金属行业周报：Antofagasta铜矿敲定新加工费

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1][2] Core Views - Steel: Downstream demand is in a seasonal off-peak period, with weak supply and demand dynamics. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention needed on the upcoming Third Plenum [1] - Copper: Antofagasta has agreed on a new processing fee (TC) of $23.25 per dry ton with some Chinese smelters, covering 50% of copper concentrate supply for H2 2024 and H1 2025. Copper prices may fluctuate in the short term due to moderate demand [1][2] - Aluminum: Supply of alumina remains tight, with no large-scale resumption of bauxite mining in Shanxi and Henan. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to steady production release and moderate downstream demand [1] - Lithium: Tariffs imposed by the US and EU on Chinese new energy vehicles and batteries may impact export demand. Lithium prices are expected to remain weak due to oversupply pressures [2] Key Data and Trends Steel - Demand: Shanghai terminal rebar and wire rod procurement volume was 16,300 tons on July 5, up 10.14% from June 28 [9] - Supply: Production of five major steel products was 8.9792 million tons on July 5, down 1.41% from June 28 and 4.14% year-on-year [10] - Inventory: Total steel inventory (social + mill) was 17.561 million tons on July 5, up 0.22% from June 28 and 10.11% year-on-year [14] - Raw materials: PB fines price at Qingdao Port rose 1.95% to 836 yuan/wet ton from June 28 to July 5 [15] Copper - Processing fees: TC/RC for Chinese smelters was$ 2.60 per ton and 0.26 cents per pound on July 5, up 8.33% from June 28 [22] - Prices: LME copper spot price rose 3.51% to $9,800 per ton, while Yangtze River nonferrous copper spot price rose 2.73% to 79,900 yuan per ton from June 28 to July 5 [23] - Inventory: LME copper inventory increased 6.38% to 191,600 tons, while SHFE copper inventory rose 0.39% to 250,600 tons [23] Aluminum - Prices: LME aluminum spot price rose 0.40% to$ 2,500 per ton, while Yangtze River nonferrous aluminum spot price rose 0.60% to 20,300 yuan per ton from June 28 to July 5 [25] - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased 2.65% to 999,700 tons, while SHFE aluminum inventory fell 2.19% to 152,500 tons [25] Lithium - Prices: Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate price fell 1.29% to 91,800 yuan per ton, while lithium concentrate (6%-6.5%) import price fell 0.98% to $1,015 per ton from June 28 to July 5 [31] Recommended Stocks - The report maintains "Overweight" ratings for the following stocks: Boway Alloy (601137), CMOC Group (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Yunnan Tin (000960), and Zijin Mining (601899) [2] Market Performance - From June 28 to July 5, the steel sector rose 1.92%, while the non-ferrous metals sector gained 2.61%. Precious metals and industrial metals were among the top performers [43]