Shanghai Securities·2024-07-11 01:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its performance for the first half of 2024, with projected net profit ranging from approximately 145.5 to 154.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 41% to 50% [2] - The increase in performance is primarily attributed to the growth in production of key mineral products and the rise in sales prices of gold, copper, and silver [2] - The company has set ambitious production targets for 2030, aiming to rank among the top 3 to 5 globally in copper and gold production, and top 10 in lithium production [2] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - For Q2 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of approximately 82.89 to 91.89 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of about 32.40% to 46.77% and a year-on-year growth of approximately 70.55% to 89.06% [2] - The production figures for H1 2024 are expected to show a year-on-year increase: gold production at about 35.4 tons (+9.6%), copper production at approximately 518,000 tons (+5.3%), and silver production at around 210.3 tons (+1.3%) [2] Price Trends - In Q2 2024, the average prices for gold, silver, and copper have increased: gold at 2338.26 USD/oz (+12.71% QoQ, +18.21% YoY), silver at 28.86 USD/oz (+23.44% QoQ, +19.26% YoY), and copper at 9873.01 USD/ton (+15.61% QoQ, +16.49% YoY) [2] Resource Expansion - The company has made significant breakthroughs in resource exploration, with the addition of 18.377 million tons of copper metal resources from its projects, accounting for approximately 14.2% of China's copper reserves as of the end of 2022 [3] - The company’s geological exploration has a competitive advantage, with exploration costs significantly lower than the global industry average [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 3411.86 billion yuan, 3698.85 billion yuan, and 3924.63 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +16.29%, +8.41%, and +6.10% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 315.90 billion yuan, 384.77 billion yuan, and 448.75 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +49.58%, +21.80%, and +16.63% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.19 yuan, 1.45 yuan, and 1.69 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]