煤炭行业更新报告：煤炭行业复盘30年，投资逻辑的更迭

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [1] Core Views - The coal industry over the past 30 years has been a typical example of cyclical investment, closely following the pulse of economic fluctuations [2] - The investment logic of the coal industry has shifted from a cyclical framework to a focus on dividend assets, driven by structural changes in supply and demand [2] - The cyclical nature of coal is expected to weaken starting in 2024, with coal prices entering a narrow fluctuation range by 2025, reflecting a stable long-term supply-demand balance [2] - In the context of a low-interest-rate environment and asset scarcity, the attractiveness of coal dividend assets is increasing [2] Industry Development History - The coal industry has always followed the trajectory of China's economic development, serving as a "power source" for the nation's growth [9] - Coal production has grown significantly, from 3243 million tons at the founding of the PRC to 471 billion tons in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 5.4% [9] - The industry has transitioned from a fragmented and inefficient structure to one with higher market concentration, driven by supply-side reforms and mergers and acquisitions [9][15] - Supply-side reforms have eliminated 810 million tons of outdated capacity, and the number of coal mines has been reduced to around 4,300, with large-scale mines accounting for over 85% of production [9] Market Concentration and Mergers - Market concentration has increased significantly, with the formation of several large coal enterprises through mergers and acquisitions [15] - Strategic mergers, such as the formation of the National Energy Investment Group and the Shandong Energy Group, have led to the creation of companies with annual production exceeding 200 million tons [11] - The top 8 coal companies produced approximately 22.3 billion tons of raw coal in 2023, accounting for 85% of national production [9] Pricing Mechanism - The coal pricing mechanism has evolved from a government-controlled system to a more market-oriented one, with the introduction of mechanisms like the "base price + floating price" model [21] - The dual-track pricing system for coal was abolished in 2013, and the current pricing model aims to balance market demand and supply [21] Future Outlook - The coal industry is expected to face limited new supply capacity, with domestic supply losing upward elasticity and imports unlikely to grow significantly [2] - Demand for coal is expected to remain stable in the medium term, with coal continuing to play a crucial role in ensuring energy security [2] - The industry is gradually moving away from cyclical fluctuations, with a clear and stable long-term supply-demand structure [2] - The low-interest-rate environment and asset scarcity are expected to enhance the attractiveness of coal dividend assets [2] Recommended Stocks - High-quality companies with stable profitability and predictability are recommended, including Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, and China Coal Energy [2] - Companies with integrated coal and power operations, such as Xinji Energy, are also recommended [2] - Long-term coking coal contracts are favored, with recommendations including Hengyuan Coal, Pingmei, Huaibei Mining, and Shanxi Coking Coal [2] - Companies with strong state-owned enterprise reforms, such as Shanxi Coal International, are also highlighted [2]