债市有望延续"牛陡"行情 ——固收周报（2025.08.25-2025.08.29） 固定收益/固收周报 ◼ 核心观点 利率债：国债收益率长端上行，期限利差走阔：2025 年 08 月 22 日- 2025 年 08 月 29 日期间，央行总计开展 32,343.00 亿元逆回购操作， 共 26,150.00 亿元逆回购到期，净投放 6,193.00 亿元。银行间资金价格 多数上行，其中，DR001 下行 8.27BP 至 1.3295%；DR007 上行 4.89BP 至 1.5158%。利率债一级市场发行 5,025.97 亿元，到期债券总偿还量 5,161.89 亿元，净融资额为-135.92 亿元。国债现券收益率长端上行。 国债 1 年期、3 年期、5 年期、7 年期分别下行 0.09BP、2.88BP、0.02BP、 2.05BP 至 1.3698%、1.4776%、1.6322%、1.7320%，国债 10 年期上行 5.61BP 至 1.8379%。10Y-1Y 期限利差从 41.11BP 走阔至 46.81BP。 信用债：信用债到期收益率上行：2025 年 08 月 25 日-2025 年 0 ...

固定收益/固收点评 经济延续弱复苏 ——8 月 PMI 数据点评 外需延续修复，或在贸易环境缓和下进一步趋稳。8 月新出口订单指 数录得 47.20%，回升 0.10 个百分点；进口指数录得 48.00%，回升 0.20 个百分点。我们认为在中美贸易条件倘若持续缓和，其对我国出 口及其预期的扰动或加速减少，市场对贸易扰动的反应或降温。 价格端反映整治"内卷式"竞争政策效果，上下游协同扩张。制造 业原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数均有所回升，价差升至 4.20pct。8 月原材料呈现量价齐升：主要原材料购进价格指数上行至 53.30%，近三个月持续回升；采购量指数回升 0.90 个百分点至 50.40%。在产品销售端，出厂价格指数近三个月也呈现回升。 非制造业总体扩张加快。8 月官方非制造业 PMI 录得 50.3%，比前值 升 0.2 个百分点。服务业 PMI 为 50.5%，比前值上升 0.5 个百分点。 从行业看，资本市场服务、铁路运输、航空运输、电信广播电视及卫 星传输服务等行业商务活动指数均位于高位景气区间，业务总量较快 增长。建筑业季节性波动。建筑业商务活动指数为 49.1%，比前值降 1.5 个百 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has achieved steady growth in performance, with a revenue of 1.876 billion yuan and a net profit of 163 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 2.34% and 69.69% respectively [2][3]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 were 32.64% and 8.21%, showing a decrease of 3.62 percentage points and an increase of 2.85 percentage points respectively [2]. - The company is focusing on its core consumer electronics business while actively expanding into new clients and sectors, which is expected to mitigate performance volatility caused by industry cycles [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.876 billion yuan and a net profit of 163 million yuan, with a gross margin of 32.64% and a net margin of 8.21% [2][3]. - The company’s expenses were well-controlled, with sales, management, financial, and R&D expense ratios at 9.14%, 5.9%, 1.58%, and 12.55% respectively [2]. Business Segments - The new energy business showed rapid growth, generating approximately 570 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 30.3% [3]. - The semiconductor business also experienced significant growth, with revenue reaching approximately 35.84 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 314.4% [3]. - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with CATL for charging and swapping station equipment, which is expected to benefit from ongoing construction in this area [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 515 million yuan, 734 million yuan, and 856 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.15, 1.64, and 1.92 yuan [4][5]. - The report anticipates a multi-driver business structure with "3C + New Energy + Automotive" as the growth engines [3][4].

鱼跃医疗(002223) 公司研究/公司点评 业绩表现稳健，海外布局成果显著 ——鱼跃医疗 2025 年中报业绩点评 ◼ 事件 公司发布 2025 年中报业绩，实现营收 46.59 亿元（yoy+8.16%），实现 归母净利润 12.03 亿元（yoy+7.37%），实现扣非归母净利润 9.14 亿元 （yoy-5.22%）。分季度看，2025Q2 实现营收 22.23 亿元（yoy+7.06%）， 实现归母净利润 5.78 亿元（yoy+25.43%），实现扣非归母净利润 4.01 亿元（yoy-2.98%）。 ◼ 核心观点 海外收入增势亮眼，多项产品放量支撑业绩增长。25 年上半年，公司 实现外销 6.07 亿元，同比增长 26.63%，海外业务正逐步成为业绩重 要驱动因素。分产品看，呼吸治疗解决方案实现收入 16.74 亿元，同 比增长 1.93%，其中家用呼吸机产品收入同比增速超 40%；血糖管理 及 POCT 解决方案收入 6.74 亿元，同比增长 20.00%，CGM 业务实现 高速增长；家用健康检测解决方案收入 10.14 亿元，同比增长 15.22%， 其中电子血压计实现双位数增长，红外体温计 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" for the electronics sector [7] Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in the computing power industry, including the successful tape-out of the world's first thermodynamic computing chip, which can enhance energy efficiency by up to 1000 times [1][17] - The smart glasses market has seen a year-on-year shipment increase of 110%, indicating strong growth potential in the edge AI sector [2][18] - The tablet market in China has experienced a 15.6% year-on-year increase in shipments, suggesting a recovery in the consumer electronics industry [2][19] - The domestic electronic beam lithography machine "Xizhi" has completed development, marking a major breakthrough in high-end chip manufacturing capabilities [3][20] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - The computing power industry is expected to thrive with the introduction of advanced chips, leading to investment opportunities in related sectors [1][5] - The smart glasses market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on AI and AR integration, presenting investment opportunities in edge AI [2][5] - The consumer electronics sector is recovering, with increased tablet shipments indicating potential for investment [2][5] - The successful development of the "Xizhi" lithography machine strengthens the domestic supply chain, creating further investment opportunities [3][5] 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Electronics Index rose by 7.02%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.64 percentage points [4][22] - Among the sub-sectors, components saw the highest increase at 9.88%, while optical and optoelectronic sectors lagged at 2.36% [4][25] 3. Industry News - The report notes the successful tape-out of the CN101 chip, which is designed for AI and high-performance computing, achieving significant energy efficiency improvements [34] - The launch of the "Xizhi" electronic beam lithography machine represents a significant advancement in domestic chip manufacturing capabilities [34] - The smart glasses market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by technological advancements and market demand [35] 4. Company Dynamics - Companies such as Weicai Technology and Tianyue Advanced are highlighted for their roles in the computing power and semiconductor sectors, respectively [36] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining strong partnerships and innovation in product development to capitalize on market trends [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth with a revenue of 1.171 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.38%, and a net profit of 76 million yuan, up 4.22% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on the IP derivative business, which is expected to reach a market size of 202.8 billion yuan in China by 2025, indicating significant growth potential [2] - The overseas business has continued to grow, with revenue reaching 443 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.54%, and a gross margin of 32.43%, up 1.99 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.171 billion yuan, a 2.38% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 76 million yuan, reflecting a 4.22% growth [1] - The company expects revenues of 2.958 billion yuan, 3.198 billion yuan, and 3.502 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 6.5%, 8.1%, and 9.5% [4] - The net profit forecast for the same years is 167 million yuan, 202 million yuan, and 233 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 20.8%, and 15.5% [4] Business Strategy - The company is leveraging its brand, design, IP resources, manufacturing scale, and channel advantages to enhance its competitive edge [1] - The IP matrix includes both externally licensed IPs such as "Zhu Xian" and "Detective Conan," and self-developed IPs like "Xi Xi Jiang" and "MIMO," aiming to expand product categories and improve IP operations [2] Market Outlook - The report highlights the potential of the IP derivative market in China, which is projected to grow significantly, providing a favorable environment for the company's strategic focus [2] - The overseas business is expected to continue its growth trajectory despite challenges in the international market, with a focus on high-value products and large orders [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue growth of 30.77% year-on-year in H1 2025, driven by active market expansion, with total revenue reaching 374 million yuan [1][2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 41.87% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified price competition in the domestic automotive market and increased fixed costs from ongoing fundraising projects [1][3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from automotive gears, electric tool gears, reducers, and other equipment was 199 million, 68 million, 87 million, and 19 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.35%, 6.26%, 101.69%, and 22.35% [2] - The gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 18.96% and 5.50%, down by 3.23 and 3.83 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024 [3] R&D and Technological Advancements - The company has developed core technologies for ultra-hard, ultra-fine high-speed cutting hard alloy gear hobs, achieving an industry-leading minimum modulus of 0.05mm, which meets the high-precision gear processing needs of industries such as robotics [4] - The development of core equipment for planetary roller screw processing is on track, with plans for further optimization to achieve mass production and cost reduction [4] Future Growth Prospects - The company is investing in a project in Vietnam to produce 1 million sets of precision transmission structure products annually, with part of the production equipment already installed and in trial production [5][12] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 765 million, 854 million, and 956 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.9%, 11.7%, and 11.9% respectively [13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the release of DeepSeek-V3.1, which significantly upgrades its technical architecture and optimizes parameter precision to adapt to domestic chips, promoting the development of domestic computing power chips and the AI industry [16][33] - KTC's launch of the new KTC AI interactive glasses is seen as a positive development for edge-side investment opportunities, with the product gaining consumer recognition [17][33] - Google's Pixel 10 series emphasizes AI integration, indicating a recovery in the consumer electronics industry and presenting investment opportunities within the related supply chain [18][33] - The introduction of direct-write lithography equipment by Hefei Chip Microelectronics Equipment Co., Ltd. marks a significant breakthrough in the domestic supply chain, reinforcing confidence in domestic alternatives [19][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic computing power opportunities following the release of DeepSeek's new version [20] - It suggests investing in edge-side technologies due to the launch of KTC's AI glasses [20] - The consumer electronics sector is highlighted for its recovery potential, particularly with Google's new AI-integrated products [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic supply chains, particularly with the introduction of new lithography equipment [20] 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Electronics Index rose by 8.95%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.77 percentage points [21][24] - The semiconductor sector led the gains with a 12.26% increase, while the components sector lagged with a 1.68% increase [24][26] 3. Industry News - DeepSeek's V3.1 release marks a new phase in China's AI industry, focusing on domestic chip compatibility [33] - KTC's AI glasses are designed for comfort and functionality, supporting various AI features [33] - Google's Pixel 10 series showcases enhanced AI capabilities, reinforcing its commitment to integrating AI into consumer products [34] - The successful introduction of direct-write lithography equipment supports the domestic semiconductor packaging industry [34]

虹软科技(688088) 公司研究/公司点评 业绩增长迅速，AI 眼镜业务进展顺利 ——虹软科技 2025 年半年报点评 ◼ 事件描述 公司发布 2025 年半年度报告，该公司营业收入为 4.1 亿元，同比增长 7.73%。归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 8853.61 万元，同比增长 44.06%，归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为 7201.08 万元，同比增长 33.86%。基本每股收益为 0.22 元。 ◼ 核心观点 手机业务略有波动，不影响手机业务全年情况：根据公司 2025 年半年 报，公司移动智能终端视觉解决方案实现营业收入 33,932.23 万元， 同比增长 2.23%。公司在投资者交流纪要中表示，Q2 手机业务收入 波动的主要原因是客户项目验收延迟至下一季度所致，属于正常现象， 不影响手机业务全年的情况。公司客户常年稳定，今年依然看好包含 手机在内的移动智能终端业务的成长性。 智能汽车业务维持较高增长：根据公司 2025 年半年报，智能汽车及其 他 AIoT 智能设备视觉解决方案实现营业收入 6,465.16 万元，同比 增长 49.09%。舱内业务持续发力，2025 年上半年， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved significant revenue growth, with a total revenue of 158 million yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 29.28%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 47 million yuan, up 46.03% year-over-year [1]. - The overseas market showed remarkable growth, with overseas revenue of 38 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 50.96%, driven by the rapid expansion of hemostatic products and dura mater medical glue [2]. - The company focuses on the neurosurgery high-value consumables sector, with core products expected to benefit from volume-based procurement policies, leading to market share growth [3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a gross margin of 80.59%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to improved margins in key product lines [2]. - The sales net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 29.98%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.66 percentage points due to effective cost control [2]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 105 million yuan, 137 million yuan, and 176 million yuan, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 33.3%, 30.1%, and 28.4% [3][5]. - Revenue projections for the years 2025 to 2027 are 375 million yuan, 487 million yuan, and 618 million yuan, with growth rates of 34.7%, 29.8%, and 27.0% respectively [5].