HTSC·2024-07-10 06:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 93.50 [2][8][13] Core Views - Anta's retail performance in Q2 2024 showed strong growth, with retail sales increasing in the mid-single digits year-on-year, and Fila achieving high single-digit growth. Other brands saw a growth of 40-45% [2][3] - The overall retail sales for Anta in the first half of 2024 are expected to grow in the mid-single digits, with Fila showing high single-digit growth and other brands growing by 35-40% [2][3] - The company is expected to maintain its profit performance in the first half of 2024 due to effective cost control, despite the high base and weather impacts [2][3] - The report anticipates a double-digit growth in retail sales for the full year 2024, supported by a decrease in the base in the second half of the year [3] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta's Q2 2024 retail sales growth was better than the industry average, with effective cost control leading to favorable profit performance [2][3] - Fila's retail sales in Q2 2024 continued to grow despite a challenging consumer environment, with online sales increasing by 20-30% [4] - The outdoor brand segment also showed strong growth, with expectations for continued improvement in retail sales and inventory turnover [5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Anta are set at RMB 69.971 billion for 2024, with a net profit forecast of RMB 13.248 billion [6][11] - EPS for 2024 is adjusted to RMB 4.27, with upward revisions for 2025 and 2026 to RMB 4.88 and RMB 5.51 respectively [2][11] - The report highlights a target PE ratio of 20x for 2024, reflecting a slight adjustment from previous estimates [2][13] Brand Strategy - Anta's brand strategy includes a strong product lineup and marketing initiatives, such as partnerships for the Olympics, which are expected to enhance consumer engagement [3] - The introduction of new store formats like Super Anta and Champion stores has significantly outperformed traditional store formats [3]