Mtalco(SH:601677) Tebon Securities·2024-07-10 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ming Tai Aluminum (601677.SH) [1] Core Views - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for H1 2024, projecting a net profit of 1 to 1.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% to 37% [1] - The growth in profit is attributed to steady increases in production and sales, with a projected sales growth of approximately 19% for H1 2024 [1] - The company is benefiting from the expanding application of recycled aluminum, which enhances profitability per ton [1] - The company's overseas expansion strategy is beginning to show results [1] Financial Performance - For Q2 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 638 to 738 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 76% to 104% compared to Q1 2024 [1] - The company has set a long-term production and sales target of 2 million tons, with recycled aluminum capacity expected to reach 1.4 million tons [2] - The production of aluminum plates and foils has increased from 310,000 tons in 2012 to 1.25 million tons in 2023, indicating rapid growth [2] Market Dynamics - The average spot aluminum price in Q2 2024 reached 20,533 yuan per ton, a 7.8% increase from Q1 2024 [27] - The report highlights that the price gap between domestic and international aluminum prices is narrowing, which could enhance the company's export profits [27] - The company’s sales model, which is based on the London aluminum price plus processing fees, will benefit if international prices remain higher than domestic prices [27] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are set at 35.4 billion, 40 billion, and 40.2 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.17 billion, 2.47 billion, and 2.52 billion yuan [19] - The report estimates earnings per share (EPS) of 1.75, 1.98, and 2.02 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.2x, 6.3x, and 6.2x [19]