固定收益/固收周报 把握套息与久期机会 ——固收周报（2026.01.26-2026.01.30） ◼ 核心观点 利率债：国债收益率多数下行，期限利差收窄：2026 年 01 月 23 日- 2026 年 01 月 30 日期间，央行总计开展 29,365.00 亿元逆回购操作， 共 16,177.00 亿元逆回购到期，净投放 13,188.00 亿元。银行间资金价 格多数上行，其中，DR001 下行 7.06BP 至 1.3277%；DR007 上行 9.91BP 至 1.5926%。交易所资金价格上行，隔夜 GC001 上行 25.40BP 至 1.6290%，GC007 上行 3.30BP 至 1.6140%。2026 年 01 月 26 日-2026 年 02 月 01 日期间，利率债一级发行 6,242.75 亿元，到期债券总偿还 量 2,437.60 亿元，净融资额为 3,805.14 亿元。2026 年 01 月 23 日-2026 年 01 月 30 日期间，国债现券收益率多数下行。国债 3 年期、5 年期、 7 年期、10 年期收益率分别下行 2.09BP、2.04BP、1.82BP、1.8 ...

价格指数回升，结构亮点突出 固定收益/固收点评 非制造业经营放缓，服务业相对稳定。1 月官方非制造业 PMI 录得 49.40%，比前值回落 0.80 个百分点。服务业 PMI 为 49.50%，回落 0.2 个百分点。从行业看，货币金融服务、资本市场服务、保险等行 业商务活动指数均高于 65.0%，市场活跃度较高。在天气叠加节日因 素影响下，建筑业景气度下降，建筑业商务活动指数为 48.80%，比 前值降 4.00 个百分点。 ——1 月 PMI 数据点评 ◼ 投资建议 1 月国内 PMI 数据呈现出结构性亮点。1 月制造业 PMI、非制造业 PMI、综合 PMI 产出指数虽然较前值有所回落，反映出传统淡季期间 经济景气水平短期有所放缓，但生产端保持扩张、新动能行业领跑、 服务业预期向好等结构性亮点凸出。价格指数回升是 1 月制造业 PMI 的另一特征：受部分大宗商品价格上涨影响，主要原材料购进价格指 数环比回升 3.0 个百分点，出厂价格指数环比回升 1.7 个百分点，出 厂价格指数升至临界点上方，有助于改善企业营收与盈利空间。展望 2026 年 2 月，我们认为受春节假期影响，制造业生产可能继续放 缓， ...

通信 行业研究/行业点评 云厂商资本开支高速增长，AI 基础设施产业 链高景气维持 ——通信行业点评报告 ◼ 核心观点 微软持续投资 AI 基础设施。据新华网 2026 年 1 月 29 日报道，微软 公司发布的 2026 财年第二季度财报显示，受云计算业务大幅增长带 动，企业当季营业收入达到 813 亿美元，同比增幅 17%；同期净利润 约为 385 亿美元，同比增长 60%。其中，微软云计算业务收入达 515 亿美元，同比增长 26%，其中智能云业务营收为 329 亿美元，同比增 长 29%。据澎湃新闻报道，微软公司表示，将在整个 AI 技术栈上持续 推进前沿创新。据上海证券报报道，微软第二财季资本支出达到 375 亿美元，同比增长 66%，创下纪录。微软投资者关系主管詹姆斯·安 布罗斯表示，基础设施支出的增加，反映出微软在 AI 相关和非 AI 工 作负载方面持续看到强劲的云需求。 Meta 2026 年计划资本开支快速增长。根据第一财经报道，2026 年 1 月 29 日，Meta 发布 2025 财年第四季度财报，公司第四季度营收及 2026 年第一季度营收指引均显著超出市场预期。报告显示，Meta ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - The company is backed by ASE Group and focuses on electronic design and manufacturing, showing rapid growth in Q3 2025 [1]. - The company aims to evolve from a manufacturing service provider to a comprehensive solution provider, enhancing value for clients through design and service capabilities [1]. - The company has seen a significant improvement in Q3 2025 performance, with a revenue of 16.43 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.10%, and a net profit of 625 million yuan, up 106.26% from the previous quarter [1]. - The dual drivers of AI glasses and computing hardware are expected to propel growth, with the company actively developing high-integration modules for AI glasses and enhancing its cloud storage capabilities [1][2]. - The company is expanding its AI accelerator card production capacity, targeting a monthly output of 90,000 units by Q4 2025 and 180,000 units by 2026 [2]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company is a leading global electronic manufacturing design firm, providing value-added design and manufacturing services to brand clients [1]. - It has established a strong shareholder relationship with ASE Group, which holds 77.32% of the company's shares [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 43.641 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.83%, and a net profit of 1.263 billion yuan, down 2.60% year-on-year [1]. - The company forecasts net profits of 1.873 billion yuan, 2.473 billion yuan, and 3.091 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.78, 1.04, and 1.29 yuan [12]. Product Development - The company is a leader in SiP miniaturization technology, which integrates chips and passive components into a single module, suitable for various applications including mobile communications and AIoT [3]. - The company has begun mass production of AI glasses SiP modules, with significant market demand expected in 2026 [9]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has acquired Guangchuang Technology to enhance its capabilities in advanced optical interconnect technologies [10]. - It is expanding its optical module production capacity in Vietnam, aiming to meet the growing demand in the North American market [10]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the AI computing infrastructure development wave, with a focus on cloud and storage products [12]. - The company is leveraging its relationship with ASE Group to participate in the PDU business, enhancing its product offerings in AI power server modules [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wuxi Sanli Robot Technology Co., Ltd. for approximately 63.43 million RMB, which will make Wuxi Sanli a subsidiary and included in the company's consolidated financial statements [1]. - High-end bearings are crucial components in machinery, with strong demand expected in emerging sectors such as low-altitude economy, humanoid robots, and semiconductor equipment, potentially creating a market space worth hundreds of billions [2]. - Wuxi Sanli is a well-established player in the bearing industry, producing a wide range of bearings used in various sectors including construction machinery, automotive, and agriculture [2]. - The company is focusing on its core business of heat treatment and aims to integrate and extend its industrial chain, leveraging its technology and resources to enhance Wuxi Sanli's product quality and cost control [3]. Financial Projections - The company expects total revenue of 998 million, 1.127 billion, and 1.296 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -21.2%, 13.0%, and 15.0% [4]. - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is 91 million, 126 million, and 173 million RMB for the same years, with corresponding EPS of 0.12, 0.16, and 0.22 RMB [4]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a stable operating performance as a leader in the heat treatment industry while benefiting from the growth of the robotics sector due to the acquisition [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [4][6]. Core Views - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from supportive policies for vehicle consumption and an upward trend in new energy vehicle sales [4][16]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the market share of new energy vehicles, reaching approximately 53.2% in November 2025 [2][36]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that lead in smart technology and are aligned with technological and model cycles, such as SAIC Motor, Xpeng Motors, Xiaomi Group, and Leap Motor [4][16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive sector rose by 2.74% in the week of December 22-26, 2025, ranking 11th among all primary industries [18][21]. - The automotive parts sector saw the highest increase at 3.32%, while motorcycles and others experienced the largest decline at -1.02% [21][22]. Industry Data Tracking 1. **Monthly Sales**: In November 2025, total automotive sales were approximately 3.429 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 3.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [2][29]. 2. **Weekly Sales**: From December 1-21, 2025, retail sales of passenger cars were about 1.3 million units, showing a year-on-year decline of 19% but a month-on-month increase of 5% [38]. 3. **Material Prices**: As of December 26, 2025, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was approximately 111,900 CNY per ton, reflecting a 15% increase from December 19, 2025 [2][45]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes significant industry developments, including the completion of Geely's privatization of Zeekr and the launch of the first mass-produced vehicle featuring the Yuanrong Qihang VLA model [3][49]. - Chery plans to establish Southeast Asia's largest automotive factory in Vietnam by 2026, with an initial production capacity of 30,000 to 60,000 vehicles [3][49]. Company Announcements - Star Source Zhuomai has received a project notification for developing and supplying components for a new energy vehicle's reducer housing, with expected sales of approximately 575 million CNY over four years starting in 2027 [51]. - Zhongding Holdings plans to establish a joint venture for humanoid robot manufacturing and core component supply capabilities [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is expected to see stable growth in consumer demand due to supportive policies and increasing sales of new energy vehicles [17]. - The report highlights the performance of major automakers, with BYD, Geely, and FAW-Volkswagen leading in retail sales for November 2025 [2]. - The report notes a significant increase in the market share of new energy vehicles, reaching approximately 53.2% in November 2025 [2][51]. Market Review - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 0.27% from December 8 to December 12, 2025, outperforming the overall A-share market [19]. - Among sub-sectors, motorcycles and others saw the highest increase of 1.62%, while automotive services faced the largest decline of 4.58% during the same period [22]. Industry Data Tracking - In November 2025, total automotive sales were approximately 3.429 million units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [39]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles for the first week of December 2025 were about 297,000 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 32% [53]. - The report indicates that the price competition in the new energy vehicle market has cooled, with a rational return to pricing strategies [18]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses significant developments, including the launch of new models by Hongmeng Zhixing and the collaboration between Volkswagen and Xiaopeng [3][59]. - It mentions that Hongmeng Zhixing plans to introduce multiple new vehicles in 2026, while Li Auto aims to launch its first L4 autonomous driving model within three years [3][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading automakers in smart technology and those benefiting from the convergence of technology cycles and model cycles, such as SAIC Motor, Xiaopeng Motors, Xiaomi Group, and Leap Motor [4][17]. - It also recommends looking at the electric and intelligent components sector, particularly companies involved in the AIDC liquid cooling supply chain, such as Huguang Co., Chuanhuan Technology, Yinlun Co., and Horizon Robotics [4][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Interest rate bonds: From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 96.51 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 188.68 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 92.17 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funds prices showed mixed trends. During December 1 - 7, 2025, 43.0717 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds were issued, with total repayments of 51.0485 billion yuan and a net financing of - 7.9767 billion yuan. Long - term treasury bond yields increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 43.95BP to 44.64BP [1]. - Credit bonds: From December 1 to 7, 2025, 802 credit bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit) were issued in the primary market, totaling 93.1004 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.6083 billion yuan from the previous period, with a net financing of 21.1647 billion yuan. Credit bond yields to maturity increased. For example, among urban investment bonds, the 10 - year yields of AA +, AA, and AA - ratings increased the most, by 7.79BP [2]. - Observation of major asset classes: From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, European three major stock indexes showed divergence, US bond yields mostly increased, the US dollar index weakened, non - US currencies strengthened, crude oil prices rebounded during the week, and gold futures and spot prices showed divergence [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bonds: Long - term Treasury Bond Yields Increase, Term Spread Widens 1.1 Liquidity Observation: Net Liquidity Decline, Mixed Fund Movements - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net withdrawal was 92.17 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank and exchange funds prices showed mixed trends. For example, DR001 decreased by 0.30BP to 1.3003%, and DR007 decreased by 2.88BP to 1.4380% [16]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance: Decrease in Net Financing, Decline in Local Bond Issuance - From December 1 to 7, 2025, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was - 7.9767 billion yuan. Treasury bonds raised 22.3 billion yuan, policy - based financial bonds raised 9.9 billion yuan, and local government bond issuance decreased, raising 10.8717 billion yuan [25]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading: Long - term Treasury Bond Yields Increase, Term Spread Widens - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, long - term treasury bond yields increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds widened from 43.95BP to 44.64BP, and that of policy - bank bonds widened from 34.94BP to 37.66BP [32]. 2. Credit Bonds: Credit Bond Yields to Maturity Increase 2.1 Primary Market Issuance: Decrease in Issuance Volume Compared with the Previous Period - From December 1 to 7, 2025, 802 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, a decrease of 23.6083 billion yuan from the previous period, with a net financing of 21.1647 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of issuance number, and financial bonds accounted for the highest proportion in terms of issuance amount. The issuance was mainly in the 3 - 5 - year range, and the construction industry had the largest number of bond issuances [44]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading: Credit Bond Yields to Maturity Increase - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, urban investment bond yields to maturity increased, with the 10 - year yields of AA +, AA, and AA - ratings increasing the most, by 7.79BP. Among medium - and short - term notes, the 5 - year yield of AA + rating increased the most, by 4.74BP [54]. 2.3 One - Week Review of Credit Default Events - From December 1 to 7, 2025, 1 enterprise's credit bonds defaulted [56]. 3. Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 Most European and American Stock Indexes Rise - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, European three major stock indexes showed divergence, and Asia - Pacific stock indexes generally rose [57]. 3.2 Most US Bond Yields Increase - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, most US bond yields increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 12.00BP to 53.00BP [60]. 3.3 The US Dollar Index Weakens, Non - US Currencies Strengthen - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the US dollar index decreased by 0.46%, and non - US currencies strengthened. For example, the British pound against the US dollar increased by 0.77%, and the euro against the US dollar increased by 0.37% [64]. 3.4 Crude Oil Rebounds During the Week, Gold Futures and Spot Prices Diverge - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, COMEX gold futures prices decreased by 0.62%, London spot gold prices increased by 1.24%, Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.87%, and WTI crude oil prices increased by 2.61% [66]. 4. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, ultra - long - term bonds are experiencing increased volatility. The reasons may include the transmission of market sentiment caused by the credit risks of bonds like those of Vanke, trading congestion, and changes in policy expectations. The bond market in the next week may focus on policy games and changes in the capital market. Investors are recommended to pay attention to the policy signals from the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the results of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting. They should focus on the support level of around 1.85% for 10 - year treasury bonds. If policies exceed expectations, they can appropriately shorten the duration. Ultra - long - term bonds need to avoid short - term fluctuations and wait for central bank policy signals. For credit bonds, focus on the allocation value of Tier 2 capital bonds and long - duration credit bonds [70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [6] Core Insights - The automotive industry is expected to see stable growth in consumer demand due to supportive policies and increasing sales of new energy vehicles [16][4] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on leading companies in smart technology and the resonance of technology and model cycles in the vehicle sector, as well as the electric and intelligent incremental segments in the parts sector [4][16] Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive sector rose by 1.38% from December 1 to December 5, 2025, outperforming the overall A-share market, ranking 10th among all primary industries [18][21] - The largest gain was in automotive parts, which increased by 1.83%, while passenger vehicles saw the smallest increase of 0.21% [21] Industry Data Tracking 1. **Total Industry Volume**: In October 2025, approximately 3.322 million vehicles were sold, with a month-on-month increase of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. New energy vehicles accounted for about 51.6% of the market share [2][36] 2. **Company Sales**: BYD, Geely, and FAW-Volkswagen were the top three in retail sales for October 2025, with sales of approximately 296,000, 266,000, and 136,000 vehicles, respectively [2] 3. **Weekly Data**: For November 1-30, 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles were about 2.263 million, down 7% year-on-year but up 1% month-on-month [38] 4. **Raw Material Prices**: As of December 5, 2025, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was approximately 93,250 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1% from the previous week [45] Industry News and Company Announcements - Several automakers announced purchase tax subsidy plans, including a maximum subsidy of 15,000 CNY from GAC and a cash discount of up to 17,000 CNY from Leap Motor [3][49] - Cao Cao Mobility announced a strategic goal for its Robotaxi service, aiming for a 100 billion CNY investment over ten years across 100 cities [3][49] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that lead in smart technology and those that align with the technological and model cycles, such as SAIC Motor, Xpeng Motors, Xiaomi, and Leap Motor [4][16] - In the parts sector, it recommends looking at companies involved in electric and intelligent incremental segments, including Huaguang Co., Chuanhuan Technology, Yinlun Co., and Horizon Robotics [4][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its future performance [4]. Core Insights - The company's ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) laser radar products continue to grow, with sales reaching 185,600 units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34%. Specifically, laser radar products for ADAS applications saw a 14.3% increase, with 150,000 units sold [1]. - The Robotaxi business is advancing, with significant partnerships established, including a collaboration with Didi Autonomous Driving for L4 Robotaxi equipped with RoboSense laser radar. The company has also signed mass production agreements with several leading Robotaxi and Robotruck firms [2]. - The company is expected to turn a profit in Q4 2025, with a record monthly delivery of over 120,000 laser radar units in October 2025, marking a key point for improving operational efficiency [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.24%, but incurred a net loss of 252 million yuan [1]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is projected at -176 million yuan, 207 million yuan, and 573 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of -138.82, 29.86 [4][11]. Revenue Growth Projections - Revenue is expected to grow significantly from 1.649 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.417 billion yuan in 2027, with annual growth rates of 47%, 37%, 59%, and 51% respectively [6][13]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has successfully secured production orders from 31 automotive manufacturers and suppliers, with a total of 134 models, and has achieved SOP (Start of Production) for 47 models from 15 manufacturers [1]. - The sales of laser radar products for robotics and other applications surged by 393.1% year-on-year, with 35,500 units sold in Q3 2025 [2].