5% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is adjusted to 1.19 CNY, with further projections of 1.40 CNY for 2025 and 1.58 CNY for 2026 [2][3]. Production and Pricing - The company reported a production increase in gold, copper, and silver for the first half of 2024, with year-on-year growth of 9.6%, 5.3%, and 1.3% respectively [2]. - The average selling prices for copper, gold, and silver increased by 10%, 20%, and 28% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [2]. Cost Management - The average sales cost for gold and copper in Q1 2024 was 223 CNY per gram and 22,400 CNY per ton, showing a decrease of 7% and 10% respectively compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The company is expected to maintain a downward trend in costs in Q2 2024 [2]. Competitive Advantage - The company has a significant cost advantage, with its copper C1 cost and gold AISC cost ranking in the top 20% globally [2]. - The company plans to increase its gold and copper production to 90 tons and 1.17 million tons by 2025, representing a growth of 32% and 16% respectively compared to 2023 [2]. Diversification Strategy - The company currently holds substantial resources in copper and gold, with 75 million tons and 30,000 tons respectively, and is expanding into lithium, molybdenum, and silver [2]. - The diversified asset portfolio is expected to enhance the company's investment value, especially with the anticipated price resonance of copper and gold during the upcoming interest rate cuts [2].