中国神华：煤价同比下行影响1H24业绩表现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with target prices of 54.20 RMB for A shares and 44.30 HKD for H shares [2][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to rise in the second half of 2024 due to demand support, despite a decline in coal prices impacting the company's performance in the first half of 2024 [1][5]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 286-306 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.1%-14.1% [5][6]. - The integrated operation model of the company helps mitigate the impact of falling coal prices on its performance [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue is forecasted to decline from 343,074 million RMB in 2023 to 333,082 million RMB in 2024E, representing a decrease of 2.91% [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover slightly from 59,694 million RMB in 2023 to 63,288 million RMB in 2024E, marking a growth of 6.02% [5][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 3.19 RMB in 2024E, up from 3.00 RMB in 2023 [5][11]. Market and Operational Insights - The company reported a stable increase in coal production and sales, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% and 5.3% respectively for the first five months of 2024 [6]. - The average selling price of coal has decreased, with the Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal spot price down approximately 14.4% year-on-year [5][6]. - The electricity sales volume for the first five months of 2024 increased by 6.8% year-on-year, although there was a decline in monthly sales compared to the first quarter due to increased hydropower output [6].