市场进入上涨趋势 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Author] | 分析师 叶尔乐 | | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110059 | | 邮箱： yeerle@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 陆豪 | | 执业证书： S0590523070001 | | 邮箱： luhao@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 关舒丹 | | 执业证书： S0590525110060 | | 邮箱： guanshudan@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 祝子涵 | | 执业证书： S0590525110061 | | 邮箱： zhuzihan@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 裴钰琪 | | 执业证书： S0590125110081 | | 邮箱： peiyuqi@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 陆诵韬 | | 执业证书： S0590124060037 | | 邮箱： lust@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 量化周报 择时观点：市场进入上 ...

量化大势研判 202601 宜攻守兼备：成长+质量 glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 01 月 04 日 分析师 叶尔乐 执业证书： S0590525110059 邮箱： yeerle@glms.com.cn 为了解决风格系统化轮动难题，我们开启了自下而上的量化大势研判探究。所谓 风格是资产本身的内在属性，内嵌于其产业生命周期的变化中，存在五种风格阶 段：外延成长、质量成长、质量红利、价值红利、破产价值。全局比较下来的优 势资产其特征属性，即为未来市场的主流风格。可通过 g>ROE>D 的基本优先级 进行考察，分析"有没有（好资产）"和"（好资产）贵不贵"进行优势资产的比 较判断，最后聚焦当下最具有优势的细分板块。 预期增速资产优势差继续回升，实际增速资产优势差小幅回升，继续推荐预期成 长风格，景气类成长建议标配。△gf 继续保持扩张，其主要来自 Top 组的上升， 高预期增速板块依然有表现机会；△g 小幅回升，景气类策略虽缺乏基本面动量优 势，但可保持标配。 ROE 的优势差继续回 ...

转债周策略 20260104 如何跟踪转债相对股票的性价比 glmszqdatemark 如何跟踪转债相对股票的性价比 （1）转换价值大于等于 130 元的股性转债，涨跌仍相对正股存在一定的"钝化"， 但和正股涨跌的相关性明显高于转换价值更低的转债。 通过计算日频的跟涨比数据和跟跌比数据，可以统计得到月频的平均跟涨比数据 和跟跌比数据，月频的涨跌比数据。从月度转债跟涨比和跟跌比来看，我们可得 到以下分析结论： 风险提示：转债估值压缩风险，个股业绩波动风险。 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 徐亮 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 林浩睿 | | 执业证书： S0590525110039 | | | 邮箱： | linhaorui@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 黄涵静 | | 执业证书： S0590125110075 | | | 邮箱： | huanghanjing@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询 ...

钢铁周报 20260104 铁矿补库预期增强，钢材出口短期承压 glmszqdatemark | 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | | | （元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 000932.SZ | 华菱钢铁 | 5.62 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.64 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 推荐 | | 600019.SH | 宝钢股份 | 7.45 | 0.49 | 0.56 | 0.62 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 推荐 | | 600282.SH | 南钢股份 | 5.26 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 推荐 | | 301160.SZ | 翔楼新材 | 71.89 | 2.99 | 3.63 | 4.33 | 24 ...

摩托车行业 2026 年度投资策略 2025 自主增势强劲 2026 高端出海突围 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 603129.SH | 春风动力 | 278.68 | 9.72 | 12.19 | 15.61 | 29 | 23 | 18 | 推荐 | | 603766.SH | 隆鑫通用 | 16.11 | 0.55 | 0.96 | 1.13 | 30 | 17 | 14 | 推荐 | | 000913.SZ | 钱江摩托 | 15.42 | 1.29 | 1.22 | 1.44 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 推荐 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测;（注：股价为 2025 年 12 月 31 日收盘价） 2026 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 30.27 CNY [6][31]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire 100% of PMG International Co., Ltd., gaining control over Yuan Shi Technology, which will enhance its position in the AI server market and create a global AI hardware innovation platform [2][4]. - Yuan Shi Technology has established a core role in the development of NVIDIA's next-generation server platform, Vera Rubin, and is one of only five companies globally to hold NVIDIA's RVL certification, positioning it as a key supplier in the AI server supply chain [2][3][17]. - The acquisition is expected to significantly improve the company's core competitiveness in AI computing hardware solutions, leveraging its existing manufacturing capabilities and advanced liquid cooling systems [4][29]. Summary by Sections Acquisition of Yuan Shi Technology - On December 10, the company announced an agreement to acquire PMG International, indirectly gaining control of Yuan Shi Technology, which holds a 95.1% stake in PMG [2][13]. - This acquisition will provide access to mature technologies and customer certifications in server cabinet business, expanding the company's footprint in the AI sector [4][13]. Server Cabinet Business - Yuan Shi Technology is a core supplier for NVIDIA's server cabinets, having passed rigorous testing and being able to adapt to high-end AI server requirements [17]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the upcoming Vera Rubin platform, which is expected to significantly increase computing power and revenue potential [18][19]. Liquid Cooling Business - The collaboration between Yuan Shi Technology and its sister company, Pinda Technology, focuses on "heat management + cabinet" solutions, establishing a strong competitive edge in the AI server market [20][29]. - Pinda's magnesium alloy technology enhances the performance and efficiency of cooling systems, addressing critical challenges in heat management for high-performance servers [23][26]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 85.07 billion CNY in 2025, 102.90 billion CNY in 2026, and 119.22 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 4.91 billion CNY, 6.30 billion CNY, and 7.39 billion CNY respectively [5][31]. - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned for growth, with a projected PE ratio decreasing from 33 in 2025 to 22 in 2027, indicating potential for investment [31][32].

| 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 600711.SH | 盛屯矿业 | 15.16 | 0.65 | 0.75 | 1.48 | 23 | 20 | 10 | 推荐 | | 000408.SZ | 藏格矿业 | 84.40 | 1.64 | 2.34 | 4.42 | 51 | 36 | 19 | 推荐 | | 603993.SH | 洛阳钼业 | 20.00 | 0.63 | 0.88 | 1.29 | 32 | 23 | 15 | 推荐 | | 601899.SH | 紫金矿业 | 34.47 | 1.21 | 2.00 | 2.71 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 推荐 | | 01208.HK | 五矿资源 | 7.94 | 0.09 | 0.43 | 0.61 | 84 | 18 | 13 ...

策略专题研究 国联民生研究：2026 年 1 月金股推荐 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 1 月策略观点 市场在震荡过程中，波动率逐步下降，或重新具备进一步突破前高的条件。短期 内，一方面市场接近前高，并且恰逢岁末年初，部分投资者可能会面临了结盈利 的需求，另一方面 12 月以来国内 ETF 市场获得大量增量资金，规模持续上升， 但后续有一定的赎回压力，市场在 1 月上旬可能面临波动加大的风险。中期看， 市场仍处于上行趋势中，并且春季行情即将来临。在当前市场环境下，市场整体 盈利增速逐步复苏但缺乏弹性，市场仍会更加关注各类主题资产和宏大叙事下的 投资机会，因而我们认为在 1 月中下旬可以开始逐步布局各类主题投资机会。 2026 年 1 月金股组合： 2025 年 12 月 31 日 [Table_Author] 分析师 邓宇林 | 执业证书： S0590523100008 | | --- | | 邮箱： yldeng@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 肖辉煌 | | 执业证书： S0590525080003 | | 邮箱： xiaohh@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投 ...

Market Overview - The tech bubble from 1995 to 2000 was driven by technological advancements, macroeconomic changes, regulatory relaxations, and shifts in monetary policy frameworks[6] - The NASDAQ Composite Index peaked at 5048.62 on March 10, 2000, before a significant sell-off began due to external economic shocks[9] Economic Factors - Labor productivity in the U.S. increased significantly during this period, breaking the long-standing relationship of "low unemployment and high inflation" and contributing to economic resilience[6] - The rapid increase in productivity led to a contraction of the output gap, with inflation remaining subdued despite declining unemployment rates[17] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve, under Alan Greenspan, adopted a technology-friendly monetary policy framework, maintaining low interest rates to support economic growth while being cautious about inflation[22] - The Fed's approach evolved to focus on maintaining overall price stability and managing the consequences of asset bubbles rather than attempting to burst them[23] Investment Trends - The number of tech IPOs surged from 1995, peaking in 1999, reflecting a growing investor appetite for technology stocks[9] - In 1998 and 1999, tech stocks experienced a significant rally, with the information technology sector showing returns of 77.64% and 78.44% respectively[32] Risk Factors - The report highlights that excessive liquidity and regulatory relaxation were common characteristics of bubbles, with the potential for chaotic leverage expansion being a critical concern[6] - The experience of the tech bubble serves as a cautionary tale, emphasizing that historical patterns cannot be solely relied upon for future investment decisions[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is focusing on autonomous driving in trunk logistics, which is expected to open new development opportunities. The market for road transportation in China exceeds 5 trillion yuan, with trunk logistics accounting for approximately 3.9 trillion yuan. The advancement of AI and Level 4 autonomous driving technology is seen as a key area for commercialization [7] - The strategic shift towards trunk logistics autonomous driving is supported by the company's strong industry foundation, including partnerships with provincial transportation groups and a robust understanding of road freight scenarios. This positions the company well for obtaining testing licenses and operational permits [7] - The business model is anticipated to transition from project-based revenue to transportation service income, leveraging autonomous fleets and SaaS offerings for higher-margin, recurring revenue streams [7] Financial Forecasts and Indicators - Projected revenue for 2024 is 7,249 million yuan, with a growth rate of -7.0%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 9,331 million yuan, maintaining a growth rate of 10.3% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -1,193 million yuan in 2024, improving to 651 million yuan by 2027, with a corresponding growth rate of 37.0% [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -0.75 yuan in 2024, turning positive to 0.41 yuan by 2027 [8] - The company’s EBITDA is projected to grow significantly from 82 million yuan in 2024 to 1,087 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [8]