6月价格数据分析：CPI与PPI的结构指向

CPI Trends - In June 2024, China's CPI decreased by 0.20% month-on-month and increased by 0.20% year-on-year, maintaining positive growth for five consecutive months[1] - The contribution of new price factors to CPI growth was 0.00%, while the tailing effect contributed 0.20%[1] - The CPI for food items in June showed a year-on-year decline of 2.10%, with pork prices increasing by 18.10% compared to the previous year's 4.60%[1] PPI Trends - In June 2024, China's PPI decreased by 0.20% month-on-month and by 0.80% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline from the previous value of -1.40%[1] - The contribution of new price factors to PPI was -0.60%, while the tailing effect contributed -0.20%[6] - The PPI for production materials, including mining and processing industries, showed signs of recovery, with some sectors turning positive[2] Market Outlook - The tailing effect for CPI is expected to decline from 0.20% in June to -0.50% by September, indicating potential downward pressure on CPI[1] - Despite the recovery in industrial product inventory growth and real estate sales, PPI is not expected to fully exit the negative range established since November 2022[6][23] - The overall GDP deflator is anticipated to remain negative until further economic stabilization occurs[28]