汽车 行业研究/行业周报 2025 年 9 月新能源汽车市占率约 49.7% ——汽车行业周报（2025/10/13~2025/10/17） ◼ 行情回顾 过去一周(2025/10/13~2025/10/17），申万汽车行业下跌 2.53%，表现 弱于同花顺全 A，所有一级行业中涨跌幅排名第 27。细分板块涨跌 幅：过去一周(2025/10/13~2025/10/17），摩托车及其他涨幅最大，汽 车零部件跌幅最大。摩托车及其他上涨 0.58%，商用车下跌 0.15%， 乘用车下跌 0.28%，汽车服务下跌 2.40%，汽车零部件下跌 4.04%。 ◼ 核心数据 数据跟踪： 1）行业总量：据中汽协数据，2025 年 9 月汽车销量约 322.6 万辆， 环比约+12.9%，同比约+14.9%。2025 年 9 月新能源汽车市占率约 49.7%。 2）车企端：据乘联分会数据，2025 年 9 月，比亚迪、吉利和一汽大 众零售销量位列前三，分别约 34.7 万辆、23.2 万辆和 13.9 万辆，份 额分别约为 15.5%、10.4%和 6.2%。其中吉利汽车、长城汽车、长安 汽车分别同比约+42.8%、+37.3 ...

汽车 行业研究/行业周报 吉利汽车拟实施最高 23 亿港元股份回购计划，问界 M8 于 9 月 29 日交付突破 10 万台 ——汽车行业周报（2025/09/29~2025/10/10） 4）原材料： 据 iFind 数据，截至 2025 年 10 月 10 日，国内电池级碳 酸锂价格约为 73550 元/吨，较 2025 年 9 月 29 日变化 0%。据 iFind 数据，截至 2025 年 10 月 10 日，国内铜价格约为 86780 元/吨，较 2025 年 9 月 29 日变化 5%。 ◼ 行业新闻及公司公告 行业新闻：吉利汽车拟实施最高 23 亿港元股份回购计划。9 月 29 日，问界 M8 交付突破 10 万台 过去一周(2025/09/29~2025/10/10），申万汽车行业下跌 1.26%，表现 弱于同花顺全 A，所有一级行业中涨跌幅排名第 26。细分板块涨跌 幅：过去一周(2025/09/29~2025/10/10），汽车服务涨幅最大，汽车零 部件跌幅最大。汽车服务上涨 1.70%，商用车上涨 0.79%，摩托车及 其他下跌 0.95%，乘用车下跌 0.98%，汽车零部件下跌 1.7 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [6] Core Viewpoints - NAND Flash prices are expected to rise by 5-10% in Q4 2025 due to the spillover effect from QLC products, with an average price fluctuation of 1.12% observed in the previous week [1] - DRAM prices have shown a significant increase, with an average fluctuation of 7.83% in the last week, driven by strong demand in the data center sector, particularly for AI servers [2] - HBM chips are in high demand and are projected to be a core growth driver in the storage sector by 2026, as supply-demand imbalances are expected to worsen [2] Summary by Sections NAND Market - TrendForce predicts a 5-10% price increase for NAND Flash in Q4 2025, influenced by the demand for QLC products [1] - The previous week saw price fluctuations for 22 NAND categories ranging from -1.64% to 2.74%, with 19 categories experiencing price increases [1] DRAM Market - Micron has raised its forecast for server shipment growth in 2025 to approximately 10%, driven by traditional and AI server demand [2] - The last week recorded DRAM price fluctuations between 3.22% and 11.07%, with all 18 categories showing an upward trend [2] HBM Market - Micron's CEO indicated that HBM chip supply will be insufficient, with significant demand growth expected in 2026, outpacing overall DRAM growth [2] Market Dynamics - The embedded NAND and LPDDR4X products have seen widespread price increases due to rising upstream costs and strong market demand [3] - The market sentiment for LPDDR4X has turned bullish, with expectations of significant price hikes following a period of price stability [3] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the HBM industry chain and the semiconductor cycle recovery, recommending stocks such as Saiteng Co., Yishitong, and others [4] - For storage chips, the report suggests focusing on companies like Dongxin Co. and others, as the industry is expected to rebound due to supply-driven price increases and rising AI-related demand [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most treasury bond yields rose, and the term spread widened. The central bank conducted a total of 22,068.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 6,340.00 billion yuan. Inter - bank capital prices increased. The primary issuance of interest - rate bonds was 6,645.39 billion yuan, and the net financing was 4,664.25 billion yuan [1]. - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, the credit bond issuance volume increased month - on - month. The primary market issued 1,231 new credit bonds, with a total issuance scale of 16,911.73 billion yuan. The net financing was 3,938.10 billion yuan. The credit bond yields mostly rose [2]. - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, European stock indexes were divided, most US Treasury yields increased, the US dollar index strengthened, most non - US currencies weakened, crude oil prices fell, and gold prices rose [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest - rate Bonds: Most Treasury Bond Yields Rose, and the Term Spread Widened 1.1 Liquidity Observation: Net Liquidity Injection, Rising Capital Prices - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the central bank conducted 22,068.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 6,340.00 billion yuan. Inter - bank and exchange capital prices increased. For example, DR001 rose 9.98BP to 1.4644%, and GC001 rose 5.90BP to 1.4110% [15]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance: Increased Net Financing, Decreased Local Government Bond Issuance - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 6,645.39 billion yuan, and the net financing was 4,664.25 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds decreased compared with the previous period [27]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading: Most Treasury Bond Yields Rose, and the Term Spread Widened - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most treasury bond yields rose. The 1 - year yield decreased 1.00BP to 1.3900%, while the 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields rose 1.51BP, 0.47BP, 4.89BP, and 1.19BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 46.70BP to 48.89BP. The yields of China Development Bank bonds were divided, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 45.04BP to 40.04BP [32]. 2. Credit Bonds: Most Credit Bond Yields Rose 2.1 Primary Market Issuance: Issuance Volume Increased Month - on - Month - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, the primary market issued 1,231 new credit bonds, with a total issuance scale of 16,911.73 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4,522.11 billion yuan. The net financing was 3,938.10 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest issuance amount. AAA - rated bonds accounted for 71.79% of the total issuance. The issuance was mainly in the 3 - 5 - year term, and the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [45]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading: Most Credit Bond Yields Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most urban investment bond yields rose, with the 7 - year AAA and AA - rated bonds having the largest increase of 4.50BP. Most medium - and short - term note yields rose, with the 5 - year AAA - rated note having the largest increase of 5.01BP [55]. 2.3 One - Week Credit Default Event Review - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, one enterprise's credit bonds defaulted [56]. 3. Weekly Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 European and American Stock Indexes Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.05%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.22%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.21%. European stock indexes were divided, with the German DAX Index falling 0.25%, the French CAC40 Index rising 0.36%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index falling 0.72%. Asian - Pacific stock indexes rose and fell unevenly [58]. 3.2 Most US Treasury Yields Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 4.00BP, 5.00BP, 7.00BP, and 8.00BP respectively, while the 1 - year yield decreased 6.00BP. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 14.00BP to 54.00BP [60]. 3.3 The US Dollar Index Strengthened, and Most Non - US Currencies Weakened - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the US dollar index rose 0.30%. Most non - US currencies weakened. For example, the British pound against the US dollar fell 0.64%, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.21% [64]. 3.4 Crude Oil Prices Fell, and Gold Prices Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, COMEX gold futures prices rose 1.09%, and London spot gold prices rose 0.33%. Brent crude oil prices fell 0.46%, and WTI crude oil prices fell 0.02% [66]. 4. Investment Recommendations - As the cross - quarter capital demand increases near the end of the quarter, the central bank adjusts the 14 - day reverse repurchase operations to relieve liquidity pressure. In the short term, it may boost the bond market sentiment and push down interest rates. In the medium and long term, it can enhance the stability of the bond market. It is expected that the bond market will remain volatile in the fourth quarter. Interest - rate bonds should mainly be traded in bands, and credit bonds should focus on urban investment bonds and leading industrial bonds [4][70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [6]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a robust growth trajectory, supported by favorable policies and increasing sales of new energy vehicles [4][16]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on companies that lead in smart technology and are aligned with the technological and model cycles [4][17]. Market Review - The automotive sector rose by 2.95% from September 15 to September 19, 2025, outperforming the overall A-share market [18]. - Among sub-sectors, automotive parts saw the highest increase at 4.29%, while commercial vehicles experienced the largest decline at 0.98% [20][23]. Industry Data Tracking - In August 2025, total automotive sales reached approximately 2.857 million units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.1% and a year-on-year increase of 16.4% [25][26]. - The retail sales of passenger vehicles for the first half of September 2025 were 732,000 units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4% but a month-on-month increase of 6% [36]. - The market share of new energy vehicles in August 2025 was approximately 48.8%, indicating a strong demand for electric vehicles [34]. Industry Dynamics - GAC Group and Huawei are collaborating to create a new high-end smart electric vehicle brand named "Qijing" [44]. - Leap Motor has announced the restart of its automotive manufacturing plans in Europe, aiming to launch two new models tailored for the European market [44]. Company Announcements - Junsheng Electronics received project confirmations from two major OEMs, with a total lifecycle order value estimated at approximately RMB 15 billion, set to begin production in 2027 [44]. - Licheng Group has been awarded a project for aluminum alloy wheels, expected to start production in July 2027, with a total sales value of about RMB 5.8 billion over the project's lifecycle [46].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in collaborative robot development, ranking second worldwide with a market share of 13% in 2023, and first in China [1][3]. - The collaborative robot market is projected to grow from USD 1.0395 billion in 2023 to USD 4.95 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.6% [1]. - The company has a strong focus on research and development, with over 25% of its workforce consisting of industry experts and engineers [3]. - The company has launched 27 robot models across four series, with applications in various sectors including automotive, electronics, healthcare, and agriculture [3][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is recognized for its proprietary full-stack technology in collaborative robot development, covering design, manufacturing, and key component development [3]. - The founder holds a significant share of 27.97%, indicating concentrated ownership and experienced management [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 27.08% year-on-year, reaching CNY 153 million, with a gross margin improvement of 3.11 percentage points to 46.98% [10][11]. - The adjusted net loss narrowed to CNY 23 million in the same period, reflecting ongoing operational improvements [10]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 516 million, CNY 703 million, and CNY 949 million respectively, with an expected adjusted net profit turning positive in 2027 [11][13]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, driven by its dual strategy of upgrading collaborative robots and innovating in humanoid robotics [10][11]. Market Position - The company has established a global sales network covering over 100 countries, enhancing its market reach and application of humanoid robots [3]. - Collaborations with leading academic and industrial partners further validate the company's technology and market position [3].

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - Cumulative public fiscal revenue from January to August increased by 0.3% year-on-year, up from 0.1%[1] - Cumulative public fiscal expenditure for the same period rose by 3.1%, slightly down from 3.4%[1] - Government fund revenue decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 0.7%[1] - Government fund expenditure surged by 30.0%, down from 31.7%[1] Monthly Financial Data - In August, public fiscal revenue reached 1.24 trillion yuan, while expenditure was 1.86 trillion yuan[1] - Government fund revenue for August was 0.33 trillion yuan, with expenditures at 0.83 trillion yuan[1] Fiscal Structure Insights - From January to August, public fiscal expenditure totaled 179,324 billion yuan, with central government spending accounting for 14.8% (up 8.0% year-on-year) and local government spending at 85.2% (up 2.3% year-on-year)[2] - Social security and employment expenditures increased by 10.0% year-on-year, while environmental protection spending rose by 6.6%[2] Revenue Composition - Total public fiscal revenue for January to August was 148,198 billion yuan, with central revenue at 43.4% (down 1.7% year-on-year) and local revenue at 56.6% (up 1.8% year-on-year)[3] - Tax revenue constituted 81.7% of total revenue, with a year-on-year change of 0.0%[3] Investment Recommendations - The stabilization of corporate income tax revenue, which turned positive year-on-year, is seen as beneficial for fiscal policy continuity and stability[4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong demand for DDR4 modules, particularly driven by AI and networking-related IPC customer needs, which is expected to boost overall revenue performance [2][26] - SK Hynix has successfully completed the development and mass production of HBM4, which features double the data transmission channels compared to the previous generation, significantly enhancing bandwidth and energy efficiency [2][27] - The supply of server DDR4 remains tight, leading to an increase in DDR4 RDIMM prices this month, with expectations of continued price increases in Q4 2025 due to supply constraints in DDR5 [3][28] Summary by Sections NAND - SK Hynix has begun supplying its mobile NAND flash solution ZUFS 4.1, which utilizes zoned storage technology to enhance data management efficiency and operating system speed [1][26] - The average price fluctuation for 22 types of NAND particles ranged from -7.56% to 7.91%, with an average change of -0.06% [1] DRAM - The average price fluctuation for 18 types of DRAM ranged from -0.37% to 4.51%, with an average increase of 1.68% [2] - The demand for DDR4 modules is particularly strong, with positive outlooks for the second half of 2025 [2][26] HBM - SK Hynix's HBM4 product is expected to improve AI service performance by up to 69% and features a data processing speed exceeding 10 Gbps [2][27] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the server DDR4 market is experiencing a supply shortage, which is driving prices up [3][28] - The DDR5 market is currently stable, but supply tightness is anticipated to lead to price increases in the future [3][28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from the rapid development of advanced computing chips in the HBM industry, such as Saiteng Co., Yishitong, and Lianrui New Materials [4] - For the storage chip sector, companies like Dongxin Co. and Zhaoyi Innovation are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to recovering inventory levels and rising demand driven by AI [4]

Group 1: Credit and Financing Trends - In August, the growth rate of RMB loans decreased to 6.8% from the previous 6.9%[1] - The stock of social financing grew by 8.8% year-on-year, down from 9.0% previously, ending an upward trend[1] - Government bonds contributed approximately 1.30 percentage points to the increase in social financing, while RMB loans had a negative contribution of about -0.32 percentage points[1] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Market Impact - M1 growth rose to 6.0%, while M2 remained stable at 8.8%, narrowing the gap between M1 and M2 growth rates to -2.8%[2] - Household deposits continued to shift towards non-bank financial institutions, with household deposit growth declining[2] - The impact of monetary flow on capital markets is influenced by various factors, including employment expectations and asset price forecasts[3] Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - The potential risk of changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations could impact the market[4] - The effectiveness and timing of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets will be crucial for future loan growth[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its position as a key supplier in the domestic smart driving chip and algorithm market, benefiting from the trend of automotive intelligence [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a sales revenue of 1.567 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 67.06%, while the net profit was -5.233 billion yuan, slightly worse than the previous year's -5.089 billion yuan [1]. - The market share for basic and overall assisted driving solutions among Chinese automakers reached 45.8% and 32.4%, respectively, maintaining the leading position [1]. - The shipment of the company's Journey series processors doubled to 1.98 million units, with hardware supporting highway assisted driving reaching 980,000 units, a sixfold increase compared to the same period last year [1]. - The sales gross margin decreased to 65.36% from 79.04% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in revenue composition, with a significant increase in automotive product solutions [2]. - The company has secured nearly 400 new model designations, with over 100 models featuring highway assisted driving capabilities, and is actively expanding its overseas customer base [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.524 billion yuan, 5.254 billion yuan, and 7.898 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net profits of -1.836 billion yuan, -1.019 billion yuan, and 211 million yuan [4][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the automotive intelligence trend, with a projected annual revenue growth rate of 48% in 2026 and 49% in 2027 [6][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -0.13 yuan in 2026 to 0.02 yuan in 2027 [6].