SHANYING INTERNATIONAL(600567) 民生证券·2024-07-10 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [5][7] Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to improve quarter by quarter in the second half of 2024, driven by the peak consumption season and its scale and regional advantages [5] - The company's domestic paper production capacity is expected to reach approximately 8 million tons/year, further consolidating its leading position in the industry [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 510 million, 1.02 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13X, 7X, and 4X [5][6] Financial Performance and Forecast - For H1 2024, the company forecasts a net profit attributable to the parent company of 90-135 million yuan, turning from a loss to a profit, while the non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -100 to -140 million yuan, narrowing the loss [2] - In Q2 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 51-96 million yuan, a year-on-year change of -27% to +37%, while the non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -125 to -85 million yuan, with an expanded loss [2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 28.6%, 12.0%, and 15.8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reaching 37.713 billion, 42.238 billion, and 48.914 billion yuan [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by 228.6%, 99.3%, and 56.3% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] Operational Highlights - In Q2 2024, the company's capacity utilization rate increased, leading to an overall profit improvement [3] - The average price of containerboard and corrugated paper in Q2 2024 was 3,196 yuan/ton and 2,656 yuan/ton, down 1.28% and 5.03% quarter-on-quarter, respectively [3] - The company's paper production profit per ton in Q2 2024 is expected to rise to approximately 25 yuan/ton, while the packaging business is expected to maintain stable profitability [3] - The average price of domestic waste paper in Q2 2024 was 1,331.02 yuan/ton, down 6.87% year-on-year and 4.33% quarter-on-quarter [3] Strategic Measures - The company adjusted the conversion price of its convertible bonds to avoid redemption, lowering the conversion price from 2.37 yuan/share to 2.32 yuan/share [4] - The company plans to raise over 4 billion yuan through various measures, including the disposal of Nordic Paper's equity, the sale of 51% of its packaging company's equity, and the return of 2 billion yuan in loans from the packaging company [4] - Other measures include using repurchased shares for convertible bond conversion, extending the core employee stock ownership plan, and repurchasing shares and bonds [4] Industry and Market Position - The company is a leading domestic containerboard and corrugated paper manufacturer, adhering to an integrated industrial chain strategy and steadily expanding its production capacity [5] - With the completion of new production lines in Zhejiang and Jilin, the company's domestic paper production capacity is expected to reach approximately 8 million tons/year, further solidifying its industry leadership [5]